WSU @ UCF

[Shockm]

Here are the American baseball Standings. We trail UCF by 1.5 games and we go to UCF this weekend. I'm not sure how we piece together Starting Pitching for a 4 game series with our pitching staff inconsistencies, but I didn't see us splitting with ECU last weekend either. It will be interesting to see what Wedge does this weekend. We currently are in 4th place in the conference and if we can keep that up, it is a very big improvement from our last AAC baseball campaign in 2019. We finished in 8th place (there were 9 teams) that year with a 9-15 record.

Following UCF, we finish out with USF, and Memphis.

2021 Baseball Standings

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Choose A Season: 2021 Baseball Standings 2020 Baseball Standings 2019 Baseball Standings 2018 Baseball Standings 2017 Baseball Standings 2016 Baseball Standings 2015 Baseball Standings 2014 Baseball Standings

Tulane	13-2	0.867	24-14	0.632	17-10	7-4	0-0	W1
East Carolina	12-4	0.750	30-9	0.769	24-3	6-6	0-0	L1
UCF	12-8	0.600	22-22	0.500	9-9	13-13	0-0	W3
Wichita State	10-9	0.526	22-17	0.564	15-5	7-11	0-1	W1
Cincinnati	10-10	0.500	21-20	0.512	12-5	9-15	0-0	W1
USF	7-9	0.438	17-21	0.447	12-10	5-11	0-0	L1
Houston	4-12	0.250	16-23	0.410	10-10	6-13	0-0	L1
Memphis	3-17	0.150	13-29	0.310	10-11	2-18	1-0	L3

[WuDrWu]

I know I sound like a sunshine pumper, but you can't get too locked into 1 or 2 stats or standings. Memphis, for instance, is just not terrible at all.

I'm not saying they are top 50 either. They really lack pitching. But they were 0-8 at Arkansas, Ole Miss, Vandy and Baylor combined. About 300 programs would be 0-9 or 1-7 in those games. Baseball RPI factors little in home and away games, and zero factoring in Q divisions.

Also the fact the NCAA defines them as "Quadrants" is hugely misleading. They're hardly even. 1-50, 51-100, 101-150 and 150-338. Might as well be P5+ about 7 programs. The rest of P5 and fill ins. Decent mid majors and everyone else.

Otherwise non con they were 10-4. They aren't top 50 but they aren't 177 either. Houston isn't 200. They beat Texas, and damned near beat them twice. Tulane I'm not sure about. They've benefited huge from scheduling luck. They've played 4 conference road games, at Memphis, their partner. and 7 of their 13 conference wins are against Memphis. USF was the only other one scheduled so far and Covid did that one in. Against us, we just lost Kocis and hadn't gotten used to that. Plus Gibby missed half the series and Cornblum about 90% of it. Burned Jace with the Saturday cancel, I think on purpose but I'm a conspiracy guy. However, they have the 1 or 1A pitcher in the league and they're also really young and getting better.

I wish we were healthy. No Hamilton, no Lindemann, basically no Peters. Arguably 3 of the best arms returning, if not the 3 best. Lindemann showed his worth at the end of 2019. Hamilton turned down 400K in the draft and was more than solid last year, and there isn't a scout around that wasn't interested in Peters. Big guys with big arms. Then after 7 games with Houston, we lose our biggest gun, which causes more than a single loss. Notice Paxton isn't seeing nearly the pitches he was prior to Kocis going out. Stroh is just getting healthy, and one of only 4 lefties we have.....Schooley won't pitch, Clack had 1 appearance and we won't see him again either. Only Spencer as a starter is the only lefty we can roll out. It matters. I realize next guy up and all, but losing your best is rarely a positive.

I sure hope the Big 10 is a one bid league if the American is a 1 bid league.

Support was decent this weekend. I hope more people will come out the last 2 series. It means something. It's important. It should be warmer. We NEED to support this program. Now.


I have no idea what we'll do this weekend, rotation wise, but I suspect we'll stay with Snavely and Jace on Friday. I'd like to see Stroh on Saturday, and then see how it goes. But we have to have someone other than Jace getting guys out. Wouldn't mind seeing a bit more of Bye. Actually, I'd like to see circumstances where Bye gets a chance more often.

[SB Shock]

I didn't see us splitting with ECU last weekend either.

A split with ECU in the fans minds probably seemed less probable because we are clouded by our own biases. But last weekend results was not that unexpected. Based on ISR the probability of WSU getting a split was actually 42%

WSU individual game raw win probability versus UCF is 55%, that reduces to by 5% due to home field advantage for UCF. So WSU each game has 50/50 chance of winning in each game. WSU going to need a couple series where they exceed expected probabilities.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

Really need 3 of 4 this weekend in my mind. A split would be ok, but not great. Winning on the road at top conference spots is not easy though. That's it from Captain Obvious.

[WuDrWu]

UCF's Friday guy, Colton Gordon will have TJ surgery and is gone for the rest of the year. Certainly their best starter, he didn't go this last weekend against Memphis. UCF took 3 of 4 against the TIgers. Only 1 start went more than 4.1 innings, but they have plenty of depth.

