Official Meltdown Thread

[Ricardo del Rio]

When was the last time that a team won the Valley with 5 or more losses? Probably never or maybe once a long time ago.

So to win the Valley, the Shocks need to go 6-2 at a minimum in the remaining Valley games. I am not sure 4 losses will be good enough to win the Valley.

If CU ends with more than 3 losses, I will be most surprised.

The loss to IN State stings like hell.

[SB Shock]

Wait.. so you're counting the 50/50 games as losses?

No I don't count them as anything. Those are probabilities. That means if u play 10 times at 50/50 u will expect to win 5 of those 10. But if u played another 10, maybe you win 7, then maybe u played another ten and only win 3 of 10. But overall in those 30 games - u still average 50/50.

So I have developed a script where u take those probabilities and in this case ran 1400 simulation of this 8 game span. It says we should expect to win 5, but could be less than 5 if basically we lose to many of the 50/50 or lose one where we should have won. Likewise if wsu wins all their 50/50 games then they could go 6-2 or 7-1.

Another mistake is we assume 90% means 100%. It doesn't. Just ask ISUB about that. They had a 90% against SIU and lost. Bet they would really wish they had another chance - they might really regret that loss come post season selection. These probabilities basically assume linearity, but there are non-linearity they they can not account for like bad refs, injuries, foul trouble, flu, or somebody throwing a hot dog at the ref.

Hope that helps understand the context of all it means. It is just like the SPC high risk days - they don't mean u are going to get hit by a tornado, just there is a higher risk than normal. It means wsu is at a higher risk of losing if they don't play focused.

[Kung Wu]

No I don't count them as anything. Those are probabilities. That means if u play 10 times at 50/50 u will expect to win 5 of those 10. But if u played another 10, maybe you win 7, then maybe u played another ten and only win 3 of 10. But overall in those 30 games - u still average 50/50.

So I have developed a script where u take those probabilities and in this case ran 1400 simulation of this 8 game span. It says we should expect to win 5, but could be less than 5 if basically we lose to many of the 50/50 or lose one where we should have won. Likewise if wsu wins all their 50/50 games then they could go 6-2 or 7-2.

Another mistake is we assume 90% means 100%. It doesn't. Just ask ISUB about that. They had a 90% against SIU and lost. Bet they would really wish they had another chance - they might really regret that loss come post season selection. These probabilities basically assume linearity, but there are non-linearity they they can account for like bad refs, injuries, foul trouble, flu, etc.

Hope that helps understand the context of all it means. It is just like the SPC high risk days - they don't mean u are going to get hit by a tornado, just there is a higher risk than normal. It means wsu is at a higher risk of losing if they don't play focused.

I know it's dangerous to use my glass eye, but my other eye is tweaked out at the moment, but the peak of your distribution curve looks closer to 6 to me than it does 5. It looks like it's slightly above 5.5. I'm thinking if you were forced to round it, it comes out to 6, not 5? Again, this glass eye needs a little Windex so don't shoot me if I'm wrong.

[ShockerPrez]

No way we win the Valley at 13-5. We could win at 14-4, with a win at CU. I actually think that could happen. I have faith we can run the tables, though. Setting up a showdown in Omaha with both teams at 2 losses.

I expect tge Shox focus level to be at a very high level.

[SB Shock]

I know it's dangerous to use my glass eye, but my other eye is tweaked out at the moment, but the peak of your distribution curve looks closer to 6 to me than it does 5. It looks like it's slightly above 5.5. I'm thinking if you were forced to round it, it comes out to 6, not 5? Again, this glass eye needs a little Windex so don't shoot me if I'm wrong.

Artifact of excel drawing a smooth curve between bins. There are only #5 and 6 bins (no 5.5). What it does say there is ~60% chance of wsu winning 5 or 6 games.

[Ricardo del Rio]

When was the last time that a team won the Valley with 5 or more losses? Probably never or maybe once a long time ago.

So to win the Valley, the Shocks need to go 6-2 at a minimum in the remaining Valley games. I am not sure 4 losses will be good enough to win the Valley.

If CU ends with more than 3 losses, I will be most surprised.

The loss to IN State stings like hell.

I was wrong. Here is a listing of Valley champions with five losses or more.

