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Can we please stop with the "Early who is never late" crap? It hurts my face.
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People who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do. -Isaac Asimov
Originally posted by C0|dB|00ded
Who else posts fake **** all day in order to maintain the acrimony? Wingnuts, that's who. -
I thought maybe I was the only one who drew in a sharp breath every time I heard that.Originally posted by shock View PostComment
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Imagine how Cleanthony feels. He's probably had to listen to that crap his whole life.Originally posted by Shox21 View Post"We can't win at home. We can't win on the road. As the general manager, I just can't figure out where else to play." -Pat WilliamsComment
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Pre-season rankings are about as accurate as a weather man predicting the percentile chance that it will rain tomorrow.
Therefore, I'm perfectly happy with any ranking within the top 25. Like, as pointed out, being predicted 1at and losing in the very first round of the NIT, really, really, sucks!Comment
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Who was that? It wasn't Kentucky this year...Comment
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Preseason rankings out-perform the final rankings at predicting which teams will win in the NCAA tournament. There are always some big whiffs in the preseason rankings but for the most part they are pretty good. This is probably because the rankings at the end of the year aren't supposed to be predictive but instead focus on who has had the best season.Originally posted by 60Shock View PostComment
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Is this true? I kind of doubt it, but I could be convinced with some stats. The most I've heard is team that have underperformed their predicted finish are more likely to go further than those who have overperformed. It is basically regression to their mean. Noticing some movement in that regard is a big difference though then this claim.Originally posted by Shockeriffic View PostShocker Nation, NYCComment
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It's the kind of thing that shouldn't be true but it is. It sort of makes sense when you think about it. The preseason poll lets the voters pick the team they think is the best based off of talent and talent alone. The final regular season poll is a reflection on which team has won the most games against the best competition but not necessarily the teams that are most likely to continue to do so in the future. There is a little bit of bias in these studies because they don't penalize the preseason poll for the big misses. For example, Kentucky was rated as a top 5 team. However, looking at the W-L record based off the NCAA tournament doesn't hurt because Kentucky wasn't even good enough to make the field.Originally posted by MadaboutWu View Post
The paragraph below is from a kenpom article a few years ago talking about picking the winner of the NCAA tournament but the principle holds for the rest of the field as well. The preseason poll is more accurate than the final poll.
"Six times the preseason #1 has won the national title compared to three for the top-ranked team at the end of the regular season. The preseason #1 has made it to the title game a total of 10 times compared to just six for the final #1. It’s stunning to me that armed with 25-30 games of additional information, the writers’ ability to identify the nation’s best team* gets worse!"
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