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**Mr. Pickle** · December 4, 2019, 09:34 PM

Good work, thanks. Not a real impressive list of good wins; the conference needs to step it up in the 2nd half of the noncon, us included now that we have some chances.

**wufan** · December 5, 2019, 07:30 AM

A bunch of top 50 teams, but no top 20 teams is a good recipe for getting no more than 2 on the dance. Need a top 20 team and a bunch of top 30 teams.

**Stickboy46** · December 5, 2019, 08:28 AM

Updated for Yesterday's games. 4-0 day but none fall into the good win category.

**JVShocker** · December 5, 2019, 10:02 AM

Thanks much for all the work.

I'm not sure that ANY team in college basketball really jumps out this year. A lot of the early preseason Top 10 teams look young, inexperienced, and its reflected in a lot of unusual losses for them. This year more than any recently, it seems like defense, rebounding, and simply making shots could be a key. I know that sounds stupid because its that way every year, but a LOT of teams have had problems with the shot making part of it. If the OTHER TEAM (not prohibitive favorite) has been on, seems like they come away with the win.

**Stickboy46** · December 16, 2019, 11:49 AM

Updated 12/16 and changed over to NET.

**abdullah_sharif** · December 16, 2019, 11:58 AM

thank you sticks.

made the drive with a boise state alum to tulsa last weds to watch the broncos and the canes.. totally underwhelmed. tulsa showed signs of the ability to be streaky but my buddy and i thought they were an incomplete team in focus and ability. cant see tulsa finishing in the top half. and neighter of us see boise winning more than 13 wins this year.

predicting coaching turnover in tulsa if they can negotiate the buyout

**WuDrWu** · December 16, 2019, 12:21 PM

I'm not trying to push a conspiracy theory, but is anyone else bothered by the fact that only 135 teams (at most) fit "good" wins? Half the good wins can only come against the top 39% of the teams, and almost half of those 135 are P5 programs where there maybe, what, a couple dozen chances to play a home game against them?

It looks to me like an adjustment needs to be made about how many teams are in each Q if there's no balance on ability to play home games. Just a thought.

**Cdizzle** · December 16, 2019, 12:48 PM

Originally posted by WuDrWu View Post

I'm not trying to push a conspiracy theory, but is anyone else bothered by the fact that only 135 teams (at most) fit "good" wins? Half the good wins can only come against the top 39% of the teams, and almost half of those 135 are P5 programs where there maybe, what, a couple dozen chances to play a home game against them?

It looks to me like an adjustment needs to be made about how many teams are in each Q if there's no balance on ability to play home games. Just a thought.

Honestly, I think the buckets are pretty decent. There are two things that would actually help:

1. Either a scheduling mandate or actual NCAAT ramifications for no noncon road games.

2. And this is the big one: Actually counting losses for everyone.

People bemoan the NET, but it's more fair than the selection committee. Kentucky ain't done **** and has a home loss to Evansville. NET says bubble team. Talking heads and selection committee would say 2 seed.

**ShockTalk** · December 16, 2019, 12:53 PM

Some of the games that might have gone to the upper non-power 5 conferences are now "challenge P-5" games.

**ShockerFever** · December 16, 2019, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by Cdizzle View Post

Honestly, I think the buckets are pretty decent. There are two things that would actually help:

1. Either a scheduling mandate or actual NCAAT ramifications for no noncon road games.

2. And this is the big one: Actually counting losses for everyone.

People bemoan the NET, but it's more fair than the selection committee. Kentucky ain't done **** and has a home loss to Evansville. NET says bubble team. Talking heads and selection committee would say 2 seed.

While I agree with your premise that UK is horribly overrated and undeserving at this point, it goes the opposite way too.

How the hell is Stanford at #9? 7 home patsies. Lost their only meaningful game against Butler. And won a road game at 2-8 San Jose freaking State. Whoopdie do.

They did crush OU on a neutral floor, but still.

**Cdizzle** · December 16, 2019, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by ShockerFever View Post

While I agree with your premise that UK is horribly overrated and undeserving at this point, it goes the opposite way too.

How the hell is Stanford at #9? 7 home patsies. Lost their only meaningful game against Butler. And won a road game at 2-8 San Jose freaking State. Whoopdie do.

They did crush OU on a neutral floor, but still.

I think it's disingenuous to not count OU as a meaningful game. NET takes into account scoring margin, etc. like kenPom. Which means blasting OU by 20 and losing to Butler by 1 is a net positive for you. I don't think it's perfect. But I do think it's significantly better than the RPI and way better than Digger Phelps deciding. It's also early, so things will get more accurate as we go. Generally speaking though, these numbers are at least based on 'What have you done' and not 'What does Jay Bilas think of you.' I'll take the former every time. You can change it's opinion with your performance and results.

Also, while I'm not going to give them a lot of credit for that win over San Jose State (they happen to be really bad), I am going to be careful about calling a team out for playing local schools on the road. It's something that needs to happen way more, not less. So while I might not be voting them Top 10 because of it, I may not really hold it against them either.

Stanford is an interesting case to watch though. They have played a bottom 20 schedule to this point (their patsies have been TERRIBLE). My guess is that their metrics could swing more wildly than most at this point.

**Stickboy46** · December 16, 2019, 04:35 PM

One odd thing that got pointed out on the other forum ... Tulsa's game vs Colorado State is considered neutral because it's in the BOK center rather than their home arena (4 miles away still in Tulsa). WSU's game vs OU is considered a home game even though it's at IBA (5 miles away from CKA).

Any idea's why? If OU was considered neutral it would be a Q1 win.

**ShockerEngr** · December 18, 2019, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by WuDrWu View Post

I'm not trying to push a conspiracy theory, but is anyone else bothered by the fact that only 135 teams (at most) fit "good" wins? Half the good wins can only come against the top 39% of the teams, and almost half of those 135 are P5 programs where there maybe, what, a couple dozen chances to play a home game against them?

It looks to me like an adjustment needs to be made about how many teams are in each Q if there's no balance on ability to play home games. Just a thought.

Ken Pomeroy has an article about just that in the athletic this week

**ccrunner101** · December 18, 2019, 12:44 PM

I am shocked the Tennessee/Cincy game tonight is a pick em in Vegas. Figured it would be Tennessee by like 6. Since that is the case, guess I will go bet Cincy....eeeek

Announcement

AAC Status So Far and Remaining Non-Con Games

AAC Status So Far and Remaining Non-Con Games

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