AAC and the Little 8

[Shocker1976]

In 2016 the Big 12-2 conducted a public campaign to identify and interview schools willing to join the Big 12-2. Ten members of the AAC (Cincinnati, Houston, USF, UCF, Memphis, Temple, East Carolina, SMU, Tulane and UConn) issued public announcements of their desire to receive such an invitation to join.

Sports media ranked the schools likely to receive an invitation with Cincinnati (#1) and Houston (#2) leading the pack followed by UConn (#4), Memphis (#5), UCF (#6) and USF (#7). Following weeks of publicly courting and interviewing these schools the Big 12-2 declined to invite any of these schools to join their conference. Many fans felt this decision was due to Fox and ESPN not wanting to increase their payments to the Big 12-2.

In 2021 OU and Texas, the two cash cows of the Big 12-2, announced their departure for the SEC leaving the Little 8 crying foul. KU immediately lobbied the B1G for an invite to join; however, the B1G, ACC and PAC 12 announced they had formed an alliance in an attempt to temper the outcry for expanding membership in their respective conferences. The PAC 12 followed this announcement with a Press Conference confirming they would not invite any schools to join their conference.

Various media outlets have indicated the media value for the Little Eight is commensurate with the media value of the AAC; which begs the question of would the interests of these two conferences not be best served by merging into a single conference? Clearly some difficulties might exist given the Big 12-2 debacle in 2016 and Little 8 Commissioner Bowlsby publicly accusing the AAC and ESPN of conspiring to poach Little 8 members.

Exciting times ahead for the AAC and the Little 8 with a variety of legal maneuvers playing themselves out. Given the recent performances of Commissioners Aresco and Bowlsby the likelihood of a successful merger is apparent with Aresco leading an expanded AAC.

[Wuzee]

IMO, nobody, not even the conferences, know what’s going to happen. The range of outcomes for WSU spans from “freaking amazing” to “utterly devastating”. This won’t play out over the course of months, but years.

For my part, I’m trying to just focus on the upcoming season. Extremely glad the balls are being rolled out.

[Shocker1976]

IMO, nobody, not even the conferences, know what’s going to happen. The range of outcomes for WSU spans from “freaking amazing” to “utterly devastating”. This won’t play out over the course of months, but years.

For my part, I’m trying to just focus on the upcoming season. Extremely glad the balls are being rolled out.

I agree with you that the upside for the Shocker basketball could be "freaking amazing" if Aresco is able to capture the Little Eight - potentially the best basketball conference in the country and a much improved baseball conference. I do not envision a "devastating" outcome for the Shockers; at worst the AAC could lose Cincinnati, Houston and possibly Memphis; three significant losses but there are good basketball teams Aresco could entice to join the AAC.

From experience in resolving contractual disputes between unequally weighted parties IMO the Little 8 will come to realize that OU and Texas are not going to pay them a windfall. The parties will enter into some form of arbitration or simple negotiations and part ways in time for OU and Texas to compete in the SEC 2023 season at the latest.

[ShockingButTrue]

I look for the b8 to play their last hand of hubris and litigate out of spite (cuz is sure ain't smarts), thus confirming themselves to be the humorless & patronizing (to say nothing of stupid) malingers we all know them to be. It promises to be good entertainment!

They've learned nothing of Karma's rightful place in the Wheel Of Life...

[SubGod22]

In the end, it's going to come down to Fox, ESPN and anyone else who might want to jump in. This will be about money more than anything. The Big 8 can limp along for a couple of years but ESPN seems to indicate that they're backing the AAC in the end. Fox has seemingly thought that additions don't really drive up the value enough to really put them ahead of the AAC and adding from it. The wildcard is a 3rd party like Amazon or one of the other streaming services jumping in and trying to make a big splash. The problem is, is the Big 8 plus a few additions worth that splash?

I'm not sure I see a merger of the two. KU will never allow themselves to be in the same conference as us. Worst case for us is somehow the Big 8 winning the merger power struggle and being able to discard a couple of schools from the AAC which we would be one at that point. What works against that idea though is Fox still has pull with the Big 8 and I don't think ESPN would play ball in that scenario which would probably not make it worthwhile to anyone involved. You have to hope the AAC holds together and the Big 8 schools split with us picking up a few of them while the rest end up in the MWC or maybe receiving an unexpected lifeline from one of the power conferences.

I'd love to see the Big 8 split and us pull in OSU, West Virginia, Baylor, Iowa State and Texas Tech. That would make a pretty good 16 in both football and basketball. To me, that's pretty much the best case scenario for us. Or even if we only ended up with three of those (OSU, WVU, pick one). West Virginia would make it a lot more palatable for the eastern members as the western side would get bigger and stronger and pretty much guarantee that the basketball tournament stays in our neck of the woods, which it might anyway with the current membership.

[WuTheOne]

I'm not so certain WSU gets left out if the B12-2-2 ends up with the upper hand. That would mean Navy gets left out. That's certainly a possibility, but the optics of dropping a service academy aren't good.

KU could scream, cry, and moan all they want, but that's one vote, and they could certainly be allowed to take their revenue stream from FB out of the merger and it would actually increase the revenue to the other schools.

