2019-20 Bracketology

[Shocker1976]

[ OTE=shoxlax;n1216144]

Six wins and a win in the conference tournament and we’re in. There will be a lot of teams shitting the bed in other conferences. 7-3 and a win or two in the conference tournament and we are a single digit seed.

The question is where do we get our wins: Tulane and USF at home. Probably Temple. SMU, Cincy and Tulsa are no guarantees at our place and only UCF on the road jumps out as us being the favorites.[/QUOTE]

Respectable 3 point shooting percentages (35%?) by the Shockers could result in a 10 game win streak culminating in a 27-4 season; but I am not confident the Shockers can attain such a percentage. With modest 3 point percentage (30%) performance consider -

4 likely Shocker victories @ CKA - Tulane, USF, Temple and Tulsa

3 probable victories - Cincinnati @ CKA, @UCF, @SMU

3 unlikely Shocker victories - @Houston,@Cincinnati, @Memphis

[WeWillShockU]

We can’t lose anymore home games and expect at large bid. Thursday is huge.

[Dan]

Technically we can lose our next game but that just means we have to start talking about going undefeated from there on out. We’re certainly digging a deeper hole for ourselves with each loss.

[TheShocktocles]

I’ll toss out my contrary opinion. I actually thought that this was the best game we’ve played since UConn. Aside from the poor shooting I thought we did everything thing else pretty well. It appears to me the top four teams are pretty evenly matched. I expect we will take several of the remaining games against the contenders. Time will tell. Let’s get started this Thursday!

Aside from the poor shooting, I totally agree. Lets wait and see how the season ends before all the gloom and doom.

[Stickboy46]

Technically we can lose our next game but that just means we have to start talking about going undefeated from there on out. We’re certainly digging a deeper hole for ourselves with each loss.

lol ... so we have to go 26-5 in the regular season to get a bid?? ... stop it. We were able to get an at-large doing that in the Valley, we aren't in the valley. We went 24-6 in 2018 and got a 4 seed ...

[ShockerFever]

lol ... so we have to go 26-5 in the regular season to get a bid?? ... stop it. We were able to get an at-large doing that in the Valley, we aren't in the valley. We went 24-6 in 2018 and got a 4 seed ...

You can’t compare records from different years and expect similar results. What was our KP in 2018? How many Q1 wins did we have? What place did we finish in the conference?

I wouldnt be laughing at that observation. Most bracketologies had us on the 8 line with a 17-3 record BEFORE Saturday’s loss. What makes you think we’re safely in? Our 0-3 record in Q1 games?

[FadedCrown]

2018 Resume: 25-7
Q1: 3-4 Q2: 11-2 Q3: 3-1 Q4: 8-0

2020 Projected Resume: 24-7
Q1: 2-5 Q2: 9-2 Q3: 5-0 Q4: 8-0

[Dan]

its funny how with every loss we have a group of people that think we're still safely in. Do you not see the obvious trend here? We have a historically bad offense. We are trending down, not up. If we lose a home game against Cincy, we have to make it up by winning a game or 2 or 3 against a respectable opponent (@ Houston for starters). We can't just sweep the Tulane and ECUs of the world and expect to get in on record alone.

[FadedCrown]

its funny how with every loss we have a group of people that think we're still safely in. Do you not see the obvious trend here? We have a historically bad offense. We are trending down, not up. If we lose a home game against Cincy, we have to make it up by winning a game or 2 or 3 against a respectable opponent (@ Houston for starters). We can't just sweep the Tulane and ECUs of the world and expect to get in on record alone.

Our offense is not historically bad, but it's has been really bad recently. I guess recency bias takes over.

Anyway, we need 23 wins for an at-large. Take that as you will.

[asiseeit]

23 will probably do it if, I say if, we finish in the top four of the league or finals of the conf tournament

[WSUwatcher]

I keep talking about 24-7 (12-6 conference). The last time that happened, the Shocks were in an 8-9 game when they were still in the Valley. When the Shocks won 24 regular season games (admittedly, 14 of them in league play) their first year in the American, they were a #4 seed.

Too much dithering going on here.

[abdullah_sharif]

as good as our defense is, and its silky smooth although its not easy to watch sometimes.. our offense is tough to watch. this is the week the guys should be getting at least 250 makes a day in with the guards making 2/3 of those from 3. its gonna take more time than just practice - this is where great is separated from just good. we’ll see how the guys respond.

[Stickboy46]

its funny how with every loss we have a group of people that think we're still safely in. Do you not see the obvious trend here? We have a historically bad offense. We are trending down, not up. If we lose a home game against Cincy, we have to make it up by winning a game or 2 or 3 against a respectable opponent (@ Houston for starters). We can't just sweep the Tulane and ECUs of the world and expect to get in on record alone.

