Predict Shox MVC record

[SubGod22]

I think as long as we split with Creighton (or beat them twice) and finish in the top 3, we would have a very good chance of being in with a 12-6 conference record. But if we go 0 for against Cu then I think we would be in a lot of trouble.

Not if we were able to sweep ISU and any other team that could maybe sneak into the Top 100. Not sure if that's possible as I haven't looked at the numbers.

[forevershockerfan]

Wouldn't be grand to rain on Creighton's "win the Valley parade," 2 Seasons in a row?

[Anthroshock]

Even with this conference record, they show an ultimate RPI rank of 23. That's 3 spots higher than 14-4 CU.

Never trust the RPI. MoST getting left out with a RPI of 21 was an eye opener. Just win.

[GoShockers89]

Wouldn't that depend who the losses were to? Say we lost at Creighton, at UNI, at ISU, MSUx2 and Bradley. That would be six losses that I'm sure would drag us down more than 30. I don't see us losing that many games though

RPI doesn't fluctuate based on who the specific losses are to- it's a formula. A 25-6 record will produce the exact same RPI regardless of who you beat and who you lose to over that schedule.

And guys, I love the optimism, but no, just no- a 12-6 record is not going to get a birth (nor should it). The MVC is filled with objectively terrible teams once you get past WSU, CU and ISUr. That kind of record hasn't gotten a look since 2007ish when the the league was enjoying a multi-year run as a top 7 conference. Those years featured 4-5 top 50 teams in the Valley. There won't be 5 in the top 100 this season. Every loss to someone not named Creighton or Illinois State will be a "bad" loss, and no wins except those against Creighton and Illinois State will be "good wins."

Our margin for error is pretty slim, I'd say 14-4 is the worst we can do where I'd feel alright about our odds. 13-5 would put us into longshot territory.

[ShockTalk]

Never trust the RPI. MoST getting left out with a RPI of 21 was an eye opener. Just win.

While I agree with your statement, there were other circumstances involved there.

What I found interesting was that they have us tied for second with Ill St yet 20+ spots ahead of them, behind CU, yet 3 spots in front of them.

Barring a complete collapse in the Valley tourney, a 30 or better RPI should get us to the Dance. Of course, I believe this will be our year to win in the Lou as the Shocks continue to improve throughout the season.

[shox1989]

Never trust the RPI. MoST getting left out with a RPI of 21 was an eye opener. Just win.

One of the main reasons stated at the time was that MoST went 0-4 against the top 2 teams. Ill. St also got left out a few years ago with a rpi in the low 30s and a second place conference finish, but they went 0-3 against Drake that year (Drake won the conference with a really good rpi).

That is why I think we need to beat Cu once to have a reasonable chance to get in with a 13-5 or 12-6 record. A good RPI doesn't seem to help you if you don't actually beat some real good teams (top 50 or better yet top 25 rpi teams).

[wufan]

The good news is that our team without Hall/Baker/Wessel is better than every other Valley team except Creighton and Ill St. The bad news is that we are not much better than Evansville, Drake, Ind St and UNI with that roster and all three of them will be a huge test early in the new year. CU, WSU and Ill St should finish with significantly better records than the rest of the Valley with the possibility of a 4th school sneaking in. Overall, I see a 12-6 record being better than the 4th place team, but probably not good enough to get into the Dance unless we win 2 in the Lou and the BB to finish 26-8. 25 wins is probably our cut off for an at-large opportunity.

I see us going 14-4. 2-2 against CU and Ill St with two losses to the mid-pack Valley.

[60Shock]

With the number our quality players injured and out for weeks to a month or more, before they are back in BB conditioning, it is seriously
doubtful that we can finish anywhere near as high as even #2 in the Valley. Afraid we are going to have to win in STL to make it into the
NCAA.

Sure, miracles can happen, but our present offense has got to start making some major improvements like in putting the ball through the
hoop.

[wufan]

With the number our quality players injured and out for weeks to a month or more, before they are back in BB conditioning, it is seriously
doubtful that we can finish anywhere near as high as even #2 in the Valley. Afraid we are going to have to win in STL to make it into the
NCAA.

Sure, miracles can happen, but our present offense has got to start making some major improvements like in putting the ball through the
hoop.

It's almost January. The timing is right for our talented new-comers to start playing like D-I ballers. Early, Wiggins and Lufile have all shown that they are as athletically gifted and skilled as anyone their size in the MVC. Supposing that the offense and defense starts clicking, I'm not concerned. They will still be inconsistent, but they are able to play with anyone. Lots of work to do, and CU and Ill St will be hard to beat, but we have the talent and staff to be special so long as the injury bug doesn't hit again.

[Shocker85]

With the number our quality players injured and out for weeks to a month or more, before they are back in BB conditioning, it is seriously
doubtful that we can finish anywhere near as high as even #2 in the Valley. Afraid we are going to have to win in STL to make it into the
NCAA.

Sure, miracles can happen, but our present offense has got to start making some major improvements like in putting the ball through the
hoop.

So true. And it is not like the remaining players will be immune to injury. Through the course of any season, various basketball iinjuries can sideline or hamper players for a game or two or three. The fact that the Shocks have 3 players out with serious injuries really compounds the challenge of consistently winning through the MVC grind.

If 2 of the 3: Hall, Baker, Wessel; can come back as projected and we don't have more than a single "game missing" injury per game from the remaining players, the Shocks can go 15-3. Experience multiple injuries among the currently healthy players vs. even middle of the pack Valley teams and the record starts to get ugly. Oh, and there's the ever-possible foul trouble as well.

Using the regular season MVC schedule to get some really good game experience all the way down the roster will allow the Shocks to finish the season strong and give a good showing in St. Louis. Regular season conference record is a beauty contest - the tournament matters most.

--'85.

[small tyme baller]

13-5 ...
14-4 ... or
15-3 ... depending on how our injury situation ends up and if injuries affect any other teams in the Valley

[pinstripers]

Hall says he is playin the 16th

[Dave Stalwart]

That's not that far off :)

And he's going to return to a team that is better than it was wen he left it.

[The Mad Hatter]

Hall says he is playin the 16th

If Carl is indeed back for the Illinois State and Creighton games, that makes a big difference.

[ShockerFever]

I'm glad Carl is optimistic and is hopeful about the 16th. Of course, who knows how much he'll be healed by then and how close to normal he can play with that injury. You definitely don't wanna go at it too early and risk reinjury.

No doubt about it having him by then would be huge. Just unsure how effective he'll be right away..