Fire Todd Butler

[ShockerFever]

Crickets.

Anybody left to defend the guy?

Crickets.

[ShockerFever]

This is so sad.

One person posts a baseless opinion and everyone jumps on it like they are facts.

I bet it doesn't take 15 seconds to google this kid and Wichita State and find 5 articles talking about Coach Butler recruiting him.

This isn't 1995. It sure as heck isn't basketball where kids who get full athletic scholarships commit and decommit like crazy. This is a different world. These kids are getting fractional scholarships to play baseball. They have to find the programs they want to major in and the grants/scholarships to pay for the gaps.

Do a little research. See how many ot the top 500 HS baseball players in Class or 2018 have not already committed to a program. Keep in mind most of these will be drafted, and only end up on campus if spot money not high enough.

Now search 2019. Then 2020. That is where you will start to see a large number of high level players. If we "Fire Todd Butler", it is 2021 before we start to see an impact.

AAC will definitey help by putting us into North Carolina, Louisiana, Texas, Tennessee, etc. Hitting coach needs replaced yesterday. Sign Mike Steele if we can convince him to stay. Remember how many injuries to pitching staff we faced.

Y'all are becoming a sad bunch. Gonna bail again before you break out your rusted pitchforks.

Just had to go back through this thing for some laughs.

Came across the major LOLer.

[XManCometh]

If you can't even make a Regional with two potential first round picks and two other first team All-AAC performers, you don't deserve to have a job anymore.

I remember back when they fired Gene and a majority of the people on here were defending it, saying just making it to a regional and winning 40 games "wasn't enough".Now we're here where we can't even win 40% of our conference games.

ADES really sent this program down the tubes with this hire and with how he handled the Gene situation.

If Butler isn't gone after this year, regardless of how the season ends up, then the school is doing a huge disservice to us all.

[Play Angry]

I would imagine the 2013 team's 5-20 record vs. Top 100 teams (including 0-7 vs. Top 50) and final RPI of 103 constituted the part that "wasn't enough" rather than the 39 wins and automatic bid that season.

Not an argument in favor or against HCTB, just keeping revisionism to a minimum.

[SB Shock]

I would imagine the 2013 team's 5-20 record vs. Top 100 teams (including 0-7 vs. Top 50) and final RPI of 103 constituted the part that "wasn't enough" rather than the 39 wins and automatic bid that season.

Not an argument in favor or against HCTB, just keeping revisionism to a minimum.

WSU history since it last CWS appearance.

1996 - 2 (Regional Host, CWS)
1997 - 22 (NCAA)
1998 - 6 (Regional Host)
1999 - 7 (Regional Host)
2000 - 60 (NCAA)
2001 - 53
2002 - 17 (Regional Host)
2003 - 70 (NCAA)
2004 - 37 (NCAA)
2005 - 36 (NCAA) -- Gene leaves for a Day to become OU coach
2006 - 45 (NCAA)
2007 - 20 (SUPER Host)
2008 - 25 (SUPER)
2009 - 93 (NCAA)
2010 - 56
2011 - 71
2012 - 44
2013 - 103 (NCAA)

Butler Regime

2014 - 78
2015 - 109
2016 - 183
2017 - 146
2018 - 51 ??

It been a decade since this program has been relevent.

WSU had some very good RPI and some very crappy RPI (where they probably wouldn't have got an at-large except for the MVC sucking).

It is amazing how the WSU program dropped off significantly after having success with back to back SUPER REGIONAL appearances. You would think it might draw even more talent to the program.

2010 - 2 week period in March were WSU Lost of 6 out 7 non-conference opponents doomed their at-large chances in otherwise solid season
2011 - WSU was an enigma, was 5-3 vs Top 50, but was 20-23 versus 51-200.
2012 - Struggled in non-conference (lost 4 out 5 vs Hawaii, lost LBS series, went 0-3 in opening tournament in San Marcos), lost conference series with EU, ISUB, SWOMO). Season ended with 2 & Q in MVC tourny
2013 - Terrible MVC (and finished 2nd), 0-7 vs Top 50, Weak Non-Conf and struggled to win games, got hot in MVC tourny to get NCAA.

Butler record just sits out their like a nail on pool deck....

[Play Angry]

Great data, thanks for posting SB.

