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WSU Versus Cincinnati Predictions and Pregame Discussions
"Wichita State vs. Cincinnati: Preview, prediction, TV schedule" - FanSided Sports
by Holden Walter-Warner
Posted: 03/03/18, 9:00am cst
"Wichita State looks to clinch a share of the American title in their inaugural season, while Cincinnati aims to take the whole thing.
TV Schedule: Sunday, March 4, 12:00 p.m. ET, CBS
Location: Charles Koch Arena, Wichita, Kansas
The Wichita State Shockers largely met expectations during their first season in the American. The one time they went above and beyond, it resulted in a signature victory at the very opponent they face in their regular season closer.
February 18th wasn’t all that long ago. Cincinnati lost on their home court that day, ending the nation’s longest home winning streak. Landry Shamet scored 19 points for the Shockers in the convincing road victory.
That win was part of a winning streak the Shockers have shown no signs of slowing. Wichita State has now won seven straight, although the last five have all been by seven points or less. In other words, opportunity to take them down is ripe.
There’s no better contender to stop the streak in the AAC than the Bearcats. Cincinnati already clinched a share of the conference crown, with losses to Wichita State and Houston serving as the only blemishes on their record.
The Bearcats operate one of the most lethal defenses in all of college basketball, surrendering just 57.2 points per game. In the game against the Shockers, however, they gave up 76, almost 20 more than their average.
Wichita State wants to play an offense-heavy game on Sunday. Cincinnati wants to play a defense-heavy game. The teams’ countering strengths are what makes their inevitable clash in the AAC Tournament Championship Game so exciting..
Here’s the statistic this game pivots on: the No. 11 Shockers are 2-1 against ranked teams this season; the No. 10 Bearcats, however, are 0-3 against them.
Cincinnati could be destined to learn a hard lesson about facing high-caliber opponents in the NCAA Tournament. They’ll be reminded of that possibility in Wichita this week.
"On Sunday, the Bearcats and Shockers will clash in an epic regular season showdown whose results will reverberate through the college basketball galaxy.
Since the schedule for the 2017-18 season was released, it seemed preordained that March 4 would be the biggest date of the season for the Cincinnati Bearcats. With American Athletic Conference title expectations on their shoulders, the Bearcats were always going to have to vanquish the Wichita State Shockers on that day, the last of the regular season.
Well that day is nearly here, and the No. 10 Bearcats and No. 11 Shockers have lived up to their respective sides of the bargains, meaning Sunday’s contest can decide the outright winner of the AAC crown. Sure, UC already clinched at least a share of the title with its win on Thursday, but this isn’t a kindergarten class. Sharing isn’t encouraged.
Who are the Wichita State Shockers?
As if you need a reminder. Wichita State is one only four teams to beat the Bearcats this season. The Shockers accomplished that feat roughly two weeks ago, knocking off the then No. 5 Bearcats 76-72 at BB&T Arena. Now the Bearcats will be out for revenge.
But the Shockers have plenty of motivation to win this game as well. At 24-5 overall and 14-3 in league play, they need to win to earn a share of the AAC title and to improve their own seeding in the NCAA Tournament. They have been doing plenty of good work to set up this epic regular season finale, winning their last seven games, including a 75-71 escape act in overtime against UCF on Thursday.
Shaquille Morris netted 19 points to go with nine rebounds to lead the way, as the Shockers dominated the interior to outlast the Knights. They had a 39-29 edge on the boards and an 20 percent advantage in offensive rebounding percentage. Landry Shamet added 14 points and six assists, but the Shockers were not at their offensive best, shooting a respectable 47 percent from the floor, but just 28.6 percent from three-point range. Considering they are the No. 5 team in the country in adjusted offense, that was a cold night indeed.
Back to Shamet. We all remember him, the NBA draft prospect and AAC Player of the Year contender who roasted the Bearcats earlier this season. The 6’4” guard scored 19 points to go with five assists as the Shockers ripped through UC’s normally potent defensive attack, connecting on 52.9 percent of their field goal tries. The biggest challenge on Sunday will be stopping the Shockers from getting back into such an offensive rhythm. A tall task to be sure.
How UC Can Win This One
Normally this section would be reserved for a short rundown of the Bearcats’ last game, but considering they breezed past Tulane, we can skip that and focus on this game, because at noon on Sunday the entire college basketball world should be watching.
Obviously playing better defense is the easiest solution. As noted earlier, Wichita State cut through the UC defense with ease, but the Bearcats are still ranked No. 2 in the country in adjusted defense. They need to limit offensive rebounds and not allow easy buckets, as the Shockers scored 22 points off of turnovers earlier this season. In addition, the guys on the inside need to make sure its a difficult proposition to bring it in the paint. They have the skills to do so, as they rank 10th in the country in blocked shots and second in opponent two-point field goal percentage.
Along with a team-wide improvement on defense, the Bearcats will need their star players to start quickly and keep it up. Jacob Evans, Gary Clark and Kyle Washington all had less than stellar showings in the first meeting. Evans had a pretty cold start and turned the ball over too much. Clark also struggled to find efficient offense and Washington produced six points in only 17 minutes. Jarron Cumberland (18 points) and Cane Broome (16 points) both went in, and that will be necessary again, but the Bearcats can’t just rely on their depth on Sunday. Their best players have to be at their, well, best.
Prediction Time!
