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Looking good. Great job EW and staff.
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D1 baseball didn't have WSU listed in this week's bracket, but Baseball America has them First Four Out.
2021 NCAA Baseball Tournament Projected Field Of 64 (4/21/21) (baseballamerica.com)Comment
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Weird seeing LSU in the Next Four Out section.Comment
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That's actually a good article and breakdown EXCEPT when it comes to the B1G. 3 teams from the Big 10 is a joke, 4 is criminal, and then to have the audacity to include Maryland as a possible 5th in the first four out? I will fire bomb the NCAA headquarters if 5 B1G teams get in. (insert sarcasm emoji) ONE TEAM CONFERENCE.
Good to see they are penalizing LSU for playing 24 of 24 non conference games in the state of Louisiana (22 at home). But I'm not holding my breath.
Virginia doesn't deserve in ahead of Ball State (or VCU, who is in as a #4 auto bid, who just beat Virginia). Games matter.
Don't have a problem with Alabama but it's another SEC team with only 3 games away from home in the non con. But if they lose 5 or 6 finishing.....flush.
Kentucky 22 home non con games, 1 road. They'll be lucky to finish 3-3 in conference. Not good enough unless they win at least 4 more conference games, maybe 5. Maybe still not enough. No rewards for only playing home games and rewarding the conference.
Carolina is another team that's going to have to win 4-6 conference games (not easy) coming down the stretch.
At least we're in the mix. Several teams play each other on the bubble coming down the stretch. WSU just needs to win games, and a lot of them.
2 sweeps and we're right there imho.
But 4 or 5 Big 10 teams? Come on man!?!?
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The Ivy league hasn't competed this season and won't have a team use their auto bid. So 30 auto bids and 34 at large.
The Mountain West is not having a conference tournament. Regular season champion will represent the conference. Given that, current standings and who plays whom, I am considering them a 1 bid conference as of now.
Other certain 1 bids are the American East, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southland, SWAC, Summit & WAC.
Should be 1 bid leagues are the Big East (Uconn and Cu I guess) and Big10 (I suppose IU, NU and Iowa are possibles, but shouldn't be considered imho).
Hopeful 1 bid leagues (at large possibilities in parenthesis):
ASUN (Liberty is all but a certain at large, and if FGCU wins one at FSU today or tomorrow they are too) FGCU split 2 with Florida State on May 12. Impressive. 3/4 against Ku and 6-0 vs USF. FGCU probably wants to get to the finals or win the tourney to feel good. Liberty is in right now. Pull for Liberty to run the table and FGCU to get ice cold.
A10 (VCU is on a 15 game heater and Rhode Island is tenuous at best) VCU is the only at large possibility I think. Would like to see them lose several down the stretch.
Big South (SCUpstate won games, including @ GT & @ Clemson but not much else there. Campbell has less to hang their hat on)
Big West (Irvine is deserving, UCSB isn't unless they beat UCLA this week, even then it's tough)
Colonial (Northeastern is another RPI issue. They're on a 12 game heater against awful teams and finish the regular season with 8 game vs 10-20 Delaware. They better win them all, even with a 30 RPI because they don't pass the eye test)
Horizon (Wright State is #28 and 25-11 but 0-5 at Vandy and Bama and 2 of 3 vs FGCU. 1-7 Q1 and 2 isn't at large material)
MAAC (Fairfield is 32-1 and done for the regular season. Best wins are Monmouth at 69 and that's a paper tiger.)
MAC apparently has no tourney (Ball State should be in the mix. Split 4 at Arizona and won 2 of 3 at Kentucky. Would have helped winning at least 1 vs ODU and need to win most if not all of the last which I assumes gives them the auto if they finish 1st. CMU is not in the mix for an at large even with a 68 RPI)
MVC (Indiana State needs to finish strong but certainly has the non con for at large. DBU is tough to figure)
MW (Nevada is not in the mix. AF could be but they better win a lot. Still think it's a one bid league)
Southern (Mercer, but I don't think they are an at large team 0-5 Q1 and 0-3 vs SIU)
Sun Belt (USA is an outsider hanging their hat on a 2-0 record vs a good Southern Miss team)
WCC says their tourney is cancelled. Assuming the regular season champ goes. That's Gonzaga right now and they deserve a bid. 2 game lead over San Diego and hope they win out and keep the lead.
Give the ACC 6 at large (honestly that's generous but they could get more) Big12 4, CUSA 3, PAC12 6, SEC 9 that's 28 and 2 random is 30. We can be in that mix for the last 4. With Tulane but behind Tulane.
The RPI is screwed up this year. Just look at Creighton and the Big East. There's NO WAY Creighton is in the mix for an at large. NONE.
They split 2 games each with Lipscomb and Belmont (both under .500) and took only 2 of 3 vs Omaha. They lost all 4 to Kansas. Beat Bradley twice who is 16-17 and 2-0 against a 6-17 San Jose State team. That's a 9-8 record vs teams that are all lousy. Now they are 11-2 so far in the Bleast, but the UCONN games were cancelled and everyone else sucks. And those 2 losses are to horrible teams.
