Post-season prediction

[Dan]

We may not get 20 wins before the post season

[ShockerFever]

Still hope for a last 4 in at-large and get to dance...the alternative is ugly!
(missing the Big Dance in consecutive years)

90% of college basketball teams would love to miss the NCAAs 2 out of the last 10 years.

[ShockerFever]

We may not get 20 wins before the post season

lol seriously?

[Dan]

lol seriously?

I think we could realistically go 2-6 the next 8 games

[Stickboy46]

Frame of reference.. not saying it's going to end positive but.. last season we started our turn around with a 2 pt win vs SMU on Jan 30th after getting blown out at UConn by 20 (which is arguably a worse result than what happened today). Today is February 9th ... So a week or so behind last year. We have three very winnable games up next. No reason we can do basically exactly what we did last year ... But this year we actually had a good start to season so we aren't just hoping for an NIT or bust.

[ShockRef]

To say where this team goes from here is a total roll of the dice. I think ES is the face of this team and right now he is struggling with the mental aspect of the game.
Suddenly, the road game @ UCF has taken on monumental importance. Lose there... and this NIT talk becomes credible and realistic.

Either way, RefChick and I will be in Dallas for the tournament. It will be a good time no matter what.
Just hope wherever WSU ends up, its on the opposite side of the bracket with Houston. This group matches up better against the Lakers than UH.
If they played 10 times, well, after today you know what the record would be.

That is all.

[pinstripers]

To say where this team goes from here is a total roll of the dice. I think ES is the face of this team and right now he is struggling with the mental aspect of the game.
Suddenly, the road game @ UCF has taken on monumental importance. Lose there... and this NIT talk becomes credible and realistic.

Either way, RefChick and I will be in Dallas for the tournament. It will be a good time no matter what.
Just hope wherever WSU ends up, its on the opposite side of the bracket with Houston. This group matches up better against the Lakers than UH.
If they played 10 times, well, after today you know what the record would be.

That is all.

karaoke is on, then

[shock]

I’m getting 2007 vibes

[T.VuOP]

I’m getting 2007 vibes

Me two!

[WuShock Reaper]

Either way, RefChick and I will be in Dallas for the tournament.

If you ShockRef, are with RefChick in Dallas for the AAC Tournament, you will be either watching it on TV or about 40 miles off target.

[ShockRef]

If you ShockRef, are with RefChick in Dallas for the AAC Tournament, you will be either watching it on TV or about 40 miles off target.

Reaper,
Ok, DFW area. metroplex, whatever. We'll be there in the arena no matter where it is located.
And we will more than likely find Pin and witness him doing his thing at a local karaoke watering hole.

That is all.

[proshox]

WSU traded arbitrage in the MVC (guaranteed tourney bids - worst case scenario is an at-large 8 out of 10 years) for the validation and excitement of the American. I think people will slowly realize the only thing that truly matters in NCAA basketball is going to the tournament with occasional runs to S16+. WSU had some horrific seeds, but got-in and made noise despite some non-conference failures.

I would bet large sums of money this team doesn’t make the tourney in 2020 and that it will require a modest retool to expect improvement next year.

We can no longer talk to recruits about going to the NCAA yearly and we sure as hell don’t have the chance to build a “can’t be beat mental state” playing through this league. Furthermore, we don’t have recruiting advantages vs. the competition.

If it is this hard when we have the best coach and most resources in over 100+ years of basketball - I don’t know how we expect to be a consistent threat for the tournament.

[proshox]

I forgot to explain the arbitrage statement.

The key: ensure your program has significant advantages vs. your direct competition.

For instance, Winthrop had HCGM and that was enough.

Gonzaga has history and an international brand - competing against St. Mary’s and a few other schools you could not name.

The blue-bloods are recruiting at a level above the BCS field which keeps their floor high.

WSU needed HCGM, WSU fan support, Koch’s $$$, and weak relative competition. Is that an exciting way to look at things? Absolutely not, but it is the simple truth.

Now WSU can still have a great teams and make tournament runs, but our floor is much lower. The probability of long losing streaks increased significantly. As we are seeing now - These steaks can impact reputation, fan support, recruiting, and At-Large chances.

In the American, WSU will go multiple years without realistic chances of getting to the NCAA. I promise that wasn’t going to happen unless we just missed on a head coach.

[ShockerFever]

I think we could realistically go 2-6 the next 8 games

Put your money where your mouth is?

[ShockerFever]

Frame of reference.. not saying it's going to end positive but.. last season we started our turn around with a 2 pt win vs SMU on Jan 30th after getting blown out at UConn by 20 (which is arguably a worse result than what happened today). Today is February 9th ... So a week or so behind last year. We have three very winnable games up next. No reason we can do basically exactly what we did last year ... But this year we actually had a good start to season so we aren't just hoping for an NIT or bust.

I think you are being extremely optimistic trying to compare last year’s situation with this year’s.