What can we expect for 2020-2021 MBB season

[Aargh]

I hate to put a damper on things, but I give it 50-50 (at BEST) that students will be allowed on campus for fall semester, and if there are no students allowed on campus, there will NO sports.

Not sports without fans in attendance, ZERO sports at all. And that will be fall and winter. At least.

Now back to your regularly scheduled discussion.

I remember when Doc predicted a WSU F4 and the Shox got to the F4. The post above probably has that kind of accuracy and foresight.

The latter part of August is only 4 months away. If the economy is running at any marginal level by then, employers will want to be testing employees (who don't have a positive antibody test) regularly. That's A LOT of tests to run. I would expect priority for testing would go to businesses ahead of college students.

Hard choices coming up.

[pie n eye]

We can’t create enough tests to go around by August?

Are we or are we not the ****ing United States of America?

[Aargh]

We can’t create enough tests to go around by August?

Are we or are we not the ****ing United States of America?

We've outsourced all the manufacturing of the components that are needed to create the tests. EVERYTHING is imported - mostly from China. We're probably not high on China's priority list right now. The ramp up to produce test components here would take some time, but that's probably a route we HAVE to take.

The places showing the best results now (S. Korea, Taiwan, Iceland, Germany, New Zealand) have tested in the range of 10% of the population. They've done that by random testing and testing of those who have symptoms or contacts with symptoms. It seems that testing around 10% of the population establishes areas where quarantines are needed. The random testing searches for positive test results where there are no symptoms. 10% of the population in the USA is 32.7 million tests.

Once people go back to work, both employers and employees will want ongoing testing to ensure a clean workforce. Gettin back to pre-virus employment levels would be around 160,000,000 in the workplace.

Early trials of the antibody test are showing preliminary estimates of 4% of the population with antibodies. That would indicate about 13 million people in the USA who are thought to have immunity, and that number will increase significantly, but there are likely to be 70 or 80 million people who will want to be tested every week or two.

The countries that did heavy testing placed orders for tests and supplies when it was first identified as a novel coronavirus. Once those orders were filled, stockpiles and supply lines for components of testing kits were depleted. Think of it like you're trying to build a house and you discover that there's a copper shortage. You might be able to find a substitute for plumbing, but if nobody can make electrical wire, you're not going to get the house built.

[pie n eye]

If it was about storm like hell and my family was in danger and I was the richest most powerful person in the neighborhood you better believe I’m gonna find a way to build that house as quickly as possible.

[Atxshoxfan]

I don't know how it is on Wichita, but so far local govt responses in some areas of Texas are way out of bounds. If this continues I honestly believe suicides will have an upward swing, old folks without the virus will give up on life and married couples will start killing each other and their children. The death rate of all of this will surpass the Corona virus death rate.
this crap sucks, US citizens will not stand for this to continue more than 4-8 weeks.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

I don't know how it is on Wichita, but so far local govt responses in some areas of Texas are way out of bounds. If this continues I honestly believe suicides will have an upward swing, old folks without the virus will give up on life and married couples will start killing each other and their children. The death rate of all of this will surpass the Corona virus death rate.
this crap sucks, US citizens will not stand for this to continue more than 4-8 weeks.

Nor should we stand for it.

[Aargh]

Nor should we stand for it.

What do you propose we do?

[Atxshoxfan]

#1- stop buying China good (apple, are you listening?), Unless life saving. #2- start living life again the way we're supposed to.
numbers just aren't there to support these restrictions.
Now I will put on my little mask and gloves and kiss out local judges ass so not to get fined

[Aargh]

#1- stop buying China good (apple, are you listening?), Unless life saving. #2- start living life again the way we're supposed to.
numbers just aren't there to support these restrictions.
Now I will put on my little mask and gloves and kiss out local judges ass so not to get fined

#1 - It is impossible to stop buying goods from China. Several decades ago as much manufacturing as possible was moved there to increase profit margins. Can't undo that by just deciding to stop buying goods from China. Want to guess where apparel items with "Trump" branding are made? New Balance shoes are made in the USA, but I don't see them sponsoring any basketball programs.

#2 - There is a cluster in a KC nursing home. 116 residents are infected - 7 have died. The outbreak traces back to 1 employee. Instead of maintaining social distance and wearing a mask to kiss some judge's ass, do that to try to have a basketball season this fall. You'll feel a lot better about practicing some precautions that way.

