2012 Bracketbuster Game

[WuShock Reaper]

Here are my projections for the possible matchups for the 2012 Sears/ESPN Bracketbuster Game. WSU will want to play the best RPI team possible and I think it will be one of the Tier 1 (these are my personal rankings) teams that will be most likely as of today. Over the next three months I will be updating and eliminating/adding teams as we move to the January 30, 2012 pairing announcements.

Tier 1: Butler, VCU, George Mason, Iona, Kent State

Tier 2: Montana, Detroit, Ohio, Weber State, South Dakota State

Tier 3: Utah State, Cleveland State, Hofstra, Vermont, Saint Peter’s

Tier 4: Milwaukee, Northern Colorado, Coastal Carolina, Murray State, Miami (OH)

Tier 5: Austin Peay, Oral Roberts, Delaware, Ball State, Davidson

[The Mad Hatter]

http://www.espnmediazone3.com/us/2011/09/28/espn’s-sears-bracketbusters-features-largest-pool-in-history/

Here is the complete list of teams in the 2012 brackbuster games (divided by home and away).

[WuShock Reaper]

Here is my updated list of teams we would like to face for the 2012 ESPN Bracket Buster game. None of the Tier 1 teams made it out of the gate very well. Still plenty of time for the riders to get their horses in the race, but still no need to get the whip out just yet. However, the breakdown truck is fueled-up and heading out to pick up a few horses who have already come-up lame. RUN TRIGGER, RUN!!!

TIER 1
Ohio, Cleveland State, Davidson, Coastal Carolina, Murray State

TIER 2
Iona, New Mexico State, Northeastern, North Dakota State, Kent State

TIER 3
Montana, South Dakota State, Oral Roberts, Virginia Commonwealth, Loyola-Marymount

TIER 4
Albany, Weber State, Vermont, George Mason, Bowling Green

BREAKDOWN LANE
Butler, Detroit, Utah State, Hofstra, Saint Peter’s, Northern Colorado, Milwaukee, Miami-Ohio, Ball State, Austin Peay, Delaware

[The Mad Hatter]

TIER 1
Ohio (16), Cleveland State (27), Davidson (28), Coastal Carolina (42), Murray State (45)

TIER 2
Iona (54), New Mexico State (59), Northeastern (63), North Dakota State (77), Kent State (80)

TIER 3
Montana (89), South Dakota State (95), Oral Roberts (104), Virginia Commonwealth (107), Loyola-Marymount (115)

TIER 4
Albany (116), Weber State (121), Vermont (149), George Mason (187), Bowling Green (196)

BREAKDOWN LANE
Butler (173), Detroit (283), Utah State (191), Hofstra (238), Saint Peter’s (312), Northern Colorado (131), Milwaukee (165), Miami-Ohio (192), Ball State (157), Austin Peay (284), Delaware (291)

Just for information sake, I've added the current RPI's from Warren Nolan next to each team name. It is still early and I expect these numbers to change quite a bit as the season moves along, but worth tracking.

[Aargh]

The Shox are going to have to improve the product they put on the court to get even a Tier 2 opponent. I know it's early, but the Shox have looked like a team that deserves their current RPI. Here are the current RPI ratings for the top half of the Valley (Nolan)

UNI - 10
CU - 23
InSU - 33
MSU - 34
WSU - 93

The teams WSU has beaten this year are a combined 5-10. With UAB and USU tanking, there isn't much left on the schedule other than the Valley. WSU is going to have to tear up the Valley to get an upper-tier BB game.

Unless the Shox improve their game considerably, they're going to finish closer to the play-in round in St. Louis than to their predicted 2nd place finish. The way the Shox are playing now, they're likely to get post-season play, but the tournament looks like it will start with the letter "C".

BB is a long ways off and the Shox have a lot to prove on the court before the BB game will have any meaning.

[SubGod22]

It's not that bad. UNLV will help quite a bit. Tulsa will still be a quality opponent. Then we get to face those Valley teams above us in the RPI twice. That will only help where we stand and as long as we win, we'll look just fine come February and BB. I'm not worried.

[GoShockers89]

Totally accurate. With the way our non-con foes have performed, anyone who doesn't think the UNLV game is a must-win is delusional. The margin for error for December is zero and it's been that way since temple bent us over in puerto rico.

