Wichita State vs Furman Paladins Pregame

[SB Shock]

Shock Top That tells me the numbers think Furman would have finished better in the American than WSU did, which I think there is little chance that would happen.

I am a big fan of numbers and metrics, but sometimes they can lie. WSU now isn’t the same team that lost to La Tech and Davidson.

I like WSU’s chances as a lot stronger than 25%.

---

• Metrics do only provide a snapshot of the whole season, and you are right maybe WSU has grown so much that if they repeated the season they would now be an at-large team. But all the metrics say that Furman is the better team.
  
  WSU ranking in "( )"
  
  NET 41 (83)
  RPI 56 (73)
  KenPom 56 (93)
  BPI 57 (95)
  
  But I wish we knew the weighting they are using for the NET. It really looks like why WSU NET is so much lower than Furman is road record (WSU in "( )'
  
  Road 11-4 (4-7)
  Q1 1-5 (1-7)
  Q2 3-1 (5-6)
  Q3 2-1 (5-1)
  Q4 16-0 (8-0)
  
  SOS 180 (60)

[ShockerFever]

Furman is the better team. That's not even a question.

[Shock Top]

Notice I didn't say they would do worse. I said they wouldn't do better.

They very well could have gone 10-8 (hell 11-7 because they probably wouldn't have blow a late 11 point plead at home), but would they have gone 12-6 or 13-5? That's what I doubt.

[Shock Top]

Maybe they don't pee the bed @ USF and hold off and win against Memphis at home, so maybe they do get to 13-5.

I guess my whole point is I believe, right now, WSU has a better than 25% chance to win.

[ShockerFever]

It's amazing how well these coaches know foreign teams in a matter of hours of learning the matchup. He was basically on point to a tee.

And yes a very strong interview. Seems like a solid young coach. He's basically turned that program into relevance in a successive pattern ever since he's been there. Sound familiar?

I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a few looks down the road..

[1972Shocker]

https://goshockers.com/news/2019/3/17/mens-basketball-shockers-selected-for-nit-open-wed-at-furman.aspx

WSU and Furman have never met on the hardwood. The winner will face either No. 2 seed Clemson (19-13) or No. 7 seed Wright State (21-13) next weekend. Higher seeds host in each of the first three rounds.

This is WSU's 13th NIT appearance and its first since winning the 2011 NIT championship. WSU has appeared in 11-straight postseasons under head coach Gregg Marshall, who enters Wednesday's tournament opener with 499 career victories. WSU had played in each of the seven previous NCAA Tournaments. Prior to that, Marshall led the Shockers to the 2009 CBI and back-to-back NITS in 2010 and 2011.

The Paladins finished third in the Southern Conference regular season. This is their second NIT appearance and first since 1991. Furman made back-to-back CIT's in 2016 and 2017, reaching the semifinals in the latter.

Top-seed Indiana, No. 8 Saint Francis (PA), No. 4 Providence and No. 5 Arkansas round out the Shockers' eight-team regional pod.

The articles includes a history of WSU results in the NIT.

[BOBB]

So we need to root for Wright State if we want a home game?

[wichshock65]

Meh, Shocks by 20.

[im4wsu]

Who do you defend Lyons with, SHJ, JB, RT or ??? 65% of his attempts are from three where he makes 34.5%, but only 49.1% from 2. Gets to the line about like Burton, so not much of a driver/slasher. Only 5'11, can SHJ quickness stay with him, or is JB's size better to close out on the three?

Player	Lyons	Burton	SHJ
G	32	33	33
GS	31	24	33
MP	1047	797	1073
FG	179	72	150
FGA	452	183	411
FG%	0.396	0.393	0.365
2P	78	62	90
2PA	159	147	213
2P%	0.491	0.422	0.423
3P	101	10	60
3PA	293	36	198
3P%	0.345	0.278	0.303
FT	55	53	40
FTA	73	75	49
FT%	0.753	0.707	0.816
ORB	14	38	17
DRB	57	80	66
TRB	71	118	83
AST	72	112	90
STL	39	17	22
BLK	2	2	2
TOV	74	58	49
PF	37	66	61
PTS	514	207	400

[Jhook89]

First of all, extremely impressed with Furman’s resume and stats. Without watching any of their games their resume reminds me of the Shockers 4 or 5 years ago in the MVC. A lot of wrecking inferior teams by 15+ with a close to .500 record against quality opponents. We will have our hands full this with this team, that’s for sure.

That being said, I think this is a great matchup for us. They have essentially 0 depth and are an extremely small team across the board. It will be interesting to see how coach desides to handle Rafferty. Anyone have a clue how athletic this kid is? The fact that he isn’t a 3 pt shooter makes me feel we should be able to put Jaime and Poor Bear on him and be fine. Looks like a poor matchup for Midtgaard. With them being so small we could actually shift Markus to the 5 at times and still be fine.

