2017 Predictions

[Play Angry]

We are 1 month away from the first game.

What do you expect/hope to see from the team this season? Specifics are encouraged in lieu of platitudes.

[Play Angry]

I really, really like Coach Steele and am pulling for him to find success with our pitching staff (where he certainly has his work cut out for him). Last season's staff ERA finished at 5.97 (!!!) - if he can find a way to work that back into the 4.xxs, we would be very competitive IMO. Willie, Reagan and Zach must stay healthy and probably each need to have big senior seasons for those stars to align.

On offense, there is cause for optimism with our young lineup - last year we hit .282 as a team, and given the returning talent I would anticipate this to climb to the .290-.300 range. The marginal improvement in run production won't make a big impact if our staff continues to discharge earned runs at a clip of ~6 per game as noted above. However, if Steele can achieve just a portion of the improvement he projected in the Spring, then our hitters' numbers should be serviceable if not pretty good.

Defense (.967 fielding % last year, but this was not indicative of many of the hits credited to the opposition as a result of misplays and mental lapses) seems likely to remain a challenge and point of frequent frustration, although I suppose there is some hope that this too will improve with experience among our position players.

After opening with a fairly typical soft slate for frozen tundra games in February, we will have one of the most intense stretches in memory during the regular season beginning March 3 and running through March 28:

@ La Tech x 3
@ OU x 1
@ LSU x 3
vs. Northern Colorado x 2
@ Cal Poly x 3
@ ORU x 1
vs. Sacramento State x 1
vs. Texas Tech x 3
@ OSU x 1

That gauntlet will tell us very early whether any real progress has been achieved. Specific W/L predictions with this team are difficult but I will go with 31-25, which I feel is probably on the optimistic end (especially given our OOC SoS).

Last year was very disappointing and, although Butler was given additional time to right the ship, there has to be heat to perform this season. Brent has departed and this staff is entirely his own - no more excuses.

[shockfan89_]

I agree with everything you stated above.

Coach Steele appears to be a great hire but not sure he can achieve the immediate results he boldly stated in Spring.

Offensively there is optimism but we need to drastically reduce our strike out numbers to be consistent. However, this may be a coaching philosophy as HCTB likes the long ball and seems to encourage guys to swing for the fences. Our summer and fall strikeout numbers do not give me much hope that this has been addressed.

I hope to see the improvement you mentioned on the defensive side but realistically our fielding % might go down if we show only marginal improvement and start getting to balls that we didn't get to last season. On a positive note, more errors could benefit our ERA.

I think 31-25 would be a great finish for this team. The sad part is that will be our best record under HCTB and put us at 109-123 over his four seasons. According to Collegiate Baseball vote totals we are picked to finish 5th in an MVC that continues to decline. Regardless of our final record, I think we need to finish in the top 3 of the MVC and win the MVC Tournament to continue the HCTB era. Otherwise the Athletic Department might as well issue a public statement that we have given up on WSU baseball and have no expectation of success going forward.

[WheatShock]

The strikeouts and swing for the fences approach bothers me a bit. Most of the really good teams we had under Gene put the ball in play and ran like hell. A punchout gives you 0 chance to get on base while if you put the ball in play you always have a chance to get on base. Homers will come when they come, trying to hit homers is a recipe for a low BA.

I wanted Butler gone last year. I think we need to win the MVC or he's dead to me.

[1972Shocker]

@PlayAngry: I think you summarized things very well.

[Cdizzle]

I predict that I will be ready to move on from this coaching staff before, during, and after the season.

[THam]

The K% for the team last year was 18.9%, 18.2% for returners, higher than the NCAA average of 17.6% but not glaringly so, especially considering our top 50 Strength of Schedule. On an individual basis, we have 3 guys who need to have made cutting down their strikeouts a priority over the summer and fall. Dayton Dugas in particular. He leads returners with a 28.0% rate but is also the top returner in BABIP, hitting .421 on ball he puts in play, so getting his K% down around the NCAA average should boost his average into the .340+ range and may be the key to him living up to his hype coming out of high school. Troutwine and Young are the other two that have the most to gain from cutting down on Ks.

K% for Returners
Vickers - 11.4%
Debacker - 12.2%
Jenista - 12.9%
Bohm - 13.1%
Ritter - 16.1%
Young - 22.6%
Boyer - 25% (only 16 plate appearances)
Troutwine - 25.9%
Dugas - 28.0%

[shockfan89_]

THam - I know the K% is widely used and I think it has some merit but I am OLD school so I look at a much more simple stat. What percentage of your outs came from Ks. As WheatShock stated, an SO is a wasted at bat. Nothing good ever comes from it except for maybe an occasional stolen base. IMHO the numbers the last 2 years must go down if we expect to win 30 games this season and I think it's a big reason we were 47-70 over the past two years. Again, IMHO, it's much harder to win consistently with that many unproductive outs. Interested to hear your thoughts!

2016 - 28.2% of outs via SO (21-37)
2015 - 30.2% of outs via SO (26-33)
2014 - 24.9% of outs via SO (31-28)
2013 - 24.6% of outs via SO (39-28)

[Cdizzle]

But it was so fun and worth it because of all the home runs we were hitting!!!!

[THam]

[QUOTE]THam - I know the K% is widely used and I think it has some merit but I am OLD school so I look at a much more simple stat. What percentage of your outs came from Ks. As WheatShock stated, an SO is a wasted at bat. Nothing good ever comes from it except for maybe an occasional stolen base. IMHO the numbers the last 2 years must go down if we expect to win 30 games this season and I think it's a big reason we were 47-70 over the past two years. Again, IMHO, it's much harder to win consistently with that many unproductive outs. Interested to hear your thoughts!

2016 - 28.2% of outs via SO (21-37)
2015 - 30.2% of outs via SO (26-33)
2014 - 24.9% of outs via SO (31-28)
2013 - 24.6% of outs via SO (39-28)/QUOTE]

Strikeouts as a % of outs as opposed to as a % of plate appearances would seem to penalize a team/player for having productive at-bats. As an example, a team that struck out 9 times in 9 full innings in two consecutive games would have a pretty terrible 33% strikeout to out ratio in both games. But if in the first game they had 6 productive plate appearances (H, BB, HBP, Sac Fly or Sac Bunt) their K% is 27.2% for that game. If the next day they come out and have 15 productive PAs, Their K% is 20.9%. 9 strikeouts in 43 plate appearances is always going to be preferable than 9 strikeouts in 33 plate appearances. If they come out the next game and strikeout 7 times in 27 outs and have 4 productive plate appearances (25.9% SO/Outs, 23.3% K%), was that really a better performance in regards to not striking out than in game 2?

[ShockerFever]

The fan apathy that has set in really shows how far the program has fallen. I did not attend ONE game last year for the first time in my life. And judging by photos/highlights/box scores, I think many followed suit.

I'm concerned with how much a team like this can improve, especially given the sketchiness and history of the current coach at other programs. You can only improve so much with the talent that is available. Steele seems like a really good get but as already been mentioned, how quick can a guy turn around a pitching staff? I'm guess more than 1 year.

The brutal OOC will not contribute to the W totals. I see a bunch of losses piling up in March and I'm thinking we'll struggle to be .400 by the time the end of the month rolls around. By then, all of our patience might have already run out.

A Top 3 finish in the Valley and Valley tournament championship game appearance is the minimum requirements for year FOUR of this regime. Otherwise, pack it up, and ship it out.

[shockfan89_]

A Top 3 finish in the Valley and Valley tournament championship game appearance is the minimum requirements for year FOUR of this regime. Otherwise, pack it up, and ship it out.

The problem is that really isn't even good enough! We said the same thing last year and finished 21-37 with the most losses of any team in our conference!!! We have already adjusted our expectations for what we think is achievable. The really sad part is that even if we don't achieve a top 3 finish in the regular season and win the MVC Tournament in year FOUR, the AD probably won't pull the trigger. That equates to more fan apathy and sets a new, even lower, expectation for what is acceptable...

[ShockerFever]

I agree that the expectations are embarrassingly low right now. It should never be adjusted to that. I expect this program to be a perennial NCAA team with legit shots at CWS every 5 years or so.

I personally think a major blunder was made in not getting Hooper when we had the chance to get him. That might really cost this program even more down the road.

[Cdizzle]

I think Hooper is still available as an option. But the clock may be ticking.

[THam]

There's a lot of different ways a rebuild can go in the first three years, but by year 4 those paths should all pretty much be converging and arriving at or near its goal. The last 3 years have been so disappointing, that I'm willing to lower my expectations for year 4 from what they were when Butler was hired, but not for year 5. So for me, I don't have a set bar for this team to clear, but I want to feel pretty confident at the end of this year that the 2018 team is going to be a super-regional contender. That's probably going to mean that:

1. The solid group of young hitters continues to develop and some newcomers show they've got bats to be excited about as well.

2. With a year under their belt and everyone hopefully knowing and being more comfortable at their position, the defense needs to be sharper. The fielding % wasn't horrible, but there were too many passed balls, too many dumb throws, too many extra bases allowed, too few double plays turned, too much thinking during the play and not enough before it, etc.

3. A young core of pitchers needs to emerge that gives as much reason for optimism as the freshman hitters did last year. How soon this core emerges will most likely determine how successful this season is. If it doesn't emerge at all, I have a hard time seeing a reason to expect the next couple of years to be any better than the last couple, and will probably be as big of a "Fire Butler" guy as anyone else.

Lastly, the non-conference schedule is going to be tough so a weak overall record might not mean total failure, but at worst this team needs to be playing Valley-killing ball by the time the conference season starts. We don't have to win it all, but I can't stomach anymore lost series to the Evansvilles and Illinois States of the world.