Election Day 2016

[MoValley John]

Looks like she is going to win the popular vote by about 1.6%, so the polls really weren't that far off after all.

Polls were off, don't kid yourself. The polling was done state by state, just as in the electoral college. The polls were off badly in Pn, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida.

Wisconsin polls had Hollary winning so decidedly that the networks were ready to give her the state before voting began. Hillary was so far ahead in Wisconsin that she never visited the state. Not once.

Go ahead, try to talk margin of error, but over the course of 50 states, when the battleground states are missed so frequently in one election, the polls were off. If the polls weren't that far off, Jill Stein wouldn't be fleecing democrats for more money for pointless recounts that won't change anything. It would be more prudent to trash some more downtowns and perpetuate more hate hoaxes.

[MoValley John]

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[ShockingButTrue]

Polls were off, don't kid yourself. The polling was done state by state, just as in the electoral college. The polls were off badly in Pn, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida.

Wisconsin polls had Hollary winning so decidedly that the networks were ready to give her the state before voting began. Hillary was so far ahead in Wisconsin that she never visited the state. Not once.

Go ahead, try to talk margin of error, but over the course of 50 states, when the battleground states are missed so frequently in one election, the polls were off. If the polls weren't that far off, Jill Stein wouldn't be fleecing democrats for more money for pointless recounts that won't change anything. It would be more prudent to trash some more downtowns and perpetuate more hate hoaxes.

No kidding... Those guys (DNC) wrote the book on "Fake news"

Not only that, but they are blessed with powers of telepathy too. Thank God hildabeast didn't win. She basically admitted she thought there was a segment of our society she wasn't going to do a damn thing for. She never even met them, but she knew who they were huh?

[shocker3]

Looks like she is going to win the popular vote by about 1.6%, so the polls really weren't that far off after all.

Actually Clinton is leading by 2% right now: 48.2% to 46.2%. I agree that the polling wasn't nearly as bad as the media has tried to make it sound. Cook political report has a good spreadsheet that is constantly updated with the election results: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...le=true#gid=19

[shocker3]

Polls were off, don't kid yourself. The polling was done state by state, just as in the electoral college. The polls were off badly in Pn, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida.

Wisconsin polls had Hollary winning so decidedly that the networks were ready to give her the state before voting began. Hillary was so far ahead in Wisconsin that she never visited the state. Not once.

Go ahead, try to talk margin of error, but over the course of 50 states, when the battleground states are missed so frequently in one election, the polls were off. If the polls weren't that far off, Jill Stein wouldn't be fleecing democrats for more money for pointless recounts that won't change anything. It would be more prudent to trash some more downtowns and perpetuate more hate hoaxes.

In my opinion it was the political talking heads who were off and not the polls. IMO, they should have been saying that BASED ON THE POLLS, this is going to be a very close race. That Clinton has the edge, but it is too close to call (the final Real Clear Politics map, which is based solely on polls, had Clinton winning the electoral college 272-266 with most of the swing states within the margin of error) Instead they were acting like it was a forgone conclusion that Clinton would win.

Most of the polls were pretty accurate even state by state. The final polls in Michigan, PA and FL showed a very close race. Wisconsin was a state that wasn't expected to be close so there wasn't as much polling done. But even there the last polls out should a strong trend towards Trump. The last poll that I saw in WI was a Survey Monkey poll that came out on November 7. It had Clinton leading 44-42, well within the margin of error and a definite trend toward Trump since earlier polls had showed Clinton leading 4 to 8 points there. Ohio and IA were off in that they showed Trump winning by smaller margins, but again in those states the polls showed a strong trend toward Trump.

The other thing that a lot of pundits were missing is that both the national polls and many of the state polls showed a fairly high number of undecided voters for a presidential race. This was something that Nate Silver kept pointing out when people criticized him before the election that he was giving Trump too big of a chance of winning.

Real Clear Politics did a nice article on this subject on November 12 and after this article came out, the final results in many of these swing states moved even closer than indicated in this column to the RCP final average: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/art...ts_132333.html

[shocker3]

Oh and I will add that Jill Stein is delusional (Actually I think she is just taking advantage of the situation to raise money and bring attention to herself and the Green Party). There are only 2 states that even merit a possible recount: Michigan and New Hampshire. In Michigan, Trump won by .2% and in New Hampshire Clinton won by .2%. Those are the only states were there is any reasonable chance (albeit a very small one) that the results could be overturned by a recount. And even if the results were overturned in Michigan it is not enough to give Clinton the presidency.