Now, at least UCONN played a competitive schedule, but 13-12 non con and then a terrible league schedule with no good games played. Not at all deserving of an RPI 11 spots better than WSU. Sorry, the Bleast is a one bid league. Neither CU or UCONN has done enough to deserve a bid.Comment
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Thank you
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I still don't get the love affair with the B1G. 4 teams is nothing but pandering to a major conference.
D1 Baseball has San Diego in as an at large. They literally have ONE win over a team with a winning record (they won 1 of 3 against San Diego State to open the season. ONE win. 1-0 combined Q1 & 2 (Beat USC who has a losing record). RPI 76. That's not an at large team.
I'll try to wait until Sunday to update. There are a lot of big series this weekend, none bigger than WSU needing to sweep USF. Let's start with that, hopefully.Comment
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What are the chances for WSU squeaking in this year?Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Probably 20% as an at-large? Margins for error are razor thin these next two weekends, though.Originally posted by Kung Wu View PostComment
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"You Just Want to Slap The #### Outta Some People"Comment
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Yeah it seems to me if we fall apart at all and end up with a 4 seed, then the chances crash to near zero. But if we can maintain a hot streak and keep the 3 seed, that raises the chances to maybe 33% or so, but a LOT has to go right just to get there, and then it has to go REALLY right once there.Originally posted by shocks02 View PostKung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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Going to try and clean up the at large/conference looks as we get closer to post season. For the sake of discussion, I'll limit at large to teams ahead (imo) of WSU. There are enough.
One Bid Conferences: America East, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southland, SWAC, Summit and WAC (Ivy league no bid).
Hopeful One Bid Conferences:
A10- VCU has to be at least considered with 2-0 record vs Virginia and wins against ODU and Liberty and Virginia Tech. Better win the A10 tourney just in case.
Big East - UCONN is 1-2 vs Virginia, 1-2 vs Southern Miss and 0-4 vs Texas Tech. Other than that a horrid Big East scheduled and missed games against Creighton. I suppose they are in the mix somewhere, but I'd be stunned.
Colonial - Northeastern is 1-2 @ Wake Forest, 1-2 @ ODU, 0-1 vs Boston College. 2 wins against teams with a winning record. RPI 37. Doubtful at large.
Horizon - Wright State 29-11 RPI 29 0-2 @ Vandy (1-0 loss) , 0-3 @ Alabama (1-0 loss, 8-7 loss), 1-3 vs FGCU. 19-1 against RPIs 254, 256, 264, 272. Better win the tournament.
MAAC - Fairfield is 32-1 RPI 2 & done for the regular season. Best wins are at Monmouth RPI 51 and that also doesn't make sense. Better win the tournament.
MAC - Ball State has a good non con but went 2-2 at home vs Kent State this week. Central Michigan eliminated themselves with a 1-3 weekend at horrid RPI 215 Western Michigan. CMU is out and Ball State on life support. Regular season champ goes, and they both need to win. Ball State barely alive for an at large.
MVC - SIU 36-16 RPI 74 started 14-0 (weak schedule but beat Mercer 3 times) but 1-3 vs Bradley & ISUr. But beat ISUb 3 of 4 this weekend and RPI jumps 30. DBU 31-13 RPI 56 2-2 vs Gonzaga, 2-0 vs Mizzou, lost to Arizona, beat Oklahoma. Lost 2 of 3 vs ORU, lost 2-3 vs Air Force. Beat ISUb 3 of 4 but split 4 vs Bradley this weekend. 4 games at SIU this week are big.
Sun Belt - South Alabama 28-18 RPI 72 lost 1-2 vs SE Missouri, 1-2 vs Middle Tennessee State, 1-2 vs Jacksonville State. Lost to Alabama, 2-0 vs Southern Miss. 2-1 at Oral Roberts. 0-1 @ LSU. 0-3 @ Little Rock. 1-2 at Texas State. 1-2 @ Georgia Southern. Lots to digest there. Georgia Southern 29-20 RPI 78 0-3 vs Tennessee, 1-2 vs East Carolina. Lost at Clemson, 1-1 vs Georgia. 1-0 vs Mercer, 2-1 @ Oklahoma. Need to beat Mercer and UTSA this week.
West Coast - Gonzaga 30-13 RPI 17. 2-0 vs Washington State. 2-0 vs Washington. 1-2 at Oregon State. 2-1 @ TCU. 0-2 @ Texas Tech (2 one run losses) 1-1 vs Kansas State and 2-2 at Dallas Baptist. They are a lock. Hope they win their league as there is no WCC tourney. They have a 2 game lead with 3 to play.
More to come in the morning.
ACC AAC ASUN B12 Big South B1G Big West CUSA MWC PAC12 SEC Southern
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