2024 Bracketology

[JVShocker]

Gonna update my bracketology. I think K-State and Cincy are both out of the equation officially now.

68 teams in the Tourney, 32 Auto Bids, 36 at large.
Parenthesis Represents the MOST # of teams / bids for that conference

(somebody tell me how we would be better in the Valley unless you run the table in the MVC Tourney?)
This year may break the NCAA. There are going to be a lot of lesser known teams with single digit losses that do not make the tourney than those teams want to think about. Gonna leave a lot of unhappy fans in those cities. Those teams are highlighted in RED because they are dangerously close to not playing in the NCAA Tourney. A few notable teams are also highlighted in red to watch for. My advice is the same: DO NOT LOSE YOUR CONFERENCE TOURNEY THIS YEAR.

(1) ASUN: E. Kentucky 17-14 Stetson 20-12 Lipscomb 20-11
(1) American East: Vermont 25-6 UMass 20-9 Bryant 19-12
(3) American Athletic: S. Florida 23-5 FAU 22-7 Memphis 22-8 UAB 18-11
(1) Atlantic Ten: Richmond 22-7 Loyola 21-8 Dayton 22-6
Dayton best wins are arguably vs. SMU and Cincinatti
(6) ACC: N. Carolina 24-6 Duke 24-6 Virginia 21-9 Clemson 21-9 Pitt 19-10 Wake Forest 18-11 Syracuse 20-11
(9) Big 12: Houston 26-3 Iowa St. 23-6 Baylor 22-8 Texas Tech 20-9 BYU 21-8 KU 21-8 TCU 19-10 Texas 19-11 OU 19-10
(5) Big East: UConn 26-3 Marquette 22-7 Creighton 22-8 Seton Hall 18-11 Villanova 17-12 Providence 19-11
(1) Big Sky: E. Washington 21-10 N. Colorado 19-12 Weber St. 20-11
(1) Big South: High Point 24-7 UNC Asheville 20-11
(7) Big Ten: Purdue 27-3 Illinois 22-8 Northwestern 20-9 Nebraska 21-9 Wisconsin 18-11 Iowa 18-12 Michigan St. 17-12 Ohio St. 18-12
I included Ohio State as a possible because they are playing their best basketball of the season under a mid-season interim replacement coach, and just beat #1 Purdue
(1) Big West: UC Irvine 22-8 UC SanDiego 20-10
(1) Coastal Athletic: Charleston 24-7 Drexel 20-11 UNC Wilmington 21-9
(1) Conference USA: Sam Houston 18-11 La Tech 21-8 W. Kentucky 19-10
(1) Horizon: Oakland 20-11 Youngstown St. 22-9 Green Bay 18-13 Wright St. 18-13
(1) Ivy: Princeton 23-3 Yale 20-8 Cornell 21-6
(1) Metro Atlantic: Quinnipiac 21-8 Fairfield 18-11 St Peters 16-11
(1) Mid American: Akron 21-9 Toledo 19-11 Ohio 18-12
(1) MEAC: Norfolk St. 20-10 Howard 15-15 N. Carolina Central 16-12
(1) MVC: Indiana St. 26-5 Drake 25-6 Bradley 21-10
Indiana State and Drake's best wins are arguably against each other.
(4) MWC: Utah St. 24-5 Boise St. 21-8 Nevada 24-6 San Diego St. 22-7 UNLV 18-10 New Mexico 21-8
(1) Northeast Conference: Central Conn. 19-10 Merrimack 19-11
(1) Ohio Valley: Little Rock 20-11 Morehead St. 23-8 UT Martin 21-10
(3) Pac 12: Arizona 23-6 Washington St. 23-7 Colorado 20-9 Oregon 19-10
(1) Patriot: Colgate 22-9 Boston U. 15-16
(6) SEC: Tenn 23-6 S. Carolina 24-5 Alabama 20-10 Kentucky 21-8 Auburn 22-7 Florida 21-9 Miss St. 19-10
(1) Southern: Samford 26-5 UNC Greensboro 21-10
(1) Southland: McNeese 27-3 Texas A&M CC 20-10
McNeese best wins are UAB and Michigan
(1) Southwestern Athletic: Grambling 16-13 Southern 17-12
(1) Summit: S. Dakota St. 19-12 N. Dakota 18-13
(1) Sun Belt: Appl. State 26-5 James Madison 28-3
Appl. State best win was early season against Auburn. James Madison best win was against Michigan State in both teams' season opener
(2) WCC: St. Marys 24-7 Gonzaga 24-6 SanFrancisco 22-9
(1) WAC: Grand Canyon 26-4 Tarleton St. 22-7
Grand Canyon best win was early in the season against San Diego State

(68) That's 68 bids. So where could this change?

[SubGod22]

I'm going to disagree on Dayton. They've consistently been in the top 25 in NET and have a positive Q1 and Q2 record with no bad losses to hold against them. I will say if anyone other than Dayton wins the A10, they're a bid thief. Dayton is secure in my view.