Their 4 shoots 42.5% from 3, so whoever we have on him needs to be attached to his hip all night. If we pound it downlow with Jaime and Markus we should have a massive advantage in the front court on offense. If either one of their starting front court gets in foul trouble they are in deep trouble.

Their guards are pretty small, they start 2 5’11” guys. Lyons is their second leading scorer at 16 ppg. Thinking we put Dexter on him and and let Dexters 6” advantage frustrate the kid. All their other guards look to be good 3 pt shooters. Our longer, stronger, and quicker guards should bother them.

My surprise player to have a big impact is Burton. I think his physical bully ball style of play will be extremely effective against their small guards. Plus, he will not be a high priority for Furman, as far as scouting report goes. It’s very possible Burton will have the worst defense guard on him at all times. I’m predicting at least 15 for Burton.

The 3 pt line being pushed back also helps us tremendously, since they love to kick it out to the 3 pt line. Should be a fun game, but I like our chances.

[1972Shocker]

Nice analysis.

[ShockTalk]

If SHJ can play D like he did against Cumberland, I'd consider putting him on Lyons. Furman doesn't really have a 5 type player and I have no idea how they play Mounce and Rafferty together. On paper, Mounce is their top 3 pt shooter and at 6'7", Dennis might be better on him. On the surface, I'm just not sure how much we can play our 5s. Should be able to score, but can they defend these type of forwards. I'd certainly want to give it a try to start with, I'm just not sure who they can guard effectively. I think Gurley might be the back up for both Mounce and Rafferty. Brown (6'5" guard who probably plays the 3) has the fewest minutes of their top 6, but is their 2nd best 3pt shooter at 41%. We may not have a choice but to play our 5s on Rafferty. While Brown may not be much of an offensive weapon, he could be effective on defense.

[Jhook89]

I agree that we will see a major increase in minutes for Brown. I think match ups boil down to who 3G chooses to cover Rafferty.

[Stickboy46]

Furman opens at 4.5 point favorites

[choida]

Good... As they should be... bulletin board much?

[im4wsu]

Somebody asked how Fruman was trending defensively. Here are stats for three previous 10-game set, Offense, Defense and Offense-Defense (negative numbers are shaded where defense is better than offense

OFFENSE		Tm	Opp	MOV/gm	FG%	% from 3	3P%	%FT/FGA	FT%	ORB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF
WSU	Prev 10	73	66.9	6.1	0.391	0.422	0.306	0.307	0.779	10.9	37.4	14.9	4.3	4.2	9.1	18.5
	Prev 10	68.8	69.3	-0.5	0.421	0.36	0.316	0.284	0.749	9.1	32.1	12.3	4.5	2.9	11.6	19.8
	Last 10	72.1	71.3	0.8	0.413	0.379	0.296	0.279	0.712	11.3	35.1	13.8	4.8	2.9	12.4	18.9
FURMAN	Prev 10	76.4	63.1	13.3	0.497	0.475	0.381	0.298	0.742	7.1	30.4	14.7	7.9	5.2	11.9	15.7
	Prev 10	72.4	69.6	2.8	0.443	0.501	0.344	0.237	0.741	8.7	29.9	14.5	8.8	2.9	13.2	14.9
	Last 10	84.2	67.3	16.9	0.487	0.463	0.372	0.243	0.673	10.1	36.8	18.8	9.7	4.5	12.1	12.8
DEFENSE
WSU	Prev 10				0.389	0.344	0.32	0.375	0.702	9.6	33.9	11.7	3.3	4.6	10.6	16.2
	Prev 10				0.436	0.376	0.376	0.432	0.642	7.8	29.5	11.1	5.5	4.8	11.7	17.2
	Last 10				0.438	0.377	0.327	0.374	0.737	7.1	31.3	11.6	5.5	2.6	12.8	17.4
FURMAN	Prev 10				0.393	0.373	0.29	0.233	0.732	10.7	31.2	9.4	7.5	2.8	12.5	16.1
	Prev 10				0.45	0.398	0.322	0.27	0.708	8.3	31.2	12.3	7.1	3.7	14.4	15.7
	Last 10				0.412	0.405	0.352	0.186	0.603	9.2	32.3	13.4	7.4	3.7	14.8	16.5
OFF - DEF					FG%	% from 3	3P%	%FT/FGA	FT%	ORB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF
WSU	Prev 10				0.002	0.078	-0.014	-0.068	0.077	1.3	3.5	3.2	1	-0.4	-1.5	2.3
	Prev 10				-0.015	-0.016	-0.06	-0.148	0.107	1.3	2.6	1.2	-1	-1.9	-0.1	2.6
	Last 10				-0.025	0.002	-0.031	-0.095	-0.025	4.2	3.8	2.2	-0.7	0.3	-0.4	1.5
FURMAN	Prev 10				0.104	0.102	0.091	0.065	0.01	-3.6	-0.8	5.3	0.4	2.4	-0.6	-0.4
	Prev 10				-0.007	0.103	0.022	-0.033	0.033	0.4	-1.3	2.2	1.7	-0.8	-1.2	-0.8
	Last 10				0.075	0.058	0.02	0.057	0.07	0.9	4.5	5.4	2.3	0.8	-2.7	-3.7

[Dan]

I watched some Furman highlights. Rafferty is not just a post player feeding the 3 point shooters. He moves around the court, will shoot 3 pointers himself and will look for guards cutting to the basket. He does a lot of interior passing from the perimeter. I'm not sure AM will be able to follow him all over the court, this may be a job for McDuffie. Regardless, we have to deny him the ball so he can't hurt us with his passing.

