Valley Thoughts

[1972Shocker]

In the ongoing saga of WSU's non-con getting blown up through no fault of WSU, I think this is the strangest.

While the AAC is having teams posting winning records against the dregs of D1 ball, the MVC is having its' best start in a long, long time.

http://host.madison.com/sports/colle...bc05a6e8f.html

The men are having a good start. The women not so much. Currently ranked 32nd in RPI out of 32 conferences.

[Horn28Clem30]

Felt like going to the UNI message board for a good laugh... they're talking about getting an at large bid. Fantastic stuff!

[shocks02]

Felt like going to the UNI message board for a good laugh... they're talking about getting an at large bid. Fantastic stuff!

If they beat Xavier, Iowa St and UTA at home and then go something like 16-2 or 17-1 in the Valley then they may have a chance. Maybe.

[WheatShock]

Felt like going to the UNI message board for a good laugh... they're talking about getting an at large bid. Fantastic stuff!

To be fair its not that crazy at this point. They have what should turn out to be 3 good wins already against NC State, SMU, & UNLV. Their only losses are to UNC & Nova.

To have a realistic shot they probably need to win 3 of 4 of the remaining non con schedule to pad the resume then go no worse than 15-3 in Valley play + make the finals in St. Louis. Whether that gets them in or not the way the committee has been screwing non power conference teams I can't say, but that should get them in if there's any justice IMO.

[Horn28Clem30]

I'm not denying that they should be in with that criteria at all. I just think the chances of them winning all 3 games then only losing 1 or 2 in the MVC schedule is about the same as me getting to take Beyonce on a date!

[WheatShock]

I can easily see them beating ISU and UTA. Xavier might be asking a lot but it is at home so they have a decent shot.

The toughest path for an large has to be the MVC schedule as any loss will be considered a bad one.

[UCONN_Husky]

The SMU win could be a REALLY good one by season's end. If they avoid too many bad losses in the Valley, I don't see why they wouldn't be in the mix.

[AndShock]

The Valley is actually pretty dang solid this year, which is actually going to hurt UNI more than it helps them. They’re not going to be able to put together a Wichita State-esque MVC record and the committee will leave them out for losing 4 MVC games even though all the losses will be in the 50-150 range.

[WuDrWu]

Please for the love of God stop talking about UNI at large bids on OUR board. It's bad enough they talk about it.

I realize I started the thread.....I guess that's what I get.

[RoyalShock]

Yesterday I went and looked at how the MVC teams were doing, as I was somewhat surprised at where the Valley is currently ranked in the conference RPI, even this early. I am often a harsh critic of giving that metric any respect before Christmas, and only a little before mid-to-late January. As expected, their "success" is only 2-3 good wins, one of which was an obvious fluke (InSU over IU). They have racked up a bunch of wins against cupcakes that have high SOS's early in the season because they play buy games on the road at power conference teams. Only UNI (somewhat surprisingly) has a semi-solid resume with the aforementioned wins over SMU, NCSU and UNLV and respectable losses to UNC and Nova.

Everyone else is fool's gold.

MSU has losses to NDSU and Georgia Southern. Valpo is undefeated against poor competition. Loyola similarly hasn't beat anyone of quality and lost embarrassingly to Boise St. Illinois State's win over So. Carolina isn't as good as it looks, got smashed by 30 vs. Nevada and lost to Charleston Southern.

Their conference rank will drop significantly once conference play gets going and the SOS of all those teams they beat begin to plummet.

I will grant they are better overall (sans WSU) than last year, but ultimately I expect they will be a 1-bid league with a 13-seed.

[AndShock]

Yesterday I went and looked at how the MVC teams were doing, as I was somewhat surprised at where the Valley is currently ranked in the conference RPI, even this early. I am often a harsh critic of giving that metric any respect before Christmas, and only a little before mid-to-late January. As expected, their "success" is only 2-3 good wins, one of which was an obvious fluke (InSU over IU). They have racked up a bunch of wins against cupcakes that have high SOS's early in the season because they play buy games on the road at power conference teams. Only UNI (somewhat surprisingly) has a semi-solid resume with the aforementioned wins over SMU, NCSU and UNLV and respectable losses to UNC and Nova.

Everyone else is fool's gold.

MSU has losses to NDSU and Georgia Southern. Valpo is undefeated against poor competition. Loyola similarly hasn't beat anyone of quality and lost embarrassingly to Boise St. Illinois State's win over So. Carolina isn't as good as it looks, got smashed by 30 vs. Nevada and lost to Charleston Southern.

Their conference rank will drop significantly once conference play gets going and the SOS of all those teams they beat begin to plummet.

I will grant they are better overall (sans WSU) than last year, but ultimately I expect they will be a 1-bid league with a 13-seed.

Their conference rank isn’t going to plummet as much as you think it will. The SOS plummeting is already factored into RPIForecast and it still has Drake projected as the worst Valley school at 218, ISUb is 167, everyone else is top 150 with 4 top 100 schools.

If the MVC outperforms expectations the rest of the non-con and the AAC underperforms, the MVC will finish ahead of the AAC in the RPI. I would claim that the MVC somehow gamed the RPI but KenPom backs up their rankings too. The MVC has miraculously managed to turn into a good mid-major conference in one offseason.

[wufan]

They just needed to even the playing field.

[wufan]

The difference between the MVC and the American is that three AAC teams are ranked higher than the highest MVC team. The first four MVC teams are neck and neck with teams 4-7 in the AAC. You get at large bids by being in the top 25. No MVC team ranks higher than 30, whereas the AAC has teams ranked 8, 17, 27, and 38.

Where the Valley beat us this year is with Drake being the loan team above 200, whereas the American has two teams above 300. Ouch!

All stats per rpiforecast, expected finish.

[AG1219]

Interesting ways to get fans

[AndShock]

http://www.mvc-sports.com/news/2017/12/7/arch-madness-tickets-on-sale-dec-8.aspx

New seating configuration in the lower bowl. I wonder why?

[DUShock]

Large segments of empty seats doesn't look good on the tele.