Take a moment to let that second point sink in. One employee, who probably had symptoms, but either didn't or couldn't get tested went to work. As a result, 7 people died and another 116 are infected. What numbers do you need in order to support restrictions on activities?

[B1ShockFan]

#1 - It is impossible to stop buying goods from China. Several decades ago as much manufacturing as possible was moved there to increase profit margins. Can't undo that by just deciding to stop buying goods from China. Want to guess where apparel items with "Trump" branding are made? New Balance shoes are made in the USA, but I don't see them sponsoring any basketball programs.

#2 - There is a cluster in a KC nursing home. 116 residents are infected - 7 have died. The outbreak traces back to 1 employee. Instead of maintaining social distance and wearing a mask to kiss some judge's ass, do that to try to have a basketball season this fall. You'll feel a lot better about practicing some precautions that way.

Take a moment to let that second point sink in. One employee, who probably had symptoms, but either didn't or couldn't get tested went to work. As a result, 7 people died and another 116 are infected. What numbers do you need in order to support restrictions on activities?

You hit it - some people just do not get it, this virus is serious it's a KILLER.

[wsushox1]

I posed this question to several of my friends recently:

If you're a college administrator, and in mid-September 35 students in a dorm floor come down with COVID-19 what do you do?

If the answer is, send everyone home and move to online classes, then is it even worth starting schools this fall in person?

The best answer is, Test, Trace, Isolate, but I'm still not confident we will have the resources as a country to do that effectively.

[wsushox1]

If it was about storm like hell and my family was in danger and I was the richest most powerful person in the neighborhood you better believe I’m gonna find a way to build that house as quickly as possible.

And that's the problem. With the federal government essentially pushing responsibilities for ramping up testing to the states, the states that will be able to do that best are the higher population states. States like Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, etc. can't expect to compete in the free market for testing and health supplies with larger states.

To bring it back to sports, it's possible the Colleges and Universities with the largest cash positions will be able to buy tests for their students at a price that smaller institutions can't possibly afford. For example a Duke being able to open this fall but a UNC-Greensboro unable to. What does that then look like for collegiate athletics?

Times of crisis further exacerbate inequality (business size, income/wealth transfer, race, etc) and it will certainly be the case with colleges and universities and the "haves" and "have nots".

[Aargh]

If it was about storm like hell and my family was in danger and I was the richest most powerful person in the neighborhood you better believe I’m gonna find a way to build that house as quickly as possible.

While the United States is the most powerful person in the neighborhood, the state of Kansas is not. When the national response is to leave everything up to the governors, then it is the states that are attempting to compete in the marketplace. The states are actually competing with "the most powerful person in the neighborhood" for supplies and equipment.

Even if you are the most powerful person in the neighborhood, if there's no copper wire, then copper wire can't be made any faster than copper can be mined and everybody else in the neighborhood is waiting on the same mining operation.

[pie n eye]

While the United States is the most powerful person in the neighborhood, the state of Kansas is not. When the national response is to leave everything up to the governors, then it is the states that are attempting to compete in the marketplace. The states are actually competing with "the most powerful person in the neighborhood" for supplies and equipment.

Even if you are the most powerful person in the neighborhood, if there's no copper wire, then copper wire can't be made any faster than copper can be mined and everybody else in the neighborhood is waiting on the same mining operation.

From the research I’ve done the shortage of tests is not due to a lack of natural resources. I would be interested to learn more if that is the case.

The problem seems to be more a lack of preparation, aka we didn’t start ramping up when we should have and the virus spread faster than our rate of production. Not to mention a lack of coordination (some areas have excess, others shortage).

My point is that now that this has our full attention I find it hard to believe that we, as the United States of America, are incapable of focusing our vast knowledge, resources, and willpower to create the necessary testing stockpile by August. Maybe I’m wrong and it’s just not possible.

As far as KS, OK, etc the fact that we’re less populated should also mean we require fewer tests to achieve the same results as larger states, no?

[JVShocker]

I hate to put a damper on things, but I give it 50-50 (at BEST) that students will be allowed on campus for fall semester, and if there are no students allowed on campus, there will NO sports.

Not sports without fans in attendance, ZERO sports at all. And that will be fall and winter. At least.

Now back to your regularly scheduled discussion.