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2019-20 National Rankings

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  • Originally posted by ShockerFever View Post

    I understand your point and I generally agree with a lot of it. But ultimately, the game is about wins and losses. Let's put it this way. Would you rather have a team go 25-5 with an average margin of victory of 13 points/game or go 30-0 with an average margin of victory of 5 points/game.. same team playing the same schedule? I get there's style involved and margin of victory does account for something. But again, isn't ultimately about the W's?

    And regarding this particular case, when you have 2 teams with basically very close to nearly identical resumes and metrics, wouldn't you give the nod to the team who just beat the other team on the road by double digits?

    And also, Ohio State is currently 7th in KP. Do you really think they should be ranked in the Top 10 right now?
    I wouldn't choose to rank Ohio State in the Top 10. Top 15, probably. I personally would use a hybrid method (somewhere in between the Wins Above Bubble/descriptive metrics and KenPom/predictive metrics). I'm fine with rewarding teams for being consistent. But I could totally see why someone would be like, "Team A's record is not consistent with their metrics," or vice versa. The AP poll is kind of a weird thing where if a team loses a game they were supposed to lose (say #15 is on the road at #30), they drop.

    Your example is perfect. The 25-5 team is likely better, efficiency-wise, than the 30-0 team.

    One of my points here is that it's not untenable to have KU ahead of Baylor. Would I do it? Probably not. I'd probably rank Baylor ahead of KU. But based on the data available, it seems to be telling us that KU is slightly better, efficiency-wise, than Baylor, and that makes a decent case for ranking KU ahead of Baylor.
    "In God we trust, all others must bring data." - W. Edwards Deming

    Comment


    • Originally posted by ShockCrazy View Post

      Look at his history and consider if you think he's actually biased. https://collegepolltracker.com/baske...-jayhawks/2019
      He currently has us ranked 7 spots lower than then actual spot in the rankings and 4 lower than any of the other 64 voters. All I need to know.

      In a week in which WSU was 2-0 including a road win and a pretty solid beating of a Top 25 squad along with a TON of other teams ahead of WSU losing, WSU moves up 1 spot ... while multiple teams with similar or less weeks move up a ton.

      There is bias .. it's ok to admit it. It's wrong to have it, but it's ok to admit it

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Kel Varnsen View Post

        I wouldn't choose to rank Ohio State in the Top 10. Top 15, probably. I personally would use a hybrid method (somewhere in between the Wins Above Bubble/descriptive metrics and KenPom/predictive metrics). I'm fine with rewarding teams for being consistent. But I could totally see why someone would be like, "Team A's record is not consistent with their metrics," or vice versa. The AP poll is kind of a weird thing where if a team loses a game they were supposed to lose (say #15 is on the road at #30), they drop.

        Your example is perfect. The 25-5 team is likely better, efficiency-wise, than the 30-0 team.

        One of my points here is that it's not untenable to have KU ahead of Baylor. Would I do it? Probably not. I'd probably rank Baylor ahead of KU. But based on the data available, it seems to be telling us that KU is slightly better, efficiency-wise, than Baylor, and that makes a decent case for ranking KU ahead of Baylor.
        I hope KU hangs their efficiency banner this year!!!

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        • Originally posted by Stickboy46 View Post

          I hope KU hangs their efficiency banner this year!!!
          Careful, they might actually. Not sure it's even worth it for them since Memphis gets to hang the recruiting banner this year.

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          • We live in an imperfect world. KP isn’t the end all be all nor is head to head. I’m enjoying this debate, it’s part of what makes sports fun.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Kel Varnsen View Post

              I wouldn't choose to rank Ohio State in the Top 10. Top 15, probably. I personally would use a hybrid method (somewhere in between the Wins Above Bubble/descriptive metrics and KenPom/predictive metrics). I'm fine with rewarding teams for being consistent. But I could totally see why someone would be like, "Team A's record is not consistent with their metrics," or vice versa. The AP poll is kind of a weird thing where if a team loses a game they were supposed to lose (say #15 is on the road at #30), they drop.

              Your example is perfect. The 25-5 team is likely better, efficiency-wise, than the 30-0 team.

              One of my points here is that it's not untenable to have KU ahead of Baylor. Would I do it? Probably not. I'd probably rank Baylor ahead of KU. But based on the data available, it seems to be telling us that KU is slightly better, efficiency-wise, than Baylor, and that makes a decent case for ranking KU ahead of Baylor.
              So am I understanding you correctly that you'd rather be 25-5 than 30-0 against the same schedule?

              No case IMO for ranking KU ahead of Baylor when the actual game itself was played out on KU's home court one day prior to voting.
              Deuces Valley.
              ... No really, deuces.
              ________________
              "Enjoy the ride."

