WSU at USF - Closing Out the Season

[1972Shocker]

After the UCF series I posted the following:

I do think it is important that the team does start playing better and winning a few games heading into next season. Not expecting any kind of a major win streak. I think going 6-6 over our remaining 12 AAC games is possible. Although the odds are probably against that happening. I don't expect any wins in the final 3 mid-week games.

And then maybe getting 1 win in the AAC Tournament.

That would give the Shocks 20 wins on the season. Somehow that just sound less disastrous than a win total in the teens.

The Shocks are closing out a little head of my schedule as they hit 20 wins with the unexpected bashing of OU last night and still have a series remaining at USF in the regular season. Since the UCF series the Shocks are 7-5 (6-3 in AAC play and 1-2 in Big XII games).

USF is in last place in the AAC 2 games behind the Shockers but they have a better overall record than the Shockers do at 26-25. The Shocks are in 6th place. 2 games behind Tulane and Cincy who are tied for 4th at 10-11 and 1 game in front of 7th place Memphis.

Tulane finishes up at home against Memphis so the Shocks are not likely to catch the Green Wave.

Cininnati OTOH finishes up at UCF who is tied for 2nd with Houston. The only way the Shock catch Cincy is to win at least 2 of 3 from USF and have UCF sweep Cincy. Possible but probably not very likely to happen. A tie with Cincy wouldn't change much as Cincy owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with Cincy. The Shocks could pass Cincy for 5th place if both the Shocks and UCF sweep these final regular season series. However, if avoiding ECU early in the AAC Tournament is the goal beiing the 6th seed may actaully be a getter result. Maybe @WuDrWu can weigh in on that to see if he agrees. If that is the case, the best scenario for the Shocks would ge for Cincy to go 1-2 against UCF and for the Shocks to sweep USF.
In my initial post about the Shocks getting to 20 wins this season that included going 2-1 against USF and winning 1 game in the tournament.

If the Shocks can take 2 of 3 at South Florida and play reasonably well in doing so I think the Shockers have a chance to make some noice in the AAC Tournament. It will be imperative that they win their 1st game of the tournament on Tuesday to avoid playing an elimination game on Wednesday and for Kaminska, Bye, Tolle, Favors, Minor and Holden to pitch well and for the improved hitting to continue.

[1972Shocker]

In terms of individual accolades I think Brock Rodden has a pretty strong case to be a 1st team All-AAC selection.

In all games he is 12th in the AAC in batting average at .321, 2nd in home runs with 14 and 2nd in total bases with 120 and that doesn't include yesterdays OU game where he raised those numers to .327, 15 home runs and 125 total bases.

However, in AAC games only he has really shined with a league leading .392 batting average, 2nd in slugging %, tied for 5th in on base %, tied for 1st in hits, tied for 3rd in runs scored, 3rd in total bases.

Chuck Ingram has had a good conference season as well. I could see Chuck getting 2nd team All-AAC honors.

Payton Tolle actually has a .409 batting averate in AAC play but only has 22 at bats. Jordan Rogers is hitting .343 in AAC games but did not play a lot earlier in the season.

Cameron Bye has a shot at the 2nd team as well I think as perhaps Cameron Holden does as well.

[WuDrWu]

As usual 1972Shocker your analysis is spot on.

TBH, after watching these guys last night (which I did not expect at all) I think by far the most important thing for this team is to continue to be aggressive and play well. As a fan, cautious optimism.

USF lost their best pitcher early in the season (Jack Jasiak) and I assume he's out for the year given he hasn't been seen since March. Like us, USF has underachieved this season. They are largely the same team that went to a Super Regional last year and they are plenty dangerous, especially vs a team that I'm sure hasn't forgotten what it's like to lose 16 of 17.

That being said, if we go to Tampa and win all 3 and play well, I don't really care who we get at that point. It's not rocket surgery to figure out ECU is the class of the league, the best coached club, the most talented team etc etc. The AAC Tourney title is probably going through them anyway, so whatever. Frankly, some really unusual outcomes would have to occur for WSU to finish 5, more so 4. I thought staying away from ECU was the most important thing (probably still is) but now I just want these guys to continue to play well, play with confidence and get better. Let the seeding fall where it may.

Since Todd Butler was hired, I've never really gone to the conference tournament believing we could win. Nothing more than blind fan hope. This year is different. There's more talent here, and at least some of these guys have expectations for the team AND themselves and have a burning desire to be successful. Certainly could go 2 & Q and I'm not predicting they're going to win, but it's not going to surprise me if they do well. The program is turning the corner. It's happened in the season, not prior to (as I hoped) or next season (as was probably more reasonable to believe).


I agree, Rodden is likely to be the choice at 2B. Bye and Ingram 2nd team I think. Holden hasn't had enough chances to make a difference in conference, something I would dearly LOVE to see reverse course starting in 7 days.

[1972Shocker]

I agree that job No. 1 is to continue to pitch, hit and play well. Build the confidence and a winning attitude.

