Wichita State vs. SMU Pregame Discussion 2-14-21

[Stickboy46]

So will SMU have to play 2 here when they come? Only seems right at this point.

We do not want that. We need to play them at their place. They are a Q1 game there and a Q2 game here. @SMU is one of our 2 Q1 opportunities left (along with home vs Houston). I feel more confident in beat SMU at their place than beating Houston here.

[SkoShox]

Not sure why we are arguing about our Kenpom rating... Last time I looked we were #10 ?!? #10 in Luck rating that is.


Interesting explanation from Ken on 'Luck Rating': "The easiest one to understand is Luck, which is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record using the correlated Gaussian method. The luck factor has nothing to do with the rating calculation, but a team that is very lucky (positive numbers) will tend to be rated lower by my system than their record would suggest."

[David Rahm]

I can appreciate that it is difficult to analyze 300 plus teams nationwide, and that KenPom does an excellent job of determining many factors.
However, at the end of the day, it is about wins and losses.
If I recall, we are playing the 26th most difficult schedule in the country this year (or were supposed to before so many cancellations).

If that is true, and we have won 75% of these games, thern there is NO WAY Drake, Loyola, Wright State, and all the "power conference" teams with LOSING RECORDS
should be picked ahead of us for the toruney.

Yeah, we don't rebound well, but we have other good metrics.
Isn't this true of all the teams across the country? None are good at everything except perhaps Gonzaga and Baylor.
Kentucky can't shoot. KU is having a bad year, surely they have some bad metrics too. But both are still ranked considerably ahead of us.

At the end of the day, selection should be based on RESULTS, not METRICS.

That is all I am saying. We may "analyze" out at the 80th best team, but our results indicate a much higher ranking.
Maybe we have been lucky, but that evens out over the year. We weren't lucky when Cade Cunningham dropped a closely guarded 3 to win the OSU game at the last second.
Ife we really are not that good, we will prove so over the remaining schedule against the difficult teams.

Remember, we led Houston on their conrt in the second half, until they blitzed us. They have basically massacred everyone else (except, curiously, ECU).
Except for Memphis, we have been in every game.

I think we were underestimated at the beginning of the year because HCGM left and all the turnover. And that mantra has "stuck" to us.

Obviously, Drake plays nobody, Loyola plays nobody, if that were the metric, then UCF, who beat Auburn and Flrorida State would be ranked
way up there even with their losing record.

We have big games coming up with Houston and SMU. Cincinnati is rebouding to 4-4, don't count them out.
This is a good conferenece, far better than the Mo Valley and whatever conference some of these other teams rated above us are in.
But we just never seen to get the respect we deserve.

[shoxlax]

The AAC is getting worked by the P5 Conferences, in multiple ways.

[AG1219]

I can appreciate that it is difficult to analyze 300 plus teams nationwide, and that KenPom does an excellent job of determining many factors.
However, at the end of the day, it is about wins and losses.
If I recall, we are playing the 26th most difficult schedule in the country this year (or were supposed to before so many cancellations).

If that is true, and we have won 75% of these games, thern there is NO WAY Drake, Loyola, Wright State, and all the "power conference" teams with LOSING RECORDS
should be picked ahead of us for the toruney.

Yeah, we don't rebound well, but we have other good metrics.
Isn't this true of all the teams across the country? None are good at everything except perhaps Gonzaga and Baylor.
Kentucky can't shoot. KU is having a bad year, surely they have some bad metrics too. But both are still ranked considerably ahead of us.

At the end of the day, selection should be based on RESULTS, not METRICS.

That is all I am saying. We may "analyze" out at the 80th best team, but our results indicate a much higher ranking.
Maybe we have been lucky, but that evens out over the year. We weren't lucky when Cade Cunningham dropped a closely guarded 3 to win the OSU game at the last second.
Ife we really are not that good, we will prove so over the remaining schedule against the difficult teams.

Remember, we led Houston on their conrt in the second half, until they blitzed us. They have basically massacred everyone else (except, curiously, ECU).
Except for Memphis, we have been in every game.

I think we were underestimated at the beginning of the year because HCGM left and all the turnover. And that mantra has "stuck" to us.

Obviously, Drake plays nobody, Loyola plays nobody, if that were the metric, then UCF, who beat Auburn and Flrorida State would be ranked
way up there even with their losing record.

We have big games coming up with Houston and SMU. Cincinnati is rebouding to 4-4, don't count them out.
This is a good conferenece, far better than the Mo Valley and whatever conference some of these other teams rated above us are in.
But we just never seen to get the respect we deserve.

My feeling is you are confusing Kenpom rankings with Tournament bids. Kenpom again is statistics driven based on your actual performance to give an idea how one team will play against another team given their average performance.

You say we have good and bad metrics, and others do as well. Yes, and those are used to compare the teams. The best combination of metrics is Number 1, then the next best Number 2 and so on. We rank 81st today. That can and will move based on results of not only us, but others as the season progresses.

You say we lost Marshall or transfers or image or what have you and that has "stuck" to us. That would be the case in voting for Top 25 or any other human evaluation. Not Kenpom. These are statistics based on this year's games and how they stack up against statistics of other teams.

