Official Meltdown Thread

[another shocker]

this team has learned lessons without having to take too many losses (they shot embarrassing vs creighton too.. game tape insu must have relished). that has caught up to them. zone defense and take away the fast break, and wichita state can look pretty bad.

[capnkirk]

The effort level was poor at best.

Exactly! I have been watching shocker games for well over 25 years, and this is the first game I have ever wanted to walk out of before it was over. I actually quit clapping and just sat down in my chair. I had to ban myself from this sight for a little bit to cool off and remind myself that it is only a game and for entertainment purposes only. I also had to remember that WSU has won 19 wins already instead of the 1 loss(even though it was just plain ugly) we just suffered through.

I was tired of watching every offensive possession repeat itself(dribble and toss the ball around the perimeter for 27 seconds wondering what type of fantastic defense they were looking at and waiting for the crowd to start the shot clock count down from 8, then jack up an ill advised 3 or turn it over at the last second).

MOVING ON! >:(

[Ricardo del Rio]

WSU did shoot 31 shots inside the arc. They were 7 of 31 (22%).

The guards (MA, DW, FV, TC) where a combined 5 for 16 (31%) inside the arc

That means the bigs (Early, Orukpe, Wiggins Hall and White) only made 2 out 15 shots (13%)

This was either an aberration or this team is likely to go 0.500 the rest of the way.

Call me crazy, but I have had the thought that the last few games may not be a bed of roses.

[CBB_Fan]

Call me crazy, but I have had the thought that the last few games may not be a bed of roses.

Well, it certainly will be tougher than the first half of our season. We have yet to go to Creighton's house, Indiana State's house, UNI's house, or even Illinois State's house; we need to be very good to avoid giving up some losses on the road over rest of the conference season.

[ShockerFever]

This was either an aberration or this team is likely to go 0.500 the rest of the way.

That's way too much panic SB, even for a CBB Panic Thread.

Seriously, get a grip man.

[SB Shock]

That's way too much panic SB, even for a CBB Panic Thread.

Seriously, get a grip man.

It is just simple math. WSU has the following probabilities of winning over the next 8 conference games.

at UNI - 52%
at SIU - 87%
MSU - 95%
DU - 90%
at ISUR - 54%
at ISUB - 57%
EU - 85%
at CU - 24%

That yields the the following overall probabilities in ~ 1400 simulations. According to these it is likely WSU will go 5-3. If they are road warriors then they can finish 6-2 or 7-1, if not they will likely be 5-3 or 4-4.

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[molly jabali]

Ok, I just got a headache from that....

[GoShockers89]

That is very interesting. What metric is used that gives us a better chance of winning at ISUb than UNI?

[SB Shock]

That is very interesting. What metric is used that gives us a better chance of winning at ISUb than UNI?

It based off of Sagrin predictor. ISUR predictor is just slightly better than ISUB. If you used Sagrin ratings, then ISUB will have a slightly better chance than ISUR.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm

[tropicalshox]

Current probabilities on KenPom for WSU wins are

at UNI 55%
at SIU 86%
MSU 95%
Drake 92%
at Illinois State 59%
at Indiana State 53%
Evansville 87%
at Creighton 25%

[ShockerFever]

It is just simple math. WSU has the following probabilities of winning over the next 8 conference games.

at UNI - 52%
at SIU - 87%
MSU - 95%
DU - 90%
at ISUR - 54%
at ISUB - 57%
EU - 85%
at CU - 24%

That yields the the following overall probabilities in ~ 1400 simulations. According to these it is likely WSU will go 5-3. If they are road warriors then they can finish 6-2 or 7-1, if not they will likely be 5-3 or 4-4.

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Wait.. so you're counting the 50/50 games as losses? And this with a team that has a 90% road winning percentage over the last 2 or 3 years?

By my math, it looks like we're greater than 50% in 7 of the last 8 games. In other words, we statistically looked favored in 7 of the remaining 8 games, according to those percentages.

[ShockerFever]

Does anybody have a prediction table before the season began? How would that compare to where we're at now??

[tropicalshox]

A 6-2 finish in the Valley is projected by KenPom.

[rrshock]

A 6-2 finish in the Valley is projected by KenPom.

I think that is a reasonable prediction seeing as how we still go to ISUb and Creighton. SIU could be a troubling game too. Barry might not have the guys, but he sure can coach.

[ShockTalk]

A 6-2 finish in the Valley is projected by KenPom.

RPIForecast has a 5-3 finish for a 13-5 overall.

The Shock's 2nd half of the Valley schedule is tougher than the 1st half. IN St twice, Ill St, UNI, CU all on the road. Before the IN St game at home, the Shockers had exceeded my expectations. I had felt it would take time for this team to gel with all the new faces. Instead of losing some of those rough bumps, we won.

What happened in our 1st game of the second half of the Valley was what I expected to happen earlier, not later. I felt this team would be on the rise as the later part of the season went on. They may still. However, that home loss changed a lot of prespectives. If we can get thumped at home against IN St, it certainly makes road wins against Ill St, UNI, and CU less likely. Not that they won't happen, just less likely.