I think a series win over USF is important. A series sweep doesn't seem too probable, but it's not impossible (for either team really).

[WstateU]

I agree that job No. 1 is to continue to pitch, hit and play well. Build the confidence and a winning attitude.

I think a series win over USF is important. A series sweep doesn't seem too probable, but it's not impossible (for either team really).

Hopefully, we have the...

[WuDrWu]

We'll see how it goes. It's not the easiest time in Florida which I'm sure sounds crazy. But there are a lot of distractions and let's face it, it's fun down there. Have to be able to balance what has to be done vs what wants to be done. I think HCEW is really good at balancing that...but the team has to be on the same page.

I'm not about to predict anything after 3 weeks of improved ball, but as I said earlier, cautious optimism for now.

[TMacKC]

I’m encouraged that they’re still fighting hard and seem to be playing with great energy. Would be nice to see them build on that and roll into next season with some momentum. Looks like a nice recruiting class coming in. 2023 class looks damn good, too. So in spite of the brutal mid season slump, I really believe this is an ascending team.

[1972Shocker]

As I said earlier, cautious optimism for now.

Sounds like the most reasonable place to be right now. By the end of Saturday we could feel a little better or quite a bit worse about the Shocks depending on how the USF series goes.

[1972Shocker]

First Pitch Times at USF Altered

https://goshockers.com/news/2022/5/18/baseball-first-pitch-times-at-usf-altered.aspx

Wichita State's baseball games at South Florida this week have all been moved up due to the threat of inclement weather. The new schedule of games is below:

Thursday, May 19 - 1:00 PM CT
Friday, May 20 - 8:00 AM CT
Saturday, May 21 - 8:00 AM CT

I hope our guys like getting up and at 'em early.

[1972Shocker]

Game 1

Going with the opener strategy again. Caden Favors coming off his 4 innings of scoreless, no-hit baseball against OU on Monday gets the start. I'm guessing HCEW would like to get 3 innings out of Caden then turn it over to Jace Kaminska.

Good start for Caden. 1-2-3 first inning on 10 pitches.

You know things are kind of going the Shocks way when they feature Payton Tolle in a small ball attack. Payton led off the 2nd with a high boncer between 1st and 2nd. The 2nd baseman made a diving stop on the outfield grass but the speedy Tolle beat the throw to first. With 1 out Payton moved to 2nd on a wild pitch. Ross Cadena stroked a solid single to right center scoring Payton from 2nd. Shocks have the early lead at 1-0.

Caden gave up a lead off walk in the bottom of the 2nd but worked around it without too much trouble.

The Shocks pick up 1 in the 3rd but probably should have been at least 2. Brock Rodden singled sharply through the hole to left followed by a drive to left center by Sawyre Thornhill that unfortunately took a big hop over the fence for a ground rule double. Jordan Roger just missed a double into the right field corner before grounding out to short with Rodden scoring and Thornhill moving to 3rd. Tolle just missed a double down the right field line by inches and then struck out on check swing and Andrew Stewart popped out to 2nd to end the Shocker at bat. Shocks lead 2-0.

Caden gives way to Kaminska.in the 3rd. Thought Caden might go 3 if he was effective, which he was, and he probably would have if he had not pitched 4 innings on Monday. Jace sets USF down in order.

The Shocks pick up an unearned run in the 5th to extend their lead to 3-0. Walk and delayed steal of 2nd by Rodden, infield hit by Rogers and a knuckler (literally) off the handle by Tolle was Bill Bucknered byt the USF 1st baseman.

BTW, the Shockers have had 3 batters slip in the right-handed batters box after putting the ball in play.

USF jumps all over Kaminska in the bottom of the 5th. USF led off the in with a triple to right center and a double to left center, boy well struck, to make it 3-1. A ground ball to 2nd moved the runner to 3rd. The next batter grounded sharply to Stewart at short who went home to get the runner from 3rd trying to score. So the Shocks had a runner on 1st with 2 outs and only 1 run in. A bloop single to left that landed just inside the foul line put runners at 1st and 2nd followed by a home run to center as USF takes the lead 4-0. This inning was pretty much all on Kaminska. One USF got him in the stretch he wasn't very effective.

Grayson Jones comes on to pitch in the bottom of the 6th in relief of Kaminska and is not effective. Walk, walk, sac bunt and a sac fly scores a run for USF. A walk puts runners at 1st and 2nd with 2 outs. Nate Adler came on to take over for Jones and gave up an RBI double to make it 6-3 at the end of 6.

USF tacks on a 2-run homer off of Nate Adler in the bottom of the 8th to extend their lead to 8-3.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

Is the game on ESPN+?

[Kung Wu]

Live stats for game #1: http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=397065

[ShockerFever]

Can’t believe how far Kaminska has fallen off. Probably read too many of his own headlines.

[ShockerFever]

I would never pitch a fastball to Ingrim. Throw him nothing but breaking balls and he’ll strikeout every time.

[ShockerFever]

Have we already given up? Why in the world would you put Jones out there?

Back to normal.