You say selection should be on Results and not Metrics. You are correct, but since everybody can't play everybody, some metrics have to come into play. There have been teams in the 70's on Kenpom that have received at large bids and conversely there have been teams in the 30's that have gone to the NIT. 2019 had Temple make it at 69 out of the disrespected AAC, and Clemson at 36 go to NIT out of the Power 5.

When stickboy above says its better to play at SMU so we can get another chance at a Q1 victory he is 100% correct. It is something the committee looks at very closely. Did you have good wins.

I know it's frustrating to see us with 12-4 record and see us at 81st, but like a handicap in golf that's where the numbers would have us right now stacked against other teams. If you feel that is too low, go place some money on the Shocks there in Vegas. The lines closely resemble the Kenpom projected scores. I will warn you, even with our rankings seeming "unfair" for past month. We are 0-5 against the spread in our last 5 games.

Let's go Shocks! Here's to hoping we make the adjustments needed to get some big wins down the stretch and sneak into the tourney. We have the talent, let's execute and get it done!

*Edit, had the wrong order of games for Vegas spread. Too many cancelations have messed with my memory of schedule.*

[molly jabali]

And then you have shills like Lunardi saying he’s going with “ history” with KU... btw nice raccoon on your head, Joe

[Aargh]

The problem I see with KenPom is that there's no way to compare metrics accurately with the talent disparity in schedules. I'm going to use Drake as an example, but you could substitute any mid-major having a good season with a weak schedule.

A "decent" mid major is typically playing against slower and less athletic players than the Shox are facing. Drake can rack up some great metrics against those teams. The teams Drake plays against are also playing against slower and less athletic opponents, so those teams' metrics are based off of a different level of competition than the Shox are facing.

For example, take two really bad teams playing each other and other similar teams all season. Neither the offenses nor the defenses are as good as better teams, but when they play each other those offset and they end up "looking" like they are average teams when they aren't. Then Drake plays them and destroys them both offensively and defensively. Now Drake looks like a vastly superior team because they're playing a weaker schedule.

Unless KenPom is adjusting metrics based on SoS, his metrics can be misleading. If he is basing metrics using SoS, then there's a huge human factor. The best that can be done is to guess and plug that into the algorithm to see how it works. There will always be outliers

If anybody out here reall7y thinks Loyola or Drake could consistently beat the Shox, then I'd expect somebody to be mentioning Porter Moser as a candidate in the Coaching Search thread. I haven't seen that.

[pinstripers]

I think Drake oughta make the dance, whether they are capable of beating us or not

[Stickboy46]

I think Drake oughta make the dance, whether they are capable of beating us or not

Only if we get in too. Not if they take a spot from us. We not only have better wins, but "better" losses.

[AG1219]

Aargh, Kenpom does take into account the other teams rankings. The easiest way to explain this would be towards the middle of the season on, you can pretty much tell if you will rise in Kenpom standings or fall based on the spread of the game and the result.

For example, WSU plays against Houston. Houston favored by 6. For WSU to beat Houston or lose by less than 6, they will have to statistically play better than their seasonal average which was used to determine the line or spread. Whether that is offensive efficiency or defensively, they will need to outperform their current metric while conversely Houston will have underperformed. Now the later in the season we go each game will have less impact.

Now if WSU were to play Temple and favored at home by 8 and win by 3 with a shot in the air to tie at the buzzer, you can expect WSU played below their normal seasonal metrics. They still won, but they could see a drop in metrics rating. Maybe they shot worse, maybe they gave up a higher percentage of field goals to Temple, or allowed them to shoot it 10 times more because we couldn't secure a defensive rebound. Regardless we performed worse than expected against a lesser opponent.

For Drake and Loyola playing in the MVC, they will have the difficulties we had from 2014-2017. Not only will they need to beat Evansville and Illinois State, they will need to outperform what is expected of them based on seasonal averages to date. If Loyola is playing UNI and favored by 13 and they win by 5. They will come down a bit.

Kenpom does not equal selection to the Tournament. And if you want to argue that Loyola doesn't deserve to be that high, thats fine. But just remember we were Loyola in 2017, murdering every team in the MVC with a slipup at Illinois State. We were ranked 11th in Kenpom going into the MVC final at 29-4. We won and still got a 10 seed. Still to this day I wonder if we would have gotten a bid had we lost. It would have been damn close. Our best win was in OKC vs #65 OU and possibly a win at Colorado State #86.

But we get in the tournament and beat #39 Dayton and damn near beat #4 kenpom Kentucky. Why? Because statistically speaking we were better than Dayton and pretty close to Kentucky as well.

[ShockTalk]

We need to stop this "Drake Talk" and choose another team to gripe about getting in in place of the Shox. They've lost 2 of the last 3 games by a combined 44 points, the first loss being Valpo by 17. They got ran by 30 points IN THE 2ND HALF by Loyola. They've also lost their top scorer for the season. They are most likely Hiss-toe-ree.

[Stickboy46]

We need to stop this "Drake Talk" and choose another team to gripe about getting in in place of the Shox. They've lost 2 of the last 3 games by a combined 44 points, the first loss being Valpo by 17. They got ran by 30 points IN THE 2ND HALF by Loyola. They've also lost their top scorer for the season. They are most likely Hiss-toe-ree.

Crazy Lunardi still has them in ... After the loyola beat down today.