In Wisconsin and PA, Trump won by .8% of the vote. As close as that is, that margin is beyond statistically what any recount could change.

I voted for Clinton, so I am not saying this as a Trump supporter trying to downplay these recounts. I have been involved in many election recounts over the years, so I am very familiar with this subject. One of them after 5 recounts, a judge looking at the ballots and a legislative committee looking at the ballots, the race was deemed tied and was decided by the candidates picking backgammon chips (3 months after election day).

[MoValley John]

All any of what you have posted indicates that polls are not accurate, the very margin of error built into polls makes them unreliable, pundits can't be trusted to accurately interpret polls, ergo, polls are a worthless tool.

I try as hard as I can to ignore polls, but during the election cycle, they are everywhere. Polls are reported on the nightly news as fact. Results of polling data influence voters and are used to dissuade those on the losing side of the poll from even showing up to vote.

Polls have become dangerous, they have become evil. Polls aren't news, but are being reported as such. Lastly, even though they may have fallen "within the margin of error" when polls in every single midwest battleground found Clinton the winner, yet Trump won every single state, regardless of margin of error, the polls were wrong.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

All any of what you have posted indicates that polls are not accurate, the very margin of error built into polls makes them unreliable, pundits can't be trusted to accurately interpret polls, ergo, polls are a worthless tool.

That's complete B.S.

A tape measure isn't accurate to within 1/128" (at least not when used by any human being I've met), but that doesn't mean it is a worthless tool. It just means it is a useful tool, but with limits.

The RCP national average ended up being off by 1.3%. Go ahead and complain about a few states that had bad polling, but the national polling made it clear that voting would be close, and it was.

Heck, go pick on those Ohio pollsters if you want, but picking on the whole concept is just silly.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Polls were off, don't kid yourself. The polling was done state by state, just as in the electoral college. The polls were off badly in Pn, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida.

No, not all polling was done state by state. Much was done nationally, and it was fairly accurate.

Also...

RCP Florida Average - Trump +0.2%
Actual Florida Results - Trump +1.2%

I'd hardly call that "off badly".

[jdshock]

Oh and I will add that Jill Stein is delusional (Actually I think she is just taking advantage of the situation to raise money and bring attention to herself and the Green Party). There are only 2 states that even merit a possible recount: Michigan and New Hampshire. In Michigan, Trump won by .2% and in New Hampshire Clinton won by .2%. Those are the only states were there is any reasonable chance (albeit a very small one) that the results could be overturned by a recount. And even if the results were overturned in Michigan it is not enough to give Clinton the presidency.

In Wisconsin and PA, Trump won by .8% of the vote. As close as that is, that margin is beyond statistically what any recount could change.

I voted for Clinton, so I am not saying this as a Trump supporter trying to downplay these recounts. I have been involved in many election recounts over the years, so I am very familiar with this subject. One of them after 5 recounts, a judge looking at the ballots and a legislative committee looking at the ballots, the race was deemed tied and was decided by the candidates picking backgammon chips (3 months after election day).

I don't think any of the relevant parties believe it will change the outcome of the election or really even a single state. If the re-count were to show that there was even some chance that fraud occurred in a state like Wisconsin, it will really help the democrats' narrative in 2020.

[Eric]

They just need to STFU about the recount. Cheetoh would've been doing the same thing had he lost. It's a non-issue.

[MoValley John]

I don't think any of the relevant parties believe it will change the outcome of the election or really even a single state. If the re-count were to show that there was even some chance that fraud occurred in a state like Wisconsin, it will really help the democrats' narrative in 2020.

I guess that's backfiring.

[MoValley John]

Michigan recount not going well...... In Clinton stronghold. Paper ballots don't match computer which doesn't match logbooks. Michael Moore jumps on bandwagon early, but this really doesn't bode well democrats. At all.

[MoValley John]

Trump gaining ground in Wisconsin.

http://wbay.com/2016/12/06/recount-results-day-6/

Voter fraud? Anywhere? Nope. I think Jill Stein is fleecing supporters.

[SB Shock]

No, not all polling was done state by state. Much was done nationally, and it was fairly accurate.

Also...

RCP Florida Average - Trump +0.2%
Actual Florida Results - Trump +1.2%

I'd hardly call that "off badly".

LA Times poll was on it

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-trump-polls-20161109-story.html