This game is a gamblers’ nightmare, since the margin of difference between these programs is razor thin.
Even if people want to pretend that UC can’t beat good teams, its clear that the Bearcats can hang with the Shockers. After all, they played a brutally bad defensive game last time they played them and still lost by only four points. If they can bring increased energy on the defensive end, get Evans and Clark going early and help Broome keep cooking, they can reverse the previous outcome and leave Wichita with the AAC crown all to themselves.
Yeah, the more I'm thinking the more I'm thinking this is a loss. I'm not completely sold that Shamet will be 100 percent, having the same foot his stress fracture was located being rolled up on a few days back. Watching our game against Cincy, the more I'm convinced Cane Broome is going to destroy us, or at least give Cincy that extra 'oomph' they need to beat us. Austin Reeves couldn't hold his jock strap, when they were matched up. He's going to drive the lane every time since he's so damn fast and either get fouled or dish it out to a wide open shooter. We're going to have to shoot contested shots all day long and we're only going to win if we shoot above our season averages. I really hope I'm wrong.
On Sunday at The Roundhouse in Wichita, Mick Cronin and Gregg Marshall will face off in a high stakes chess match for the second time in two weeks.
This time
"On Sunday at The Roundhouse in Wichita, Mick Cronin and Gregg Marshall will face off in a high stakes chess match for the second time in two weeks. This time...
This time it’s for all the marbles. If Cincinnati wins, it will be outright regular season conference champions for the first time in Cronin’s tenure. If Wichita State wins, Marshall’s team will own the tiebreaker.
Marshall got the best of Cronin in the first match at BB&T Arena on February 18. He did so by gaining edges on both sides of the ball. However Cronin devised some keen moves to keep UC in that game.
Join me Inside The Film Room as we break down what happened at BB&T and look ahead to the regular season finale....
Potential Chess Moves on Sunday
What will Marshall do against Cincinnati’s dribble drive offense? Shamet, Reaves and Conner Frankamp all struggle to guard quicker players in space, but he can’t take all three out of the game or the offense will suffer. Marshall could counter by going zone, which he dialed up Thursday night at UCF. The zone could squeeze off UC driving lanes -- however it would make it tougher on the WSU bigs to get bodies on the Bearcats when shots are hoisted.
Regardless of which defense the Shockers play, can Cronin find a way to get the ball to Clark and Washington in their sweet spots? One thing that would help is if the Bearcats shoot the long ball better than they did on Feb 18 (7-23, 30%). That would create some extra space -- but ultimately it’s up to Clark and Washington to fight for better position and the UC coaching staff to design actions that put them in more advantageous spots on the floor.
How will Cronin choose to defend the perimeter when Washington is on the floor? Will he have Kyle show on those high ball screens until the guard can fight through, like he implemented vs. Tulsa? Or he could model his scheme after what Houston did in their win over the Shockers---which was to hard-hedge/blitz those screens and force Shamet to make a play out of that trap. (Shamet had an awful game in the loss at Houston.)
Test of Wills
If the game is close down the stretch, rebounding could determine the outcome in terms of securing a defensive board to finish the possession versus a second chance opportunity that could break someone’s back.
Wichita State ranks 3rd in the nation in Rebound Rate; Cincinnati ranks 6th. UC outrebounded the Shockers by 1 in the first meeting, but WSU held a 12-8 advantage in second chance points.
It doesn’t get any bigger than this in the regular season. Cronin vs. Marshall, Round 2. #10 vs. #11 for the American Conference championship on CBS.
Warn your significant other, your kids and your neighbors: From 12-2 on Sunday, they are likely to hear you yelling, cursing and cheering (and possibly throwing objects against the wall). If you’ve had heart problems or high blood pressure, please put your physician on notice.
Let's not forget that not only is Sunday a BIG GAME it is Senior Day for a very fine group of hard-working young men who put their team first. Thank you Shaq, thank you Rashard, thank you Zach, thank you Conner, thank you Rauno and thank you Darral.
...his family coming into town from Estonia:
"My mom and uncle are coming to the states for the first time in their life, so that will be pretty exciting for them."
A SENIOR MOMENT:
*WSU will honor its six seniors immediately after Sunday's game. The group has combined for 670 games and over 11,000 minutes of court time.
*The six-man class is WSU's largest in 42 years. The 1975-76 Shockers (who also had six seniors) won the MVC title and became just the third WSU team to qualify for NCAA Tournament play.
*WSU doesn't just have seniors, it has old seniors. Five of the six players have either redshirted or taken a prep year since graduating high school.
*Shaquille Morris is the last remaining link to WSU's 2013-14 undefeated team. He redshirted that year.
Wichita State's senior class (2014-18):
111-24 (.821)
56-2 record at Charles Koch Arena
37-8 record in true road games (2nd highest % in D-I)
3 MVC regular season titles (2015, 16, 17)
1 MVC Tournament title (2017)
3 NCAA Tournament bids (2015, 16, 17) & 5 wins
1 NCAA Sweet 16 (2015)
*Rashard Kelly has participated in 111 career victories -- tied for the second highest active total in college basketball. Shaquille Morris is tied for fifth on the list. with 108.
*Among active seniors who have appeared in at least 90 games, Rauno Nurger (99-18, .846), Morris (108-22, .831) and Kelly (111-24, .822) all rank in the top-5 nationally in winning percentage.
Active Career Wins Leaders (by participation, through March 1)
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