WSU VS. LOUISVILLE PREDICTIONS AND PREGAME DISCUSSIONS

[shox2k2]

Here is a great breakdown. Includes transcript of today's press conferences at the end. http://cardsandcats.com/2013/04/04/f...wichita-state/

[forevershockerfan]

The media keeps saying, "How is Wichita State going to handle the Louisville pressure?" What I want to know is, "How is Louisville going to handle the Shocker pressure?"

It is a strength of ours to handle pressure and have been known to make teams pay for over-doing their pressure. If we could find a way to stay under 10 turnovers, that would really help our cause. No more than 12 in a game like this will be welcomed.

[ShockerPrez]

Chancellor, Sith Lord's are our specialty!

[The Mad Hatter]

@The Mad Hatter you mind giving a starting five man vs man breakdown?

Here is a great breakdown. Includes transcript of today's press conferences at the end. http://cardsandcats.com/2013/04/04/f...wichita-state/

Well the link above really does a pretty good job, but I would mention that I think that we will see EO starting and Early coming off the bench (that site mentioned EO might start, but thought it could be in place of Hall which hasn't been how we have run our lineups). I will offer a few thoughts though.

Peyton Siva vs. Malcolm Armstead
Both guys will look to penetrate the defense. Siva depend more of quickness to blow by, while Malcolm uses his strength to create space. Both guys will have shot blocking weakside help to aid them in defending the drive. Siva will want to make the pass to beat the shot blocker, while Malcolm will tend to shoot high over the shot blocker and let our offensive rebounders go to work. Malcolm is a better 3-point shooter than Peyton. Both guys have a history of forcing the action too much in certain games and getting turnover prone, but both make their team's offensive go. Louisville has eaten up people with their screen action for Siva, so how well we defend him will have as much to do with our bigs playing those screens well as it does Malcolm's D.

Russ Smith vs. Tekele Cotton
Smith has a lot of Iverson in his game - undersized but a dynamic scorer who isn't afraid to take it to the hole. He also keys a lot of their perimeter pressure on the other end of the floor and forces a lot of turnovers. Unlike Siva, he won't be looking to pass first. Our bigs will need to give good help to Tekele on screens and as shot blockers. Tekele has generally done a good job of denying the ball, which will be key along with forcing Smith to settle for jump shots. Like Siva and Armstrong, this is again a speed vs. power matchup. The danger for Tekele will be in picking up fouls on Smith's drives, putting Smith on the line where he is money. Tekele can even that up by being strong with the ball on the other end of floor and drawing foul's on Smith if he gets too aggressive going for the steal (along with our other guards). Tekele won't match Smith's scoring output, but he has a chance to win the efficiency battle. As good as Smith is, his shot selection is not always wise (and if Tekele does his job well and cuts off the easy shot, Smith has a tendency to jack up the shot anyway instead of reseting the offense). Tekele, on the other hand, has been very good about being selective and taking only very good shots, and hitting them.

Wayne Blackshear vs. Ron Baker
Blackshear gets the fewest minutes of any of UL's starters (less in fact than his backup Luke Hancock). This is UL's least glamorous position. Blackshear will run the system on both ends, but isn't the playmaker. Aside from Ron being a better scorer, Ron clearly has more a a playmaker role for us. Key stat: In 37 games, Blackshear has 24 assists; in 17 games Baker has 32 assists.

Chane Behanan vs. Carl Hall (this could be vs. Cle, but I'm penciling in Carl to start at the 4)
Both Behanan and Hall are undersized, but with good strength (Behanan goes 6'6" 250). In spite of his bulk, Behanan has good quickness. Behanan is good on the offensive glass and can hurt you with put back baskets, so the rebounding battle here will be key. Whoever starts, Behanan will see a good dose of both Cle and Carl, which should make him defend both inside and out, but he is capable of doing both (and generally does not committ many fouls). Behanan is a little hard to figure out because he can go off for huge games, but can also disappear at times. This is why it is particularly important for Carl to keep him off the offensive glass early so that he doesn't gain any rhythym.

Gorgui Dieng vs Ehimen Orukpe (once again could be Carl - and Carl will see time at the 5)
Both teams will depend on help side shot blocking out of their center to deal with the penetration of the opposition guards. Both Dieng and EO put up very good shot blocking and rebounding numbers. Dieng clearly has far more offense than EO. EO will need to both hedge well on picks and recover to close off passes to Dieng. Louisville also has the advantage that Dieng can hit the mid-range jumper which can pull our shot blocker away from the rim, while EO can't do the same. Even if you cut off Dieng's shot, he is a very good passer, so the team must be aware of cutting players when Dieng has the ball. On the other end, while EO won't put up a lot of offensive production, I think he can help in two ways: 1. with Dieng being aggressive on blocking shots, the opportunity for offensive rebounds will be there and 2. EO needs to screen the lane - which he is generally good at - to open up lanes for Armstead to attack.