I think the only guaranteed at large from the AAC is FAU. SMU being 0-5 in Q1 and 2-3 in Q2 isn't going to help, plus they have 2 bad losses. Memphis might be on the bubble, but they have work to do. I think USF only having 1 Q1 win will be held against them. UAB has no chance for an at large.

It's amazing how bad the ACC is in Q1 games. But they will still probably get the 6 you put up there.

Big 12 gets much more unattractive after 6. Q1 records Tech 4-8, TCU 2-10, OU 3-9. But they're the darling of basketball so they probably get at least 9.

The Trees being 1-3 in Q1 doesn't help. Drake is 3-1. Both are probably outside looking in but both should probably be in (Won't happen). Any chance of 2 bids would need both making it to the Finals in STL.

I think your 4 for the MWC is low. I think they get at least that and potentially up to 6.

[Shocktoberfest]

I'm going to disagree on Dayton. They've consistently been in the top 25 in NET and have a positive Q1 and Q2 record with no bad losses to hold against them. I will say if anyone other than Dayton wins the A10, they're a bid thief. Dayton is secure in my view.

I think the only guaranteed at large from the AAC is FAU. SMU being 0-5 in Q1 and 2-3 in Q2 isn't going to help, plus they have 2 bad losses. Memphis might be on the bubble, but they have work to do. I think USF only having 1 Q1 win will be held against them. UAB has no chance for an at large.

It's amazing how bad the ACC is in Q1 games. But they will still probably get the 6 you put up there.

Big 12 gets much more unattractive after 6. Q1 records Tech 4-8, TCU 2-10, OU 3-9. But they're the darling of basketball so they probably get at least 9.

The Trees being 1-3 in Q1 doesn't help. Drake is 3-1. Both are probably outside looking in but both should probably be in (Won't happen). Any chance of 2 bids would need both making it to the Finals in STL.

I think your 4 for the MWC is low. I think they get at least that and potentially up to 6.

And SMU has one really bad loss.

[shocker43]

AAC is a one bid league unless someone other than FAU somehow pulls off the conference tournament win. Memphis has too many bad conference losses. I would be a bit nervous to be an FAU fan. Despite likely being in, Bracket Matrix has them as one of the last two byes. The Arizona win is going to carry their resume.

MVC is probably a one bid league. Could see Indiana State getting in. The media loves them.

I don't care about the MWC. I simply don't believe the hype.

[ShockerFever]

I don't care about the MWC. I simply don't believe the hype.

Why? They’re a league that actually went out and kicked ass in the non-con. They have quality NETs. Not sure what you would have against a non P5 league having success. We’re supposed to be of a similar profile except all of our teams crap the bed in the non-con and then crap all over each other.

They deserve their 4-6, more so than some garbage Big 12 team, riding the coattails from the top.

[SubGod22]

Why? They’re a league that actually went out and kicked ass in the non-con. They have quality NETs. Not sure what you would have against a non P5 league having success. We’re supposed to be of a similar profile except all of our teams crap the bed in the non-con and then crap all over each other.

They deserve their 4-6, more so than some garbage Big 12 team, riding the coattails from the top.

I think the ACC is the biggest fraud of the power conferences this year and they'll get more than they deserve and probably cost the MWC a team or two. Though I'm not sure the XII deserves more than 6 either.

[shocker43]

Why? They’re a league that actually went out and kicked ass in the non-con. They have quality NETs. Not sure what you would have against a non P5 league having success. We’re supposed to be of a similar profile except all of our teams crap the bed in the non-con and then crap all over each other.

They deserve their 4-6, more so than some garbage Big 12 team, riding the coattails from the top.

Two of the teams people are talking about locks for the tournament had KenPom NCSOS of 200+.

Utah State lost to Bradley, their best non-con win was Akron. UNLV did beat Creighton, but also lost to Southern and Richmond. Outside of that, their best win is against Akron. Nevada played two top 50 NET teams in non-con, they lost to Drake and beat TCU, beat a bad Washigton team, and every other team they played is in the 200+, including three teams 300+.

I would go through the rest, just don't have the time currently. Not impressed by any of these teams outside of SDSU.

[ShockerFever]

Two of the teams people are talking about locks for the tournament had KenPom NCSOS of 200+.

Utah State lost to Bradley, their best non-con win was Akron. UNLV did beat Creighton, but also lost to Southern and Richmond. Outside of that, their best win is against Akron. Nevada played two top 50 NET teams in non-con, they lost to Drake and beat TCU, beat a bad Washigton team, and every other team they played is in the 200+, including three teams 300+.

I would go through the rest, just don't have the time currently. Not impressed by any of these teams outside of SDSU.

Ok if you’re leaving 4-5 teams out of the MWC, what teams are you replacing them with?