[ShockTalk]

Couple of points:

1) 2009 NCAA was also a "backdoor" entry winning the conference tourney with a non at-large team.

2) By 2009 the heart of the previous teams were all gone. We still had a few good offensive players and pitching was pretty good, just not as deep. This all correlated with players Gene had before "OU", and players recruited to WSU prior to "OU" for the coming year, were now all gone.

3) The coaching staff was not getting the level and number of top players after "OU" that they were getting before.

4) The double whammy was that it was said by some other coaches on the recruiting trail that they did not see our staff nearly as much, if at all, like they use to.

IMO, getting the same level and number of quality players after leaving for "OU" then coming back to WSU was going to be more difficult and take a lot more effort yet, there was said to be an appearance that less time and effort may have been the case. Yet, all this time, he and the staff was earning as much or more than they had prior to "OU".

[ShockerFever]

Butler Regime

2014 - 78
2015 - 109
2016 - 183
2017 - 146
2018 - 51 ??

How could ANYONE defend that?

[Cdizzle]

An aside,

I think a very significant issue that gets ignored in people's effort to make the OU thing an inflection point is ignoring the wild west that was MLB signing bonuses in that era; which has since been ended. There was some tremendous talent committed to and/or on campus at WSU, recruited during that period, that left for MLB signing bonuses in lower rounds that simply cannot happen now.

The above is not a definitive singular reason for the decline of the program in that time frame, but it is also often completely ignored.

...now back to the regularly scheduled arguing.

[ABC]

An aside,

I think a very significant issue that gets ignored in people's effort to make the OU thing an inflection point is ignoring the wild west that was MLB signing bonuses in that era; which has since been ended. There was some tremendous talent committed to and/or on campus at WSU, recruited during that period, that left for MLB signing bonuses in lower rounds that simply cannot happen now.

The above is not a definitive singular reason for the decline of the program in that time frame, but it is also often completely ignored.

...now back to the regularly scheduled arguing.

I understand that, but everyone program has that issue. Tell me how this fact has impacted WSU in a more profound way than other programs.

[Cdizzle]

Very fair point, ABC. I have some additional thoughts on this I'll try to post tomorrow when I can get names and numbers right. I think there were some factors that made the WSU program susceptible to that effect, but some of those factors are more in the excuse column than others, and none eliminate the validity of your point. Also keep in mind you're actually getting at part of my point: WSU didn't keep up because of changes in the game, not because somebody put on a red jersey for a couple minutes. That doesn't change the end result, but does change the narrative.

[ShockTalk]

Memory is very foggy on this by now, but I believe there was at least one commitment, that happened to be local (easy to recruit in your backyard), that many figured would not ever wear a Shocker jersey.

Wasn't there also a current player(s) that took advantage of those later round bonuses? Lack of good depth hurt.

[ArtVandalay]

At the beginning of this year, it seemed generally understood that this season would be good and that we would take a step back next year when we would lose Bohm, Jenista and the seniors, yet this season has been a huge disappointment.

What does next year hold? Is there any reason to expect us to be better? Butler would be in his last year of his contact. Can we possibly extend him after this season of vast disappointment? If you make a move, it has to be after this season, right?

[ABC]

I think that Trevor Rosenthal, the former closer for the Cardinals that was an absolute flame-thrower (100 mph) went pro after he committed to WSU. He was at Cowley County. BUT we aint' the only program with that problem.

[Play Angry]

Pete Kozma (1st round) and Derek Norris (4th round) were the biggest blows to the rebuild, both in the 2007 draft. Kozma was slotted from the beginning at a level where the staff should have never counted on him to come, Derek went much higher than expected during the prior winter and was a justifiable surprise. As Cdizzle noted there were others who left a year earlier than would typically play out now (Dusty Coleman), but some of those shenanigans involved crap MLB teams playing games with draft slots to try to maximize value - now, some of those same players would likely be taken in their appropriate position for the $$$$ (earlier round) and would leave anyway, but it's impossible to know for sure.

[Play Angry]

On the flipside, when the trap door opened under Mike Pelfrey's draft slot between April and June of 2002, we received a major, major unexpected boost when he was pretty much forced to attend college. Without Mike, we don't make the 2003 regional and may have missed in 2005 as well. There were some breaks in our favor back then.

