WSU history with OSU

[KC Shox]

Re: Boyd

Oh and KC, we need to find a way to bet on all fourth games between two teams, one of which has gone 3-0 against the other. I win if the 3-0 team goes to 4-0; you win if they don't. Let me just say that Bill James and his sabermetric buddies would love to have a piece of my side of that bet, because if we do it on enough games for high enough stakes, eventually I'm going to end up owning your house.

LOL, I might take you up on that offer, however, the circumstances revolving around this bet and the likeliehood of it happening during a season seems to be small. It would have to be a bet with two, say Top 50 teams or evenly matched teams, to make it fair.

Again, I'm just saying before we start looking ahead like OSU fans already are toward the Tallahassee regional with FSU, we might want to win the first game with TCU. They'll be starting a pitcher who did not start against us the first time around we saw them. When we did see him in relief, he threw 4.2 innings of scoreless ball against us and limited us to 2 hits.

Does that change your mind about the bet?

[martymoose]

If you're looking at odds on this regional, I'd put them as follows:

54% - OSU
44% - WSU
2% - TCU
0% - WKU

[GoShockers89]

I would put it more like 50/35/13/2

[SpanglerFan316]

Or 0/100/0/0 ? :whistle: :lol:
;-)

[SHOCKvalue]

I'd say TCU definitely has a greater than 2% probability of getting out of the regional.

[ShockerFever]

There's a lot of variables going into the odds of winning this regional..

But I guess I'll play too..

OSU 60%
WSU 20%
TCU 19%
WKU 1%

[SHOCKvalue]

OSU 44%
WSU 34%
TCU 20%
WKU 2%

My take...

[WSUwatcher]

The bet

Not really, KC, because my point was a general one: if you're already 3-0 against someone in a given season, it probably isn't an accident, which means you should probably be favored to make it 4-0. Obviously, if you keep playing the same team time after after time, you have to lose one eventually -- that's just the nature of baseball. But as we've seen from some of WSU's Valley matchups, eventually doesn't have to come soon, much less in the same season.

Having said that, though, you clearly do have a point about overconfidence and assuming the win in this specific game against TCU. Lockwood is obviously their best pitcher, and he looks to be very good indeed. On the other hand, we know what the Shocks did against Shawn Joy his first and second times around, too. So who knows?

One thing that does reassure me is that the looking ahead that's taking place on here isn't being done by anyone who has the slightest impact on the outcome of the game; another is that the great historic rivalry between WSU and OSU has first hand meaning to very few of the Shocker players, which makes it less likely that they'll be looking ahead as we are. Fans may fantasize and root, but players play -- and I think there's every reason to believe that the players, the ones who really matter, will be in the right frame of mind.

[shockfan89]

Here are the calculated probilities (regional/super/CWS):

                           W-L   RPI  ISR   Probs

Oklahoma State            40-16   13   14  51/27/ 4
Wichita State             41-15   25   35  18/ 6/ 0
Texas Christian           43-17   31   19  28/12/ 1
Western Kentucky          33-25   79   88   3/ 0/ 0

This why they play the game. Both OSU and TCU and much better probability of winning. Oh well, so much for the numbers...

[Rosewood]

Here are the calculated probilities (regional/super/CWS):

                           W-L   RPI  ISR   Probs

Oklahoma State            40-16   13   14  51/27/ 4
Wichita State             41-15   25   35  18/ 6/ 0
Texas Christian           43-17   31   19  28/12/ 1
Western Kentucky          33-25   79   88   3/ 0/ 0

This why they play the game. Both OSU and TCU and much better probability of winning. Oh well, so much for the numbers...

I have a number for you: 31

[newshock1234]

18 percent chance huh, i wonder what the odds were for us to sweep through the regional

[SHOCKvalue]

Here are the calculated probilities (regional/super/CWS):

                           W-L   RPI  ISR   Probs

Oklahoma State            40-16   13   14  51/27/ 4
Wichita State             41-15   25   35  18/ 6/ 0
Texas Christian           43-17   31   19  28/12/ 1
Western Kentucky          33-25   79   88   3/ 0/ 0

This why they play the game. Both OSU and TCU and much better probability of winning. Oh well, so much for the numbers...

Wonder if Boyd will have us at 6% in the SR as well. :lol: