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This is the year where u know at what level this program is capable of playing under Butler. They probably are not going to be better next year with the veteran talent they will be losing. If they are not a NCAA regional team - then it time to move on.
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Last edited by SB Shock; February 26, 2018, 02:50 PM. -
I'm late to this thread so I'll copy this here as I commented on your other post in the game thread and also add to this post:
I'm not sure how much stock we can put into the first 6 games as a guide to anything.Last year, we won the first 7 games (I believe).My gut says our competition so far has not been that good and, yes, we won all 6, but didn't overwhelm. Just too soon to gauge.
I hope that my expectations for Butler in the past has been very reasonable. As I've said before, my first measurement was how we did in the league (MVC) for what we were paying. Not getting to the College World Series, not winning the first round of regionals, not always being an at-large team, not even winning Valley Championships every year. In my mind, there was no reason, at least after a year or two, to be competitive with Dallas Baptist or whoever else was at the top of the Valley. We were not.
Had we been more competitive at the top of the Valley, we would have had hopes to be competitive with the top 3-4 teams in the AAC. If we are, I will be very happy, shut up, and enjoy. If not, I will think (and probably say) that we are NOT getting our money's worth, particularly after this many years. This does not mean I won't support our players.
WuDrWu, what is your expectation for our baseball team after this many years of big $s spent?
To add:
There is a lot of difference between where I think we should be by now (yes, salary paid has a lot to do with it) and what I think would be reasonable given the past underperformance and the new league.
I'm in @Cdizzle's camp regarding the first part of that sentence above. No ifs, ands, or buts.
As to the second part of my sentence above, I'd be elated with a first division finish. Do I give a pass to Butler if we do that? Probably not.
Does anyone know what the baseball head coaches make in the AAC?
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But I thought WSU's investment in baseball was being left in the dust. Wonder how it compared to MVC teams we couldn't compete with. -
Yea, that's the thing with the arms race argument - the tippy top is spending a lot, and the middle-to-lower tiers for P5 conferences (excluding the Big Ten) are no longer total pushovers, but we have paid a top ~10% salary with top 25% facilities for a decade now with 0 at-large bids to show for it. I understand the steep odds against reliving the late 80s/early 90s anytime soon but I think it's quite a reach to use bottom-level SEC/Big 12/ACC teams' spending boosts as a justification for our failure to equal or exceed the number of at-large bids received by Bradley, Missouri State and DBU during that timeframe. -
Jim Penders (UCONN) has a base salary of $182,000. Good return on investment IMO.
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Expectations for this year can't be made in isolation. When we say this year we are saying this 5th year of HCTB's tenure and are we positioned to have reasonable success on a consistent basis going forward. Clearly 6 games against McNeese and Omaha don't answer a lot of questions.
I would expect that in the 3rd year of a Coach's tenure you would begin see that Coach's imprint on the program and have a pretty good idea of what you have. In HCTB's case that imprint is not very impressive and was no better in the 4th year. I will acknowledge that the injuries to pitching staff have been a significant contributing factor. But the bottom line is the Shockers simply have not played good baseball under HCTB.
Most of the hype around this season have centered around Alec Bohm and Grayson Jenista. While those two may be worth the price of admission (assuming teams continue to throw the ball over the plate when they are at bat) but I have consistently stated my opinion that they aren't enough to carry this team without a much improved effort by the Shocker pitching staff and improvied defensive play. And injuries continue to be a factor as Alex Segal and Cody Tyler are still in "rehab" mode more or less not to mention the injury to Trey Vickers (and while I would expect Trey back relatively soon hamstring pulls can be nagging -- Right Fred?). Liam Eddy, Tommy Barnhouse and Clayton McGinness are off to good starts but will they be able to sustain that against better competition. And even if they can we will need much more than those 3 to help carry the ptiching load.
While looking forward to next year should probably be deferred to much later in the season I personally am not seeing that much to think things will change much. In fact, with Bohm and Jensita very likely moving on at the end of this season a step backwards seems more likely than not unless something wonderful happens with our pitching staff this year and next.
Our non-conference schedule may provide more wins this year due to being downgraded somewhat. But more wins against lesser competition does not necessarily equate to better baseball. The AAC portion of the schedule looks to be very tough for the most part.
I don't know if I can specify a specific number of wins or post-season wins we need to have to be "acceptable". To paraphrase SCJ Potter Stewart -- I shall not today attempt further to define what would constitute an acceptable season for the Shockers this year and perhaps I could never succeed in intelligibly doing so. But I will know it when I see it, and to this point the tenure of HCTB is not that. Can the Shocks change my mind about that between now and the end of the year? Yes, I'm not locked into that and I hope that happens but I'm not overly optimistic it will.
ADDB will be faced with the usual consderations at the end of the year. Is the baseball program where it should be and where we want it to be? Does the near future look promising or not-so-promising? Does ADDB have confidence that HCTB can effectively and consistently lead this program to better things or are there better options avialable both for the near and long-term health of the program? And even if the answers to these questions point to make a change does ADDB feel like he has the financial wherewithal to underatke a $650,000 buyout at the end of the year or can he afford not to undertake a buyout?
I will say that, in general, I would be quite satisfied to have the Shocks win 60%-65% of their games, finish in the Top 5 of the AAC every year, make a regional 5 out of every 10 years, a supergregional 2 out of every 10 years and a CWS appearance once every 10 years. Let's say the Shocks win 37 games this year and make a regional. That would put HCTB at about 233-230 (0.503) with 1 regional in 5 years. Still a bit short of my standards (and, of course, my standard may be overly optimistic). However, my expectation is that if the Shocks can achieve this then HCTB will be back for year 6. Heck even if the Shocks fall short of this he might be back. Difficult to know ADDB's thinking and mindset on this.