[Play Angry]

1. Butler has 2 more years remaining on his contract, not 1. If he had 1, the debate would be much simpler since financials wouldn't be much of a factor.

2. The program is unquestionably not where it needs to be from a performance standpoint, but I have a hard time characterizing this particular season as a "huge disappointment." Our RPI last season was 146; as of this evening, it is 49. For most (myself included), this falls short of the bar since it is on the wrong side of the at-large cut line, but I am going to make an educated guess that it represents one of the 3 biggest year over year improvements in the NCAA for this season. If you were expecting, rather than hoping as we all were, for something significantly better, then I'm glad you awoke from that coma but we've sucked hard for the preceding couple seasons with a lot of this same roster. Now, was the finish to this regular season disappointing after the incredible OOC record we put together? Unquestionably.

3. To play devil's advocate - the trendline for the first 3 years of the Butler era was an unmitigated disaster with underlying stats to match. 2017 saw a notable uptick in pitching under Steele, while hitting continued to flatline under Walker. 2018 saw another notable uptick in pitching under Steele, and hitting improved significantly under Esposito. The direction arrow under the current assistants is pointed in the right direction without question - the debate would be whether, if given another year, Steele can continue to achieve incremental improvement with most of the staff returning next season (seems likely) and whether Esposito can avoid backsliding following the loss of Bohm, Jenista and Troutwine (much bigger question mark).

I would guess that next year's offense would see a minor dropoff but probably not a severe one - Vickers has been mediocre and likely gets replaced above current production at the plate (his batting average is okay but OPS is pretty terrible) and in the field (just yikes at the unexpected regression there); Troutwine has been tremendous but Croft has efficient numbers at the plate in a limited sample size, both are not exactly Benito Santiago with the glove; Jenista has had a nice season but not the kind that measures up to his projected draft slot, likely gets replaced at slightly below current production at 1B/OF; and finally Bohm...this is probably the only candidate where replacement value will lag in a major way. He has been awesome at the plate but very poor in the field, but the offense has been so good that it still tilts hard positive and would be difficult to come close to replacing. So, the big question would be whether the balance of the returning starters can improve enough to offset the loss of Bohm - probably not would be my guess, but Esposito did coax an 8% improvement in batting average and a much bigger jump for OPS with pretty much the same roster as last year, so I wouldn't rule it out completely.

4. Based on overall record spanning 5 seasons, does Butler deserve an extension? Of course not. Based on the trendline of the last 2 seasons and the financial hurdles associated with an early termination, does it make sense for him (and the promising assistants) to come back for another season to see if there is follow-through on this season's improvement with a token 1 year extension while including a scheduled decrease in the buyout to 1 year's salary at the end of next season? I dunno, ADDB will decide. I don't think the latter option is as far-fetched as most seem to think, but we'll see shortly. I also don't think going that route makes ADDB a traitor or a farce or whatever other label is being tossed around, unless of course someone is willing to stroke that fat check themselves required to make the change.

5. If we do make a change after the end of this season, I hope our fans remember where Eck Stadium is located and actually go see a few games, even if Hoop (or whoever the next skipper is) fails to whoop major ass in the first 2 years. Very few went to the games after 2010 under Gene and even fewer made it out to the park now - if you want a top tier program, please give something better than fair weather support like we've seen for most of the last 10 years. HCTB's poorly-negotiated contract (from WSU's standpoint) falls on fADES and our university's counsel, and there was simply was no way to buy it out at the Marianas Trench stage of the nosedive in 2016; the fact that buying out the much lower $680,000 amount required now is such a monumental issue falls on fan apathy in general. Baseball was self-sustaining for a couple decades (even profitable in many years) but has become another welfare queen of our athletic department since 2010 - expecting Gregg's coffers to fund the turnover whole cloth while we run on fumes during the AAC transition is too much to ask. The few remaining folks who give a damn about baseball need to make their presence felt, even if it is limited (for now) to contacting the athletic department and offering a pledge (no matter the amount) to fund their desired result.

Most of this can wait until the offseason, which may not be far off. Let's give our guys the support they deserve this week in Clearwater.

Go Shocks!

[C0|dB|00ded]

"but I am going to make an educated guess that it represents one of the 3 biggest year over year improvements in the NCAA for this season."

That ain't saying much...

I can totally **** the bed, then the following night do nothing at all and that's a dramatic night-over-night improvement.


