Bracketology 2012

[SHOXAAC]

WSU is neck and neck with Notre Dame at the moment. Georgetown is probably sitting 1-1/2 to 2 seeds ahead of the Shox. I'm assuming WSU won't catch Georgetown and rooting for them to help knock Notre Dame down a bit.

Than you would have to say WSU is neck and neck with G-town as well. According to AP, G-town is #11, WSU is #15 & ND is #20. Two losses this week by G-town (they are up by 10 at half by the way) and 3 wins by WSU would almost assure WSU overtake GU.

[Rlh04d]

If WSU wins the MVC Tourney, they should be a lock for atleast a 4 seed. Kentucky, Syracuse, Michigan State, Kansas, Duke, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio State are all going to stay ahead of WSU regardless, so a 2 seed is out of the question. A 3 seed is possible, but only if teams like Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Georgetown, Florida State, Florida, Louisville, Indiana, and Notre Dame don't fill up those spots as 3 seeds first. Any of those teams (the Marquette grouping) could finish well and claim a spot ahead of WSU. Heck, even teams like Vanderbilt who are clearly behind the Shockers at the moment could jump ahead with a strong run in their conference tourneys. WSU doesn't get any chances to play Kentucky in St. Louis. Vandy does.

FSU is severely overrated, and is not deserving of a 4 seed. They have two huge wins, but I think they have just as many insanely bad losses.

I love FSU (obviously), but you can't argue "whole body of work" and then give them a 4 seed based off of nothing really outside of beating UNC and Duke. Losses to Princeton, Boston College, and Clemson are all terrible. They had a close loss to UConn that's essentially a wash, but obviously UConn wasn't the #4 team in the country people thought they were at the time. Even that Harvard loss ... I think FSU might be the only decent team Harvard has beat. The last win over Virginia Tech was pathetic. They were just blown out by Miami. As much as I'll be cheering for FSU in the tourney (second to WSU ...), they look like a 7-8 seed to me. Impressive when things click, but overall very inconsistent, with the ability to beat any good team on a good night ... and lose to any team, no matter how bad, on a bad night.

Florida might have deserved a four seed before, but after losing Yeguete, and proving how much losing him hurt their team by dropping an awful game to Georgia, they don't now. Even Louisville ... how many impressive wins do they have? Vanderbilt, Long Beach State, and Memphis? You can't even really make an argument that they deserve it because they play in the Big East, because they haven't beaten anyone in conference. Seton Hall and UConn are their best in-conference wins, and they're both borderline quality teams, as the 8/9 teams in the Big East and the last two in on the tourney, probably. Louisville has just been mopping up against the bottom teams in the Big East ... but yet lost to a 14-15 Providence team, and took overtime to beat a 11-17 Depaul team.

I don't doubt that any of those teams would jump ahead of WSU given a strong tournament showing. I do doubt that they deserve to, and I doubt that "body of work" wise their records are any better than WSU's, or their number of marquee wins. I doubt there are many more teams out there with wins over teams currently in the Top 25, outside of the 1, 2, and some 3 seeds.

I would put WSU as a 4 seed over any team that you have as a 4 seed right now, with the possible exception of Indiana, as they do have marquee wins.

[jocoshock]

FSU is severely overrated, and is not deserving of a 4 seed. They have two huge wins, but I think they have just as many insanely bad losses.

I love FSU (obviously), but you can't argue "whole body of work" and then give them a 4 seed based off of nothing really outside of beating UNC and Duke. Losses to Princeton, Boston College, and Clemson are all terrible. They had a close loss to UConn that's essentially a wash, but obviously UConn wasn't the #4 team in the country people thought they were at the time. Even that Harvard loss ... I think FSU might be the only decent team Harvard has beat. The last win over Virginia Tech was pathetic. They were just blown out by Miami. As much as I'll be cheering for FSU in the tourney (second to WSU ...), they look like a 7-8 seed to me. Impressive when things click, but overall very inconsistent, with the ability to beat any good team on a good night ... and lose to any team, no matter how bad, on a bad night.

Florida might have deserved a four seed before, but after losing Yeguete, and proving how much losing him hurt their team by dropping an awful game to Georgia, they don't now. Even Louisville ... how many impressive wins do they have? Vanderbilt, Long Beach State, and Memphis? You can't even really make an argument that they deserve it because they play in the Big East, because they haven't beaten anyone in conference. Seton Hall and UConn are their best in-conference wins, and they're both borderline quality teams, as the 8/9 teams in the Big East and the last two in on the tourney, probably. Louisville has just been mopping up against the bottom teams in the Big East ... but yet lost to a 14-15 Providence team, and took overtime to beat a 11-17 Depaul team.