Last edited by 1972Shocker; February 26, 2018, 06:33 PM.Comment
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Echoing others in this thread, I look at this season along with the first four. These are all HCTB's guys. We have two guys in the middle of the order getting AA talk/honors. I know it's harsh to say, but it really felt like this team quit last year during conference play. Someone mentioned the Valley's ranking as 16th best and the multiple 200+ RPI teams and yet they finished with a losing record overall and in conference and, at times, seemed to quit competing. Seeing guys go crazy in summer play just added to my frustration with last year's team.
I feel at large discussion and a post season birth should be in play, but am prepared to finish .500 and be disappointed when the program doesn't make a change after the season.Comment
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Regional appearance, hopefully win the conferenceComment
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I am praying the Shockers finish in the Top 60 schools (see link) by winning 40 games that include a victory against all scheduled P5 schools and finishing in the Top 5 AAC standings.
What I think will happen is the Shockers will win fewer than half their games and be embarrassed in at least three games but no more than five. With this result I pray that Butler will be gone and the Shockers find a new individual to return the Shocker Baseball program to its former glory.Comment
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Kind of hard to take any analysis that can not get a basic fact like conference affiliation correct.Originally posted by Shocker1976 View Post
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D1baseball IMO is the best web site regards NCAA baseball; unfortunate WSU conference affiliation is incorrect.Originally posted by SB Shock View Post
What source do you think provides better information on college baseball?Comment
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If they can’t get their conference affilation correct then what else is suspect? They dropped WSU from 73 to 100. WSU was not in the top 80 last year, and so to drop them 27 spots this year is laughable especially when this is Butler best team he has fielded. If anything they should have move up (from outside of the top 100).Originally posted by Shocker1976 View Post
i used to use D1 all the time (for their scores), but since they are now pay site just for even that, they are basically useless to me. Plus they have Kendal Rogers who is a WSU hater - so that another strike against the site.Comment
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Depends what I'm looking forOriginally posted by Shocker1976 View Post
Baseball American - Top 25, previews, prospects
Boyd's World - RPI, ISR
College Baseball Insider - News around college baseball, schedules/scores
College Baseball Daily - New around college baseball
College baseball Central -news, pod casts (Sullentrop contributes)
NCAA Baseball D1 Scoreboard - links to stats, score, box scores, rankings
Warren Nolan Baseball - RPI, team sheets
Perfect Game (College Baseball)
Collegiate Baseball - rankings
NCAA Baseball Just the Facts - historical data for regionals/cws
ESPN App (Baseball) - scores on mobile device, coaches poll, some news
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For Todd Butler to retain his job at WSU as a 5th year head coach with his current salary, i would expect the following:
- 35 or more wins.
- Top 3 finish in the AAC regular season AND/OR semi-finals in the post season tournament.
- At Large NCAA consideration.
- Top 25 ranking for at least 4 weeks of the season.
If Butler's feet aren't held to the fire now, the program sinks further and further into irrelevance and it becomes nearly impossible to bring it back.
Complete turnover of the assistants needs to be more than window dressing - real results need to occur. We have seen a lot of bad BBIQ which needs to end; if not, the clear problem will point to Butler.
My family won't go to games any more. I now have a single season ticket for baseball. I have watched probably close to 1000 Shox games and over they last couple of years they fail any eye test for a quality baseball program.
It is going to take some magic to fulfill these expectations. I'm not optimistic.Basketball Season Tix since '77-78 . . . . . . Baseball Season Tix since '88Comment
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Shocker 85 - are you gaining confidence that HCTB is going to meet your expectations?:Originally posted by Shocker85 View Post
1. To date good progress toward 35 or more wins
2. Growing support for the Shockers in the National Polls
3. Ranked within the Top 25 already this season
4. Results to date appears to indicate the performance of current assistants is more than "window dressing"
Have any of your family members attended a game this season? If not, are they at least considering such an act??
Are you more optimistic that the Shockers may have found some of that missing "magic" of which you lamented?
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If the baseball continues in the current trajectory, I would advocate to retain the current staff. Marked improvement in OOC performance to date is promising; we'll see how the team fares in a tough league schedule. Ranking, RPI, and SoS are better than expected.
Improved coaching staff (assistants) seems to be taking hold. I'm impressed by the pitching overall, although a couple individuals are struggling. Some pitching moves seem mysterious to me.
Due to basketball season and some travel, i have only attended about 1/3 of the home games. I have noticed mild interest by other family members.
I will remain optimistic as conference play begins.
Watch for Consistency
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If I counted right, there are 13 OOC games and 24 AAC games left in the season. 26 of the remaining games are against teams with RPIs above 100 and 17 of those will be played at Eck Stadium. The Shocks would have to play .560 ball (21-16) the rest of the way to get to 35 wins before the AAC Tournament. I would say that's doable, with 40 wins still in the realm of the possible if another strong starting arm emerges in the mid-week (I'm looking at you, Segal) and we get a couple in the AAC tournament. The difference between 40 and 35 is probably the difference between an at-large and sacking up the bats (UCF got an at large with 40 wins last year).Last edited by Wuzee; March 23, 2018, 09:49 AM.“The rebellion on the populist right against the results of the 2020 election was partly a cynical, knowing effort by political operators and their hype men in the media to steal an election or at least get rich trying. But it was also the tragic consequence of the informational malnourishment so badly afflicting the nation. ... Americans gorge themselves daily on empty informational calories, indulging their sugar fixes of self-affirming half-truths and even outright lies.'”
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