1944 - Oklahoma State - 6
1971 - Drake, Louisville, St. Louis - 5
1993 - Illinois State - 5
1999 - Evansville - 5

Here is a link for history and stats of the Mo Valley: http://www.mvc-sports.com/mbasketball/mbbguide/

The information in the men's basketball guide is extensive, useful and interesting. A nice site to have in your hip pocket.

[SB Shock]

Artifact of excel drawing a smooth curve between bins.

Capture.JPG

[shocka khan]

Not trying to change the thread, but I have really appreciated seeing all the comments regarding the Shocks jacking up 3's against Indiana State (I just wasn't able to post b/c I forgot my password).

I think that Demetric can be very lazy sometimes. If it's tough to try to get the ball inside, he thinks it's just easier to jack up 3's. I don't know about Armstead, I haven't seen him cost us as much.

This team is a strong, big, physical team. We ought to be pounding it inside. HCGM should be trying to limit DW to about 5 threes per game, especially if the Shocks are b ehind, because I've noted that when they are (like with Alabama in PR last year), he seems to like to jack up a LOT of ill-advised 3's.

That said, I'm looking forward to seeing the Shocks win tomorrow on ESPN2.

[ShockerFever]

No I don't count them as anything. Those are probabilities. That means if u play 10 times at 50/50 u will expect to win 5 of those 10. But if u played another 10, maybe you win 7, then maybe u played another ten and only win 3 of 10. But overall in those 30 games - u still average 50/50.

So I have developed a script where u take those probabilities and in this case ran 1400 simulation of this 8 game span. It says we should expect to win 5, but could be less than 5 if basically we lose to many of the 50/50 or lose one where we should have won. Likewise if wsu wins all their 50/50 games then they could go 6-2 or 7-1.

Another mistake is we assume 90% means 100%. It doesn't. Just ask ISUB about that. They had a 90% against SIU and lost. Bet they would really wish they had another chance - they might really regret that loss come post season selection. These probabilities basically assume linearity, but there are non-linearity they they can not account for like bad refs, injuries, foul trouble, flu, or somebody throwing a hot dog at the ref.

Hope that helps understand the context of all it means. It is just like the SPC high risk days - they don't mean u are going to get hit by a tornado, just there is a higher risk than normal. It means wsu is at a higher risk of losing if they don't play focused.

Prediction probabilities should be taken with a grain of salt. What were those percentages of outcomes before we lost to Indiana State? It's one snapshot of prediction. After tomorrow's game, the percentages will change again and again, and so on. Ultimately, no one knows what's going to happen at any given game. Do you recall the percentage of our last game? Did it come to fruition?

I do appreciate the analytical presentation and everything. I just think plugging numbers into a computer and trying to predict results of one game, much less the rest of a season, to be suspect at best.

[rrshock]

Prediction probabilities should be taken with a grain of salt. What were those percentages of outcomes before we lost to Indiana State? It's one snapshot of prediction. After tomorrow's game, the percentages will change again and again, and so on. Ultimately, no one knows what's going to happen at any given game. Do you recall the percentage of our last game? Did it come to fruition?

I do appreciate the analytical presentation and everything. I just think plugging numbers into a computer and trying to predict results of one game, much less the rest of a season, to be suspect at best.

I agree with that. However I do like seeing how accurate computer predictions are, if nothing else because I like seeing how far some technologies have evolved. The one I would really like to see would have been the one at the beginning of the season to see how accurate (or in this case inaccurate) it was.

[Ricardo del Rio]

If the parameters do not change, then the probability a future event does not change.

[Rosewood]

Official (TM) (R) Meltdown Thread

Well, the Shox that smacked down UNI at home and got to 15th just had an 0fer week and we got court rushed.

I have no silver linings. Even HCGM is second guessing his strategy and uses his timeouts. Players are not executing on O and D. This makes 3 bad games out of 4 with 2 bad losses.

So lets make asses of ourselves and melt down!

[Ta town]

Home or Away for NIT?

This team is about to take a big slide. My question is will WSU even be a home team for the NIT?

Still have games at CU, ISUr, ISUb, SIU.

[PlaneShocker]

This team is about to take a big slide. My question is will WSU even be a home team for the NIT?

Still have games at CU, ISUr, ISUb, SIU.

Last years team is so much better and it's not close

[SHOXAAC]

If he doesn't use TO's early, which is the right thing, the end was much earlier.