I don't doubt that any of those teams would jump ahead of WSU given a strong tournament showing. I do doubt that they deserve to, and I doubt that "body of work" wise their records are any better than WSU's, or their number of marquee wins. I doubt there are many more teams out there with wins over teams currently in the Top 25, outside of the 1, 2, and some 3 seeds.

I would put WSU as a 4 seed over any team that you have as a 4 seed right now, with the possible exception of Indiana, as they do have marquee wins.

Saw FSU the other night versus Duke - was not impressed with either... with respect to their projected seeds...

[kcshocker11]

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/news?slug=mh-huguenin_ncaa_mens_tournament_projected_field_0227 12

Projected as the first 5 seed here

[Rlh04d]

Saw FSU the other night versus Duke - was not impressed with either... with respect to their projected seeds...

Nor was I.

FSU can win. And I wouldn't be surprised if they're a Sweet 16 team again this year. I also wouldn't be surprised if they're a one-and-done. They just have no consistency.

If Dulkys gets as hot as he was against UNC, he can single handedly beat any team out there. But that game was a massive aberration for a guy averaging 7 points a game. Snaer gets a lot of hype as the guy to go to at the last minute, and he's clutch with the last shot ... but he also went on a 1-11 streak over 16 minutes in the second half of that Duke game. You can't just be clutch with under a minute left in the game ... you have to actually score consistently throughout it. And Bernard James alternates between being a standout player and someone who has never played a game of basketball in his life within the same game. I don't know how many games I've seen where he stands around the first half, letting people score on him at will, not even putting any effort in for rebounds, scores 2 points, and then explodes in the second half. Every now and then that's okay and maybe even endearing ... every game and it's a telling indictment of the guy's personality, who as one of the oldest players in the NCAA and a senior should not be having the mental lapses that he has. I like the guy ... as a fellow Air Force guy, he's the one I want to cheer for the most. But as the oldest guy on the team and a senior he should be the team leader ... unfortunately the team does seem to take their lead from him, sleep-walking through any games or halves that they just don't feel like trying in.

I haven't seen or heard of Wichita State playing a game with the lack of mental focus FSU shows consistently since maybe the Alabama game through the first half of the Temple game in the Puerto Rico tournament, if then. It's not an every once in a while thing with them ... it's every third or fourth game where they just don't show up. FSU's team seems to just roll their eyes and go "We're playing BC tonight? Meh. Wake me up when Duke gets here." Wichita State takes the best game every single team they play has to throw at them and they still don't take their opponents for granted, with the possible exception of that 3OT Drake game. And I'm glad they lost that game. WSU responded to that loss by going on a rampage through the ranks for weeks afterward. FSU responded to their BC lost by playing a solid game the next time out, and then going right back to coasting.

Duke is probably the weakest potential one seed out there right now. They have all the talent, but they're still lacking something that keeps them from putting it together. They have an over-reliance on the three, don't really have anyone that can get inside consistently, and they've limped through the entire ACC season. They almost lost their third home game of the season against a mediocre Virginia Tech team the other night, and that just a few nights after barely escaping against an average NC State team at home. They could win the tourney if they get on a hot streak ... but they could lose in the first or second round just as easily.

[The Mad Hatter]

I really dislike that RPI gets talked about so much when it is such a flawed ranking tool compared to the other statistical models out there. Thankfully, it looks like more sophisticated models are getting more play of late, including ESPN introducing their own BPI. Just to show how the polls and RPI compare to some of the major ranking systems, see the following graph:



Just to give some reference on where WSU stacks up on some of the major rankings listed:

Bayesian LMRC: 5
Ken Pomeroy: 8
Massey Consensus (averages 40 rankings): 10
Sagarin: overall - 10 predictor - 9
ESPN's BPI: 9

If the committee decides to use these kinds of rankings heavily, and I have seen many in the media urging committee members to do so, WSU will benefit in seeding. Traditionally, the committee uses a blend of these kind of rankings along with the polls and RPI. Time will tell exactly what the committee values more.

[_kai_]

My head hurts now TMH. Thanks.