[SHOXAAC]

I watched some Furman highlights. Rafferty is not just a post player feeding the 3 point shooters. He moves around the court, will shoot 3 pointers himself and will look for guards cutting to the basket. He does a lot of interior passing from the perimeter. I'm not sure AM will be able to follow him all over the court, this may be a job for McDuffie. Regardless, we have to deny him the ball so he can't hurt us with his passing.

Thank you Dan. My analysis stands on Rafferty...shockerfan owes me an apology (lol, just kidding).

[shockerfan]

Lol my bad. Good to know!

I went back the past 13 games and took all the stats. But I wont post them since it's basically in the chart above.

Both teams are 10-3 in their last 13.

The average net ranking for last 13 WSU opponents - 146
Average Net ranking for last 13 Furman opponents - 183

WSU best Net ranking win of last 13 - 56
Furman best Net ranking win of last 13 - 60

WSU worst Net ranking loss of last 13 - 46
Furman worst Net ranking loss of last 13 - 160

[WstateU]

https://media.giphy.com/media/27FmEE89zFtMA/giphy.gif

[shockerfan]

Lol Will be tough, which we already knew.

Not sure any of these stats or numbers tell us much. Just fun to look at and compare.

Guess we will see what happens Wednesday!!!

[WstateU]

I think it shows we're about even. Unfortunately, coach Marshall says the home team has a 7 point advantage, so we better be on our game from the get-go.

[WSUwatcher]

Metrics do only provide a snapshot of the whole season, and you are right maybe WSU has grown so much that if they repeated the season they would now be an at-large team. But all the metrics say that Furman is the better team.

I've always wondered whether the metrics apply equally to strong conferences and teams who play the majority of their games in them vs. lesser conferences, and how effectively the metric gurus like Pomeroy are able to adjust for the differences. I suspect that a similar doubt was also part of why WSU didn't get the treatment in its MVC days that it appeared to command based on KenPom, etc.

Personally, I think WSU has a much better chance than Pomeroy does, but playing on the road against a team that may (or conceivably may not; they could also be disappointed about missing the NCAA -- that's what their coach has to deal with as a motivator and what the players have to deal with internally) be pretty excited about their chance to show the world what they've got could certainly be a challenge.

As for how Furman would have done in the American, who knows? It's wildly implausible, given the relative quality of the two leagues, to think they could have finished 13-5. But whether they could have matched WSU's 10-8 doesn't seem a huge stretch; three games is a considerable margin.

[Shox The Revenant]

I watched some Furman highlights. Rafferty is not just a post player feeding the 3 point shooters. He moves around the court, will shoot 3 pointers himself and will look for guards cutting to the basket. He does a lot of interior passing from the perimeter. I'm not sure AM will be able to follow him all over the court, this may be a job for McDuffie. Regardless, we have to deny him the ball so he can't hurt us with his passing.

Spot on, here's a highlight video on youtube. This type of player poses problems because he can post up a player down low, appears to be a great passer finding the open 3 point shooter or the player cutting to the basket and can even shoot the three a little bit. AM is not fast or agile enough to guard this guy all over the court.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_RT-n_FsKc

[bighouse]

reminds me of Seth Tuttle

[Shock Top]

Lol my bad. Good to know!

I went back the past 13 games and took all the stats. But I wont post them since it's basically in the chart above.

Both teams are 10-3 in their last 13.

The average net ranking for last 13 WSU opponents - 146
Average Net ranking for last 13 Furman opponents - 183

WSU best Net ranking win of last 13 - 56
Furman best Net ranking win of last 13 - 60

WSU worst Net ranking loss of last 13 - 46
Furman worst Net ranking loss of last 13 - 160

WSU has played more games against the Top 100 NET in that stretch; 10 to 4. In that stretch WSU went 7-3 and Furman 2-2

Granted, those 4 games Furman played were all in the Top 72:
W - @ UNCG (60)
W - ETSU (72)
L - Wofford (13)
L - SoCon Tourney: UNCG (60)

WSU played 2 games in that range and went 1-1:
L - Memphis (46)
W - AAC Tourney: Temple (56)

Again, numbers can only say so much, but I like WSU's chances to be better than 25%.

[SHOXAAC]

I have called about 6 sports bars and none carry any ESPN3 events. Does anybody know of a public place that does and will carry the game Wednesday?

[choida]

Side pockets Out West