[Shockm]

IMO, nobody, not even the conferences, know what’s going to happen. The range of outcomes for WSU spans from “freaking amazing” to “utterly devastating”. This won’t play out over the course of months, but years.

For my part, I’m trying to just focus on the upcoming season. Extremely glad the balls are being rolled out.

I agree with most of this. However, imo, "utterly devastating" for WSU may be if the pandemic doesn't allow them to have basketball fans in the arena again this year, or not be able to have a full schedule of home games. The Athletic Department badly needs the revenue from basketball. The Department can't afford to lose 5 to 6 Million Dollars for another year. I think that the President, local government, and Athletic Director are smart enough to allow fans into the games. Now, the conference rules that govern testing, and which games are played are another matter.

[SubGod22]

I'm not so certain WSU gets left out if the B12-2-2 ends up with the upper hand. That would mean Navy gets left out. That's certainly a possibility, but the optics of dropping a service academy aren't good.

KU could scream, cry, and moan all they want, but that's one vote, and they could certainly be allowed to take their revenue stream from FB out of the merger and it would actually increase the revenue to the other schools.

KSU would vote with them. Others in the B8 might object just because we don't play football. Navy could potentially decide it wouldn't be a conference they'd want to be in. One of their stipulations in the AAC is that they play as a part of the West as they want that exposure. I'm not sure if they'd get that in a full merger attempt.

[RoyalShock]

I don't know if this guy's sources are credible. He calls himself a Big 12 reporter, but has less than 800 followers. If Houston no longer being considered is true, and Memphis is also dropped from consideration, I have hope in the AAC, even if Cinci and UCF bolt.

[WuTheOne]

In a Rod Serling voice....
"Imagine, if you will, a conference with UCF, Boise State, and BYU in it". You could call it the Big Jet Lag Conference. Crossing 3 time zones with a sports team takes a toll.

UCF elevation: 82'. BYU elevation: 4.630'. That would be one tough trip.

I ucan understand why UH is off the table. The TX schools probably have enough votes and clout to prevent UH from getting entry. Should Memphis and Cincy leave, that would hurt BB, but the AAC would still be a solid conference. UCF is pretty meaningless from WSU's position.

[ShockingButTrue]

I don't know if this guy's sources are credible. He calls himself a Big 12 reporter, but has less than 800 followers. If Houston no longer being considered is true, and Memphis is also dropped from consideration, I have hope in the AAC, even if Cinci and UCF bolt.

They (Cinci and UCF) might think they have a better thing going in the AAC. Right now, what's the lure of the b8?

[Shocker1976]

[QUOTE=RoyalShock;n1308769]I don't know if this guy's sources are credible. He calls himself a Big 12 reporter, but has less than 800 followers. If Houston no longer being considered is true, and Memphis is also dropped from consideration, I have hope in the AAC, even if Cinci and UCF bolt.[QUOTE]

I struggle to believe this guy is posting reliable information; even the ego maniacs in Johnson County realize adding UCF, BYU and Boise State will not help augment the value of L8 media rights. If the L8 wants to add football focused schools then they should follow the UAB satire article posted in another thread. This pathway would generate a more sensible footprint for the new L10 conference but IMO would not be an attractive conference to Fox and ESPN.

I hope the AAC does not lose Cincinnati but I can live with it; UCF is meh to me as I believe the AAC can easily replace them.

[Shocker1976]

They (Cinci and UCF) might think they have a better thing going in the AAC. Right now, what's the lure of the b8?

I am in agreement with your thinking; why would either school leave the AAC for the vagaries of the L8? The Beakers have already signaled they are leaving if they can get an invite from the B1G. I also think the Beakers would rather be Independent than be a member of the suggested expanded L8 as they could dump the football program, promulgate their MBB superiority and keep all of the money they earn via March Madness success.

[SubGod22]

[QUOTE=Shocker1976;n1308806][QUOTE=RoyalShock;n1308769]I don't know if this guy's sources are credible. He calls himself a Big 12 reporter, but has less than 800 followers. If Houston no longer being considered is true, and Memphis is also dropped from consideration, I have hope in the AAC, even if Cinci and UCF bolt.

I struggle to believe this guy is posting reliable information; even the ego maniacs in Johnson County realize adding UCF, BYU and Boise State will not help augment the value of L8 media rights. If the L8 wants to add football focused schools then they should follow the UAB satire article posted in another thread. This pathway would generate a more sensible footprint for the new L10 conference but IMO would not be an attractive conference to Fox and ESPN.

I hope the AAC does not lose Cincinnati but I can live with it; UCF is meh to me as I believe the AAC can easily replace them.

You undervalue UCF. Any replacement would likely be inferior in both football and basketball.

[Shocker1976]

[QUOTE=SubGod22;n1308856][QUOTE=Shocker1976;n1308806]

I don't know if this guy's sources are credible. He calls himself a Big 12 reporter, but has less than 800 followers. If Houston no longer being considered is true, and Memphis is also dropped from consideration, I have hope in the AAC, even if Cinci and UCF bolt.

You undervalue UCF. Any replacement would likely be inferior in both football and basketball.

You are probably correct regards football, as I do not follow football closely. However, regards basketball there are a number of schools who have superior basketball programs to the product UCF offers.