[SHOXAAC]

...but who's on first???

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Full update just posted on my blog. I'll have time later to comment.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Here's a list of top 50 wins. The teams are in the order that I currently have them ranked, starting with my #1 3-seed Georgetown down to WSU (#2 5-seed). Just something to think about. I'll expand more later.

Top 50 wins:
Georgetown - 8
Baylor - 7
Marquette - 6
Michigan - 9
Wisconsin - 6
Louisville - 6
Indiana - 6
Florida - 3
Florida State - 4
WSU - 2

I'll have to reconsider the Florida/Florida State/WSU order, but its hard to put WSU ahead of any of those other teams at the moment. Give it another week and things could change, but right now, WSU is below those teams.

[BostonWu]

From what I'm reading FSU sounds similar to KSU.

[pogo]

...but who's on first???

No, Who's on secound.

[ShockTalk]

Here's a list of top 50 wins. The teams are in the order that I currently have them ranked, starting with my #1 3-seed Georgetown down to WSU (#2 5-seed). Just something to think about. I'll expand more later.

Top 50 wins:
Georgetown - 8
Baylor - 7
Marquette - 6
Michigan - 9
Wisconsin - 6
Louisville - 6
Indiana - 6
Florida - 3
Florida State - 4
WSU - 2

I'll have to reconsider the Florida/Florida State/WSU order, but its hard to put WSU ahead of any of those other teams at the moment. Give it another week and things could change, but right now, WSU is below those teams.

I can buy into your order with all but FSU. While FSU has a couple of big wins, they haven't taken care of business elsewhere. In the top 1-25/26-50, FSU is 2-3/2-3 and WSU is 2-2/0-1 so both teams have the same winning %. On the other hand, in the 51-100/101-200/201+, FSU is 5-1/9-2/3-1 and WSU 5-0/13-1/5-0. I'd give the edge to consistency, WSU.

[shox1989]

Here's a list of top 50 wins. The teams are in the order that I currently have them ranked, starting with my #1 3-seed Georgetown down to WSU (#2 5-seed). Just something to think about. I'll expand more later.

Top 50 wins:
Georgetown - 8
Baylor - 7
Marquette - 6
Michigan - 9
Wisconsin - 6
Louisville - 6
Indiana - 6
Florida - 3
Florida State - 4
WSU - 2

I'll have to reconsider the Florida/Florida State/WSU order, but its hard to put WSU ahead of any of those other teams at the moment. Give it another week and things could change, but right now, WSU is below those teams.

Jamar- That is just more BCS bias- focusing so much on top 50 wins. BCS teams have so much more opportunity to get top 50 wins it will always favor them. If that is the focus then the PAC 12 ought to be a one bid conference, but it changes when it comes to them.

Years ago it seemed like seeding was very much tied to the rpi, if they did that we would be a 3 seed right now. Even if they balanced the rpi with other computer ratings like ken.pom we would also be a 3 seed. You look at the Nitty Gritty sheet and things like road wins and last 10 games are also factors- both of which heavily favor WSU. In fact top 50 wins is the weakest part of our resume and that is the one that bracketologists seem to favor this year.

I will also add that UNI really screwed us. They were a top 50 win both times we played them but then they went off and lost a couple of games and cost us 2 top 50 wins. 4 top 50 wins right now would look a lot better than 2.

[ShockTalk]

Jamar- That is just more BCS bias- focusing so much on top 50 wins. BCS teams have so much more opportunity to get top 50 wins it will always favor them. If that is the focus then the PAC 12 ought to be a one bid conference, but it changes when it comes to them.

Years ago it seemed like seeding was very much tied to the rpi, if they did that we would be a 3 seed right now. Even if they balanced the rpi with other computer ratings like ken.pom we would also be a 3 seed. You look at the Nitty Gritty sheet and things like road wins and last 10 games are also factors- both of which heavily favor WSU. In fact top 50 wins is the weakest part of our resume and that is the one that bracketologists seem to favor this year.

I will also add that UNI really screwed us. They were a top 50 win both times we played them but then they went off and lost a couple of games and cost us 2 top 50 wins. 4 top 50 wins right now would look a lot better than 2.

No doubt that MSU tanking at the end has hurt WSU and UNI standing as well as UNI's inconsistency since starting the season 10-1 and then going 9-11 since. 2 more wins in both the top 50 and 100 would have looked extra good right now.