[Kung Wu]

Awesome overview!!

[Joneildu]

The "Russ Smith may have poor selection" commentary is about a year late. This season he's been the most efficient player in the league. Source. Kenpom PoY ratings.

[ShockerFever]

The "Russ Smith may have poor selection" commentary is about a year late. This season he's been the most efficient player in the league. Source. Kenpom PoY ratings.

Hence the word "may".

On a WSU board, you don't have to question every perceived UL slight and make it into a big deal. Kenpom also predicted WSU defeats to Pittsburgh, Gonzaga, and Ohio State over the last few weeks.

[Joneildu]

He's also predicted 4 of the last 5 champions. Take anecdotes as they are, not as an indictment on a body of work. And I was correcting something that was overtly false. It wasn't a slight, it was wrong. There's lots of slights in the text, I only corrected the one I felt was factually incorrect.

[The Mad Hatter]

The "Russ Smith may have poor selection" commentary is about a year late. This season he's been the most efficient player in the league. Source. Kenpom PoY ratings.

Don't get me wrong, he is generally very efficient, but that is because he is so good at getting to the basket. It is no easy task to cut off his penetration, but when it is cut off, I've still seen him attempt some awkward jump shots. In other words, he no longer is a guy that will jack up a bad shot before trying to attack the basket for a better one, but if you cut that off, he will often be committed to shooting rather than resetting the offense. It's just the nature of being a volume shooter, which he is (over 500 FG attempts on the year). You know he is going to get a lot of shots up, but you have to make sure they are jump shots not layups.

[ShockerFever]

Yep, I'm definitely noticing the "Ohio State drift" with these guys as we get closer to gametime.

Here goes another thread down the tubes.

[vancedave56]

WSU attacks the Cards press and scores consistently; the Cards call off the press. The real issue then becomes how do the Shockers handle the Cards match-up zone?

[Joneildu]

Yep, I'm definitely noticing the "Ohio State drift" with these guys as we get closer to gametime.

Here goes another thread down the tubes.

I'm sorry, have I thrown your program under the bus in a single post or done something insulting to these forums? I've been incredibly cordial.

And to the other guy, yes, players forced into jump shots tend to be more inefficient. But Russ has been passing it hose circumstances and biding time for a better shot, as reflected in efficiency ratings. The post was great, I was just correcting the myth (largely perpetuated in relation to last season) that Russ Smith just throws up shots poorly.

[KC Shox]

Joneildu, we all understand that we are facing the best team in the nation. In fact, this would be the upset of all upsets should we come away with a win. Also, if we come away with the W, the championship game will be a lot easier than the semi-final game against you should we be so fortunate enough to get that far.

I'm not telling you to stop posting, and I'm only speaking for myself here because I've predicted us to lose to you guys, but quite frankly, I'm 'Louisvilled' out. I just want to enjoy the ride, soak up all the WSU love and want the game to get here already.

[vancedave56]

Only have to win one game - not best of 7.
Only have to win by one point.
Focus on the task at hand.
Anything is possible.

[The Mad Hatter]

I'm sorry, have I thrown your program under the bus in a single post or done something insulting to these forums? I've been incredibly cordial.

And to the other guy, yes, players forced into jump shots tend to be more inefficient. But Russ has been passing it hose circumstances and biding time for a better shot, as reflected in efficiency ratings. The post was great, I was just correcting the myth (largely perpetuated in relation to last season) that Russ Smith just throws up shots poorly.

It isn't so much the tone as the need to jump on any poster that dares to suggest that a Louisville player or the team as a whole has a weakness. It doesn't seem to matter how nuanced the criticism is, it doesn't seem to matter how much it is prefaced by saying how good Louisville is - it seems that every single time someone suggests that there is a vulnerability that WSU might be able to exploit, we have 5 Louisville posters immediately chiming in to explain that no weakness exists and that such comparisons are unfair.

I know this is the product of a long week for all of us to wait for the game to actually happen. I know that Louisville fans have been generally good (make no mistake, we are getting way more credit on their boards than we did from teams like Pitt and tOSU). But it just makes you look insecure if you can't let even the slightest criticisms of your team pass by without pouncing all over them.