Bracketology 2012

[shoxlax]

Interesting, would you have Miami in as of today, Jamar?

[shock-it-to-me]

The RPI is not generally a very good way to seed the NCAA field. It gives a "very rough" initial assessment, but that's about it. For example, Colorado State (16-10 overall, 6-6 in the Mountain West) has a better RPI than 25-1 Murray State. Does anyone on this board think Colorado State is better than Murray State? How about UConn being 11 spots higher in the RPI than Notre Dame? That's the same UConn team that has only won 5 games in the calendar year 2012! (Note: Notre Dame has won 11 games in that same time period and plays in the same conference) Who would YOU seed higher?

AP Poll? It can be downright silly at times. I gave Murray State props earlier in this thread, but I have to admit that it was a bit silly seeing them reach #7 in the country a couple weeks ago. If you eliminated their wins against teams not even sniffing the NIT, their new record at the time would have been 4-0 without any eye popping wins. Winning at Memphis was nice, and Murray State should have been ranked, but #7 was a bit silly and makes me feel that the polls don't really bring much to the table for analysis when it comes to seeding the field of 68.

So you ask what DO I use? Well, the RPI and AP polls CAN atleast give a starting point, but quite a few adjustments need to be made from there. For example, here's one major thing I look at... Who were a team's easiest 5-10 opponents on the schedule? Team A might have won 10 games against teams ranked 150-200. Team B might have won 10 games against teams 250-300. Because of this, team A will likely have a much better RPI despite doing nothing all that much more impressive than team B. Good teams beat anyone outside the top 150 nearly every time, but the RPI seems to think that beating #198 is significantly better than beating #298. In reality, there isn't much difference. This is the reason you see everyone on this board cringe when Chicago State comes to town. Playing bad teams artificially drops your RPI and there is nothing you can do (on the court) about it.

This year, WSU did an excellent job scheduling and mostly avoided playing cupcakes. However, were Cal State Fullerton and Charleston Southern actually threats to beat WSU in Wichita? Probably not, but playing them (RPIs 150-200 range) instead of a bunch of RPI 250+ teams did wonders for WSU's RPI. Swapping those 2 wins with wins over teams in the 300+ range would have probably cost WSU about 8-10 spots in the RPI right now. My point is that WSU's RPI is probably overrated due to the type of schedule they played. You can say that a team that was stupid enough to schedule a bunch of 300+ teams deserves to be penalized, but if you are honest, you know that the RPI has a real problem with this part of its formula. If WSU has a 98% chance of beating a team with an RPI of 170 and a 99% chance of beating a team with an RPI of 270, that 1% difference is really small considering how much difference it makes in the RPI formula.

I could go on and on, but I'll stop for now. Maybe if I have time tomorrow I'll make a post breaking down WSU's resume and listing some more specific reasons why I ranked them where I did.

Cool. Thanks for that insightful response. That's why I've always said you do as good a job or better than anyone else out there in the 'bracketology world'. Let me ask you one more question, if Indiana and WSU were playing a neutral site game tomorrow, who would you put your money on? I guess what I'm asking is, do you go only by the numbers? I'm sure you (as have I) have watched nearly all WSU games and I've caught at least 10-12 halves of Indiana games this year. Of course I'm biased, but I think we are clearly the better team. Not because of who we've beaten and lost to and who they've beaten and lost to, but strictly as a team. We have way more offensive weapons and I think we'd handle them by 10-15 points.

[ABC]

Jamar, what do you use to determine what teams are 150+ etc.?

[ShockerFever]

I think Jamar has more bias against WSU sometimes than the talking heads. Wouldn't surprise me to see us a 4 seed in Lunardi's bracket tomorrow, although Lunardi is a guy that really doesn't have a lot of love for us.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Interesting, would you have Miami in as of today, Jamar?

Probably so. I haven't gotten a chance to look at all of Sunday's results, but the win over Florida State probably pushes Miami just inside the bubble. I'll post a link here when I get my next update on my blog.

[fansince80s]

We will be a 4/5 seed...If we win the MVC tourney than a 3 seed. Bank it!

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Cool. Thanks for that insightful response. That's why I've always said you do as good a job or better than anyone else out there in the 'bracketology world'. Let me ask you one more question, if Indiana and WSU were playing a neutral site game tomorrow, who would you put your money on? I guess what I'm asking is, do you go only by the numbers? I'm sure you (as have I) have watched nearly all WSU games and I've caught at least 10-12 halves of Indiana games this year. Of course I'm biased, but I think we are clearly the better team. Not because of who we've beaten and lost to and who they've beaten and lost to, but strictly as a team. We have way more offensive weapons and I think we'd handle them by 10-15 points.

Body of work, I give Indiana the slight edge over WSU for NCAA seeding. To answer your question about right now on a neutral site, I'd say WSU by 5 because WSU is hot and Indiana is lukewarm.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I don't actually know of any sites that break things down into a 150+ group specifically... that was meant to just be an example. However, there are plenty of sites (such as RPIforecast.com) that break things down quite nicely by RPI. 1-25, 26-50, 51-100, 101-200 & 200+

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

I think Jamar has more bias against WSU sometimes than the talking heads. Wouldn't surprise me to see us a 4 seed in Lunardi's bracket tomorrow, although Lunardi is a guy that really doesn't have a lot of love for us.

I'll still have WSU as a #5 seed today when I update, but I can guarantee you I'll have WSU as a #4 or better if they win the whole thing in St. Louis.

[shock-it-to-me]

Body of work, I give Indiana the slight edge over WSU for NCAA seeding. To answer your question about right now on a neutral site, I'd say WSU by 5 because WSU is hot and Indiana is lukewarm.

I suppose the "who would win" arguement isn't an appropriate method for seeding evaluation. Like you said, body of work is really all you can go by. I would agree that Indiana's two mega wins gives them the edge. Do you think, if WSU wins the Valley Tourney they can still surpass a few of the teams on your 3 and 4 line if those teams make early confernece tourney exits?

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

If WSU wins the MVC Tourney, they should be a lock for atleast a 4 seed. Kentucky, Syracuse, Michigan State, Kansas, Duke, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio State are all going to stay ahead of WSU regardless, so a 2 seed is out of the question. A 3 seed is possible, but only if teams like Marquette, Baylor, Michigan, Georgetown, Florida State, Florida, Louisville, Indiana, and Notre Dame don't fill up those spots as 3 seeds first. Any of those teams (the Marquette grouping) could finish well and claim a spot ahead of WSU. Heck, even teams like Vanderbilt who are clearly behind the Shockers at the moment could jump ahead with a strong run in their conference tourneys. WSU doesn't get any chances to play Kentucky in St. Louis. Vandy does.

[fansince80s]

Shox in a tough spot...we need to avoid the 4/5 slot...need a 3 or a 6.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[WSUwatcher]

Fear not, 80s; Lunardi STILL isn't on the selection committee. Anytime between now and two weeks from yesterday that you see a bracket with WSU and Kentucky in the same regional, just keep telling yourself: "It's only a movie. It's only a movie..."

[SubGod22]

I don't get why people are afraid of being a 4/5. Grow a pair and get with the program. This team can play with any team in the nation. Stop being scared of success and hop aboard. We should fear no one!

[GoShockers89]

I don't get why people are afraid of being a 4/5. Grow a pair and get with the program. This team can play with any team in the nation. Stop being scared of success and hop aboard. We should fear no one!

Seriously. Being terrified of 1 seeds (half of which are indistinguishable from the 2 seeds everyone seems to be licking their chops to face). A thread about tanking it in St. Louis to avoid injuries. Good Lord people.