T


...:cool:

[ShockerFever]

I also don't think going that route makes ADDB a traitor or a farce or whatever other label is being tossed around, unless of course someone is willing to stroke that fat check themselves required to make the change.

I didn't force Boatright to say what he said. HE is the one that said LAST year that finances weren't a factor in retaining Butler in 2017. It's now 2018. 5 years, 0 NCAA appearances, bottom conference finishes, dismal crowds, late season regression... ZERO excuses. If finances weren't a factor last year, they certainly won't be a factor this year. You've tried to play the middle ground in your well-thought-out post (which I give you credit for), but there is no justification for retaining Butler for a 6th year with absolutely NO results, and mediocrity AT BEST his entire coaching career. Expecting anything different in year 6 is simply giving false hope.

I, for one, have attended zero games the last two years (first time I've ever missed any games in a single year) and will not attend another one under a Butler-coached regime. He's had his time, his excuse train has tried up. It's over. I WILL attend games automatically under a new coach, specifically Kevin Hooper, regardless of year 1 or 2 results. That is a FACT.

[OregonShocker]

I believe the decision re: this year or next hinges on the liklihood of getting a top replacement. If this is the year to get someone else, he's gone. If this ISN'T the year, wait til next and get who we want/need.
Well, that's the strategy of a good AD; whether that's what will happen here is still in doubt.

[WuDrWu]

PlayAngry said a lot very nicely.


Let me add.......there was basically NO recruiting going on the last 5-10 years of HCGS. HCTB was handed an empty bag of talent and while we all assumed keeping Brent would ease the transition, it did more harm than good. As WuShock16 often reminds me, it’s not about the Xs & Os it’s about the Jimmys and Joes. We took some flyers and Bohm and Jenista paid off. We’re finally getting some pitching. Recruiting is 2-4 years out. It takes time.

[C0|dB|00ded]

"it’s not about the Xs & Os it’s about the Jimmys and Joes."

I don't believe that fully encapsulates the reality of amateur sports. This will be clearly evident after the Penny Experiment.

You need 'em both. In fact, you need those two qualities as well as a strong proficiency in head shrinking. You need all three to create sustainable success.

People will point to Calipari, but he's no slouch as a coach, and I bet he has an entire wing of the local psychiatry clinic consulting for him as well as a dozen nannies.


T


...:cool:

[Play Angry]

I didn't force Boatright to say what he said. HE is the one that said LAST year that finances weren't a factor in retaining Butler in 2017. It's now 2018. 5 years, 0 NCAA appearances, bottom conference finishes, dismal crowds, late season regression... ZERO excuses. If finances weren't a factor last year, they certainly won't be a factor this year.

Eh, let's be real on this - ADDB's statement was dumb, but taking it as gospel is probably just as dumb. After 4 years the fanbase was ready for a change, many are saying to dump the coach but doubt we can afford to do it, and, in reality, we can't afford to do it - as AD, there are three choices: (1) make a milquetoast statement saying that the coach will return next season with little context (this probably would have been best); (2) shoot your coach in the head, along with recruiting for the next couple years, then and there by saying you'd love to fire the bastard but can't scrape the nickels together (nobody has done this in the history of ever); or (3) come out aggressively supporting the coach while saying you absolutely can afford to make a change (we couldn't) but this is our guy. ADDB went with option 3 and that really isn't surprising in light of his "take on all comers" personality (the same trait that made the difference in us getting into the AAC IMO). ADs and school prezs support coaches until the day the axe drops.

I, for one, have attended zero games the last two years (first time I've ever missed any games in a single year) and will not attend another one under a Butler-coached regime. He's had his time, his excuse train has tried up. It's over. I WILL attend games automatically under a new coach, specifically Kevin Hooper, regardless of year 1 or 2 results. That is a FACT.

That's great - give ADDB a shout letting him know and pledge some bucks to the transition, whatever makes sense for your financial situation. We have an awful, awful lot of fans though who attended a game "every year" going back decades until recently, but those same fans also only made it out to watch us maybe twice a season for games against KU/KSU/OSU once late April arrived and the highs were in the 70s and 80s going back to about 2009. I know of a handful on this board and can probably find some humorous posts to back it up from 7 or 8 years ago if I want to waste 5 minutes.