[1972Shocker]

Here are the current RPI's from realtimerpi.com for the Valley:

UNI - 10
CU - 22
INS - 32
MSU - 38
WSU - 86
DU - 144
ILS - 200
BU - 233
SIU - 250
EU - 264

Top 5 very close to the Nolan ratings. As @Aargh: said we are going to have to tear up the Valley. Absolutely can not afford any losses to the bottom half and need to lose no more than 3 games to the top half. That will be a very challenging task.

Looks like the UNLV game is becoming even more critical than we previously thought.

[1979Shocker]

Here are the current RPI's from realtimerpi.com for the Valley:

UNI - 10
CU - 22
INS - 32
MSU - 38
WSU - 86
DU - 144
ILS - 200
BU - 233
SIU - 250
EU - 264

That's interesting. I just looked and it's different than what you show above. I don't have the VIP so I think it only gets updated once a day.

From http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_mvc_Men.html

18 22 41 43 71 109 178 209 218 268

Missouri St Northern Iowa Creighton Indiana St Wichita St Drake Illinois St Bradley Southern Ill Evansville

[SB Shock]

The Shox are going to have to improve the product they put on the court to get even a Tier 2 opponent. I know it's early, but the Shox have looked like a team that deserves their current RPI. Here are the current RPI ratings for the top half of the Valley (Nolan)

UNI - 10
CU - 23
InSU - 33
MSU - 34
WSU - 93

WSU projected RPI is ~55 (going 19-9). If they perform better than that then of course their RPI will be lower (21-7 get them into mid-30's).

[WSUwatcher]

Looks like the panic from the usual suspects is starting early this year. Get out the meds, guys -- there's plenty of time left, and a lot of games. Putting the words "Shox" and "play-in" in even the same sentence is just plain goofy, and that's probably being unkind to the goofy community.

For perspective, here are a few other Warren Nolan RPI ranks as of today: Clemson 138th, Notre Dame 174th, Texas 236th, Cincinnati 265th. Yes, I know that all of those teams have more good RPI games ahead of them than WSU does. But the Shocker schedule is not without opportunity, and the Valley is not bereft of good teams either. The next month is important for the Shocks, no doubt. But they certainly have the wherewithal to make it a good month, at which point the poster panic will hopefully subside (at least for a few minutes).

[1972Shocker]

Looks like the panic from the usual suspects is starting early this year. Get out the meds, guys -- there's plenty of time left, and a lot of games. Putting the words "Shox" and "play-in" in even the same sentence is just plain goofy, and that's probably being unkind to the goofy community.

For perspective, here are a few other Warren Nolan RPI ranks as of today: Clemson 138th, Notre Dame 174th, Texas 236th, Cincinnati 265th. Yes, I know that all of those teams have more good RPI games ahead of them than WSU does. But the Shocker schedule is not without opportunity, and the Valley is not bereft of good teams either. The next month is important for the Shocks, no doubt. But they certainly have the wherewithal to make it a good month, at which point the poster panic will hopefully subside (at least for a few minutes).

Fair enough @WSUwatcher:, but outside of UNLV and doing very well in MVC play where do you see us building our RPI?

[1972Shocker]

That's interesting. I just looked and it's different than what you show above. I don't have the VIP so I think it only gets updated once a day.

From http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_mvc_Men.html

18 22 41 43 71 109 178 209 218 268

Missouri St Northern Iowa Creighton Indiana St Wichita St Drake Illinois St Bradley Southern Ill Evansville

I do have a VIP membership and these ratings were last updated this morning at 11:48 CST

[ShockerFever]

It's not that bad. UNLV will help quite a bit. Tulsa will still be a quality opponent. Then we get to face those Valley teams above us in the RPI twice. That will only help where we stand and as long as we win, we'll look just fine come February and BB. I'm not worried.

You aren't worried how the team has looked when they've played decent competition? The UNLV and Tulsa games will be telling. Close losses are not acceptable.

[ShockerFever]

Totally accurate. With the way our non-con foes have performed, anyone who doesn't think the UNLV game is a must-win is delusional. The margin for error for December is zero and it's been that way since temple bent us over in puerto rico.

100% accurate.