2012 Bracketbuster Game

[ShockerFever]

Looks like the panic from the usual suspects is starting early this year. Get out the meds, guys -- there's plenty of time left, and a lot of games. Putting the words "Shox" and "play-in" in even the same sentence is just plain goofy, and that's probably being unkind to the goofy community.

For perspective, here are a few other Warren Nolan RPI ranks as of today: Clemson 138th, Notre Dame 174th, Texas 236th, Cincinnati 265th. Yes, I know that all of those teams have more good RPI games ahead of them than WSU does. But the Shocker schedule is not without opportunity, and the Valley is not bereft of good teams either. The next month is important for the Shocks, no doubt. But they certainly have the wherewithal to make it a good month, at which point the poster panic will hopefully subside (at least for a few minutes).

Spoken like a true fan who's lost on reality. I guess you value NIT Championships more so than anything NCAA-related. Makes sense.

[ShockerFever]

I do have a VIP membership and these ratings were last updated this morning at 11:48 CST

That's interesting. I surely thought that would at least be a day old, with MSU tanking and CU getting a big road win. I don't understand how MSU is 18th after their loss last night. I guess it's still too early to get a good accurate look on these numbers.

[1972Shocker]

That's interesting. I surely thought that would at least be a day old, with MSU tanking and CU getting a big road win. I don't understand how MSU is 18th after their loss last night. I guess it's still too early to get a good accurate look on these numbers.

Yeah, I think it shows how much these numbers move around early in the year. By the time conference play starts they should stabilize somewhat.

[The Mad Hatter]

Spoken like a true fan who's lost on reality. I guess you value NIT Championships more so than anything NCAA-related. Makes sense.

No, @WSUwatcher is right. People decide way, way too early what games are must wins. Take last year for example. Most people on this board will tell you that we didn't get an at-large because we lost against UCONN and SDSU in the non-con, which they deemed must wins. The truth however, is much more complicated. We would have had a legit shot at an at-large berth if we wouldn't have lost both the SIU and VCU games late in the year.

Does winning games like UCONN and SDSU last year or UNLV this year go a long way to securing an at-large bid? Absolutely! Does that make them must win for getting an at-large? Usually not. Losing them gives you less room for error, but it doesn't eliminate at-large possibilities.

[ShockerFever]

No, @WSUwatcher is right. People decide way, way too early what games are must wins. Take last year for example. Most people on this board will tell you that we didn't get an at-large because we lost against UCONN and SDSU in the non-con, which they deemed must wins. The truth however, is much more complicated. We would have had a legit shot at an at-large berth if we wouldn't have lost both the SIU and VCU games late in the year.

Does winning games like UCONN and SDSU last year or UNLV this year go a long way to securing an at-large bid? Absolutely! Does that make them must win for getting an at-large? Usually not. Losing them gives you less room for error, but it doesn't eliminate at-large possibilities.

I know its really early but acting like a game at home against UNLV is just another ho-hummer that we can afford losing is a very dangerous and short-sighted mindset. I sure hope the players don't have that one going into the game..

The Valley this year appears to be much better than last year. That has its pluses and minuses. Unless you think we're gonna go 14-4 in it again, I don't think you can relate this year to last year. We didn't have one single quality win last year, and for sure nothing sexy OOC. I really wouldn't put my entire hand out on a 15-3 Valley season and no quality OOC wins. That's just me.

[Metalkatz]

Speaking of how good the Valley is, I know there was an ESPN Insider article about it within the last few days. Can anyone fill us in on that?
And also anyone know what the valley is ranked in terms of conferences?
Thanks and Ill hang up and listen.

[The Mad Hatter]

I know its really early but acting like a game at home against UNLV is just another ho-hummer that we can afford losing is a very dangerous and short-sighted mindset. I sure hope the players don't have that one going into the game..

The Valley this year appears to be much better than last year. That has its pluses and minuses. Unless you think we're gonna go 14-4 in it again, I don't think you can relate this year to last year. We didn't have one single quality win last year, and for sure nothing sexy OOC. I really wouldn't put my entire hand out on a 15-3 Valley season and no quality OOC wins. That's just me.

No argument here that it is an important game, I just wish people would find a way to describe it as important without claiming that all hopes of an at-large disappear with a loss. Every year it seems that a set of fans have written off any hope of an at-large because they bought this line of reasoning only to be shocked by which teams are still in contention for an at-large in the last several weeks of the season.

I don't think any of us would prefer to loss the early opportunities for impressive wins (thus giving less wiggle room later in the season), but the fact that all of us would prefer to bolster our resume whenever possible is a different argument than that our resume is definitively shot for having failed in the early opportunities.