It's funny after every loss that we have a group of people think we have been booted out of the tournament.

Guess some people just forgot we aren't in the Valley anymore.

[WuShock Reaper]

NCAA tournament Bubble Watch: First look at the wildest bubble in years - ESPN

John Gasaway, ESPN Insider
Posted: Feb 2, 2020

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/28577356/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch-first-look-wildest-bubble-years

"Is this the wildest and most volatile bubble ever? Possibly! We say that's the case every season, but this time we really mean it.

Seven different teams have held the No. 1 spot in the AP poll. Ohio State has gone from a virtual No. 1 seed to near-bubble status. Rutgers is shown here under "should be in." North Carolina is nowhere to be seen. Wild.

Bubble Watch 2020 is here to wrest clarity from the chaos and give you a clear picture of where the tournament field stands. To deliver on that mission, the Watch will once again be 100% live. Team bubble profiles will be updated continuously as games are played. As has been the case since the dawn of Bubble time, the categories in play are "locks," "should be in" and "work to do." Over the coming days, the top of the "should be in" section will migrate more or less en masse into the lock category. Do not get riled that your favorite team is shown here as "should be in" instead of under "locks." It is but a phase, an opportunity for Bubble Watch to salute your team in prose, a chance we never got with the stunning likes of San Diego State and Dayton. (We hardly knew ye.) You'll find the bubble mapped out quantitatively here because, well, that's how the NCAA men's basketball selection committee puts together the field. The committee has 32 automatic bids and 36 at-large invites to distribute. The Watch measures the bubble by projecting how many of those invites will go to traditional one-bid leagues.

Consider the made-to-order example of 2020 tournament no-brainer San Diego State. If the Aztecs should see fit to win the Mountain West tournament, Brian Dutcher's group is likely to be the only team from the MWC in the field of 68. However, for our purposes, we're counting and indeed listing SDSU as a lock while projecting there will be 21 other leagues that will absorb just one tournament bid. Double-counting is strictly prohibited here in the Bubble Watch bungalow. Accounting for each bid shows us how large the bubble truly is in this brutal zero-sum selection world. On Selection Sunday 2019, Bubble Watch correctly forecast the share of the field that would be awarded to representatives of one-bid leagues. We're going for 2-for-2 this season.

Here's our initial projection of the bubble:

Bids from traditional "one-bid" leagues: 21 teams
Locks: 10 teams

The bubble: 44 teams for 37 available spots
Should be in: 21 teams
Work to do: 23 teams

American Conference

Locks: None

Wichita State Shockers - Should be in
If there can be such a thing as a projected No. 7 seed that seems shaky, Wichita State might fit the description. After losing by three at Tulsa (on Elijah Joiner's nifty buzzer-beater), the Shockers now stand at 17-4. The two opponents Gregg Marshall's group has played that are currently ranked in the top 25, West Virginia and Houston, beat Wichita State by 12 and 11 points, respectively, and neither of those contests were road games. Finally, Wichita State is 5-3 in the American, and, for the moment, ranks as one of the two least accurate offenses from the field in league play. It just feels a bit shaky for a spot on the No. 7 line, even allowing for Jaime Echenique's 15-10 double-double (with three blocks and two steals) against the Golden Hurricane.

Houston Cougars - Should be in
Few teams have profiles that probe the boundary lines of the NCAA's team sheets quite like Houston. The neutral-floor win the Cougars notched against Washington might or might not qualify as Quad 1 depending on which side of No. 50 the Huskies inhabit in the NET rankings on a given day. The same can be said for the boundary at No. 75, South Carolina, and Houston's true road victory in Columbia in December. The bottom line here is that enough of these close evaluative calls have gone Houston's way to land the team on the No. 7 line in reputable mock brackets. The loss at Cincinnati notwithstanding, that bracket position could turn out to be about right if the Cougars keep outscoring the American by 0.12 points per possession.

Memphis Tigers - Work to do
Penny Hardaway's youthful rotation is in danger of dropping out of the projected 68-team field. The 40-point loss at Tulsa was both worrisome and further evidence of the Tigers' inability, thus far, to score points against American defenses. Nevertheless, the NET still smiles on Memphis, relatively speaking, giving the team a perch around No. 50. Perhaps the rating system is on to something: Precious Achiuwa, for one, has taken his interior scoring prowess to a whole new level in conference play. If Achiuwa becomes more of a Tigers trend and less of an exception, this team might be able to stay in the field.

[Dan]

It's funny after every loss that we have a group of people think we have been booted out of the tournament.

Guess some people just forgot we aren't in the Valley anymore.

Not that I think that one loss gets us booted, it's the lack of improvement and downward trend that concerns me. The way we are playing and our lack of offensive production is making our shot at winning some of the tough games ahead more and more unrealistic, thus the doom and gloom on my part.