Still, take out Gordon's numbers (13 walks vs 72 Ks) and their staff K/BB ratio is 1.94 vs the Shocks 2.25. They have plenty of arms but they aren't lock down guys at all.

They also don't field it great. .964 on the year, and a little worse in conference at .961.

If we could put down a bunt, and clearly we struggle, we could test those numbers at times.

They will run, a lot. They are 40-51 in conference and 74-96 overall.

By comparison, WSU is 21-28 in conference and 46-55 overall.


Opponents in conference are only 15-23 when attempting to steal. Our opponents are 19-26.

Both teams are hitting .263 in conference but UCF has a higher OB% and Slugging %. They hit for more power and take more extra bases.

And you'd have to say UCF has played a slightly more challenging conference slate so far. Both played at Cincy, and both ECU but we got the Pirates at home at UCF was at ECU.

We had 8 vs next to last UH and they've had 8 vs USF. But they got Memphis 4 times at home vs our 3 games at first place Tulane.

All that being said, with Gordon out, we should, imho, split at worse. Put the ball in play, sacrifice successfully when the time calls for it, limit walks and battle and we should be ok.

[shoxlax]

With our pitching so sketchy, 8-4 or even 7-5 may be about the best we can hope for.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Put me solidly that Eddy needs to start Saturday.

Sunday, you throw Johnny Wholestaff and let them battle for the #4 spot the last two weekends.

We need someone to get hot at the bottom of the order.

Other than that, keep competing. I like where this team is. They are capable of a very strong finish. Tulane looking very good, and were definitely underrated pre-season due to expectations of Freshmen. Would love to have a couple of those guys.

[Kung Wu]

I think it's pretty safe to say that we are seeing the incremental improvement we expected to see when Wedge took over, aren't we? I mean it would have been nice if he had some magic pixie dust he could have sprinkled over the team and brought them to a super regional in year 1.5, but realistically this was always going to be 3-4 year process just to get the team to play consistent and become a league champion contender year in and year out, wasn't it?

[ShockerFever]

I think it's pretty safe to say that we are seeing the incremental improvement we expected to see when Wedge took over, aren't we? I mean it would have been nice if he had some magic pixie dust he could have sprinkled over the team and brought them to a super regional in year 1.5, but realistically this was always going to be 3-4 year process just to get the team to play consistent and become a league champion contender year in and year out, wasn't it?

Correct. That’s why the CWS talk in February was a tad premature.

[ShockerFever]

But it is still frustrating to see the team act like it’s never played little league before one week and then be competitive against good competition the next. The pitching situation is equally as frustrating considering we’re into year 3 there.

More than anything, the Houston series completely got fans and maybe players off the rails. I admit I was partially duped too because we had no idea Houston was that bad. Needless to say we’re light years ahead of where we were with the previous regime and there is actual hope in play with the new staff.

[Shockm]

But it is still frustrating to see the team act like it’s never played little league before one week and then be competitive against good competition the next. The pitching situation is equally as frustrating considering we’re into year 3 there.

More than anything, the Houston series completely got fans and maybe players off the rails. I admit I was partially duped too because we had no idea Houston was that bad. Needless to say we’re light years ahead of where we were with the previous regime and there is actual hope in play with the new staff.

Try 1/4 of a year last year, and 3/4 of a year this year.

Kocis got hurt after Houston, and Liam Eddy obtained the ypps after Tulane.

[WuDrWu]

My projected finishes:

ECU 21-7
Tulane 18-9
UCF 19-13
WSU 18-13
Cincy 16-16
USF 12-16
Houston 8-20
Memphis 7-25

Cincy is at Houston this week then ECU and Tulane at home. Hard to see them finishing better than 6-6. 7 and 5 would be really good. My point is 5, 6, 7 & 8 seem pretty much set in some order right now. Unless we fall apart, the question is can we win more at UCF and USF and Memphis at home compared to UCF hosting us and Houston and at Tulane. Given we lost Jace at Tulane and therefore lose the tiebreaker against UCF, I think we need to take 3 from them to get into the 3rd spot, which would so much better in Florida.

Having ECU, UCF, Cincy and Memphis on one side and us, Tulane, Houston and USF on the other would be about as good as one could hope.


Of course, 10-2 finish (certainly not impossible) means 2nd or 3rd for sure. All of the "good" speculation hinges on ECU winning the league, which they should. This weekend will likely clear up a lot of the questions.

Friday's Williams vs Olthoff matchup should be a good one, if it materializes.

[Kung Wu]

Correct. That’s why the CWS talk in February was a tad premature.

I don't remember that talk, but yeah, it was premature.

[WuDrWu]

Try 1/4 of a year last year, and 3/4 of a year this year.

Kocis got hurt after Houston, and Liam Eddy obtained the ypps after Tulane.

Not speaking for Fev, but I think he's referring to the pitching coach on year 3.

In defense of Pelf, and to be clear I will defend PCMP to the grave as I believe he'll be fantastic here, he was completely handcuffed in season 1 under Butler. Almost a throwaway, imho.

[WstateU]

Try 1/4 of a year last year, and 3/4 of a year this year.

Kocis got hurt after Houston, and Liam Eddy obtained the ypps after Tulane.

Yikes! I hate the "ypps" (yips)...