[1972Shocker]

Speaking of how good the Valley is, I know there was an ESPN Insider article about it within the last few days. Can anyone fill us in on that?
And also anyone know what the valley is ranked in terms of conferences?
Thanks and Ill hang up and listen.

realtimerpi.com has the MVC ranked 9th out of 32 conferences at this point. Here are their top 12 as of today:

1 Big Ten .6033
2 ACC .5773
3 SEC .5699
4 Big 12 .5552
5 Big East .5550
6 A-10 .5529
7 WCC .5498
8 MWC .5494
9 MVC .5455
10 PAC 12 .5393
11 Horizon 05100
12 MAC .5056

[GoShockers89]

Fever, Aargh and others are right. Getting mad for calling this a must win is just silly. Is it POSSIBLE we could choke, subsequently rebound to beat Tulsa on the road, go 15-3 in the MVC (which we haven't done in 30 years) and win a road bracketbuster game at a top 50 team (we've also never done this) to sew up an at-large? Ummmm, sure, if you say so.

So while it is not LITERALLY IMPOSSIBLE to dance if we suck this weekend, it's also pretty darn unlikely. Saying we can afford to lose this weekend and still be fine for at-large consideration is like saying you don't need to save for retirement because you could win the lottery.

And I'm well aware of the point SB is bound to raise about the RPI not valuing one opponent more than another. This is true for the formula, but not for the committee. You absolutely need a flashy win or two to pass the eye test and get attention when you come from a conference that's been relegated to single bid status the last four years.

[1979Shocker]

I do have a VIP membership and these ratings were last updated this morning at 11:48 CST

I just looked again and now they show the numbers you gave.

[WuShock Reaper]

I meant to include this as well. Also, I'll go ahead and add the current RPI #'s (Warren Nolan) as a reference point. I didn't add them early today, because I thought it was a little early and I wanted you all to focus on the teams.

But as of today, the MVC is looking really good for the possible match-ups for the TV Games. Look at the RPI's for the first five games and notice the MVC is in four of them as of today. Unreal!!!!



TOP 15 GAMES AND POSSIBLE MVC MATCHUPS (only the top 13 make the ESPN TV games)

1. Saint Mary's College - West Coast (RPI #1) vs. Creighton - Missouri Valley (RPI #23)
2. Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley (RPI #10) vs. Ohio - Mid-American (RPI #16)
3. Long Beach State - Big West (RPI #24) vs. Cleveland State – Horizon (RPI #27)
4. Indiana State - Missouri Valley (RPI #33) vs. Davidson – Southern (RPI #28)
5. Oakland - Summit League (RPI #56) vs. Missouri State - Missouri Valley (RPI #34)
6. College of Charleston – Southern (RPI #60) vs. Coastal Carolina - Big South (RPI #42)
7. Campbell - Big South (RPI #57) vs. Murray State - Ohio Valley (RPI #45)
8. Valparaiso – Horizon (RPI #62) vs. Iona - Metro Atlantic (RPI #54)
9. Lamar – Southland (RPI #66) vs. New Mexico State – WAC (RPI #59)
10. UC Santa Barbara - Big West (RPI #69) vs. Northeastern – Colonial (RPI #63)
11. Portland State - Big Sky (RPI #85) vs. North Dakota State - Summit League (RPI #77)
12. Western Illinois - Summit League (RPI #87) vs. Kent State - Mid-American (RPI #80)
13. Wichita State - Missouri Valley (RPI #93) vs. Green Bay – Horizon (RPI #88)
14. Cal Poly - Big West (RPI #105) vs. Montana - Big Sky (RPI #89)
15. Eastern Washington - Big Sky (RPI #99) vs. McNeese State – Southland (RPI #92)

[ShockTalk]

That's interesting. I surely thought that would at least be a day old, with MSU tanking and CU getting a big road win. I don't understand how MSU is 18th after their loss last night. I guess it's still too early to get a good accurate look on these numbers.

SF, '72's numbers were the current ratings and it had MSU down to 38 with UNI and CU up to 10 and 22. 1979Shocker had the day old #s.

[WuShock Reaper]

A little more early ESPN Bracket Buster Selection Monday perspective:

2011 - on selection Monday last year, the 11 TV games had an RPI average of #81 and finished the season at #75.

2012 - the current top 11 TV games have an RPI average of #47.

[MadDog]

No reason to worry about a tv game. Many of the teams ahead of us have no shot of having better rpi's than we do because of their conference. Coastal Carolina, Campbell, Western Illinois... No way they can be top 100 by bracketbusters time.

[WuShock Reaper]

Number of teams from each of the conferences for the TV games last year 2011:

Colonial - 5 teams
Horizon - 3 teams
Missouri Valley - 3 teams
Metro Atlantic - 2 teams
America East - 1 team
Big Sky - 1 team
Big South - 1 team
Big West - 1 team
Mid-American - 1 team
Ohio Valley - 1 team
Southern - 1 team
WAC - 1 team
West Coast - 1 team