              - a smart man

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              • So Jesse....do we just not play college basketball anymore and come up with some "metric" that shows individual 4 and 5 Star players previous high school stats??? Should we simply compile all their high school stats and predict how well that college team will be once the college teams roster are set????
                FINAL FOURS:
                1965, 2013

                NCAA Tournament:
                1964, 1965, 1976, 1981, 1985, 1987, 1988, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018

                NIT Champs - 1 (2011)

                AP Poll History of Wichita State:
                Number of Times Ranked: 157
                Number of Times Ranked #1: 1
                Number of Times Top 5: 32 (Most Recent - 2017)
                Number of Times Top 10: 73 (Most Recent - 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017)

                Highest Recent AP Ranking:
                #3 - Dec. 2017
                #2 ~ March 2014

                Highest Recent Coaches Poll Ranking:
                #2 ~ March 2014
                Finished 2013 Season #4

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                • Originally posted by Cdizzle View Post
                  I'm willing to accept, based on his voting history, that he does not have a significant anti-WSU bias.

                  I'm not willing to accept, based on his voting history, that he does not have a significant pro-KU bias.

                  Setting those 2 things aside, as I've tried to have people do before in this discussion; look at the rest of his ballot. It's a disaster.
                  It's pretty much KP top 25 with tweaks. You can disagree with the methodology but it's not completely off the wall. Would I do it? No. But I see what he's looking at.

                  I also find it interesting that for YEARS we likes to point to KP as a better more objective way to look at teams, because it correctly showed how we were consistently underrated. And a few weeks into a season where it's not favorable. WHY IS SOMEONE DOING THAT?

                  Lots of ballots are a "mess" because they are subjective. Let's take Edgar Thompson who has us tied for the highest of all voters at 12: https://collegepolltracker.com/baske...n/2019/week-11 he has Kentucky at 5?!?!? Colorado at 14. Dayton somehow all the way at 19. He's ranking St. Mary's for some stupid reason. It's just the nature of polls.

                  Honestly almost every single ballot has one or two WTF every single week, it's just only noticed when it's your team on the right or wrong side of it.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by ShockerFever View Post

                    So am I understanding you correctly that you'd rather be 25-5 than 30-0 against the same schedule?

                    No case IMO for ranking KU ahead of Baylor when the actual game itself was played out on KU's home court one day prior to voting.
                    I'd rather be 30-0, but if we're only winning by a point or two every game, that may mean the numbers say we're not as good as the 25-5 team.
                    "In God we trust, all others must bring data." - W. Edwards Deming

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by ShockCrazy View Post

                      It's pretty much KP top 25 with tweaks. You can disagree with the methodology but it's not completely off the wall. Would I do it? No. But I see what he's looking at.

                      I also find it interesting that for YEARS we likes to point to KP as a better more objective way to look at teams, because it correctly showed how we were consistently underrated. And a few weeks into a season where it's not favorable. WHY IS SOMEONE DOING THAT?

                      Lots of ballots are a "mess" because they are subjective. Let's take Edgar Thompson who has us tied for the highest of all voters at 12: https://collegepolltracker.com/baske...n/2019/week-11 he has Kentucky at 5?!?!? Colorado at 14. Dayton somehow all the way at 19. He's ranking St. Mary's for some stupid reason. It's just the nature of polls.

                      Honestly almost every single ballot has one or two WTF every single week, it's just only noticed when it's your team on the right or wrong side of it.
                      Though 12 is closer to our collective average of metrics than 23.

                      If someone is just going to rank by KenPom, just give Pomeroy an AP vote.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Kel Varnsen View Post

                        I'd rather be 30-0, but if we're only winning by a point or two every game, that may mean the numbers say we're not as good as the 25-5 team.
                        Sounds like something a loser would say

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                        • No one is arguing that Edgar Thompson's ballot isn't a mess. It is. WSU at 12 is high. WSU in front of West Virginia is untenable. You're building a strawman. No one is defending Edgar Thompson. You ARE defending Newell.

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                          • Originally posted by Kel Varnsen View Post

                            I'd rather be 30-0, but if we're only winning by a point or two every game, that may mean the numbers say we're not as good as the 25-5 team.
                            Then the numbers are wrong and need changed. The point is to win games, not be efficient.

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Cdizzle View Post

                              Then the numbers are wrong and need changed. The point is to win games, not be efficient.
                              Should a team be perceived as a better team if they only won a game by 5 yet they were supposed to win by 15?

                              You don't play to win by 1 point.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by FadedCrown View Post

                                Should a team be perceived as a better team if they only won a game by 5 yet they were supposed to win by 15?

                                You don't play to win by 1 point.
                                Who gets to decide what they win by? I'm sure you can grab any one of 15 different metrics that will give you different answer? And if it's Vegas, Vegas isn't trying to be accurate, they are trying to come out positive on bets

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