Trump

[jcdshocker]

"Sparkies or Wire Heads" man talk about racist, you are pathetic.

Do the math the all they need are 270 electorical college votes to win and there about 220 to 240 in the bag at the start. President Hillary has a certain ring to it, Edmund would be so proud.

Use spell check once in a while. It will do wonders for you.

[SB Shock]

Trump relatve to Romney

[Kung Wu]

First he is unelectable.

Not electable?



That's a screen shot of his rally, filled to max capacity, in Lowell, Massachusetts. Hillary will get an occasional big crowd, but this is stunning and it's in an area that is a Democrat stronghold.

[SB Shock]

Yes that is exactly what I've said.

What?!?!

Did I understand you correctly that you "like and applaud 16 trillion debt and little to show for it?"

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

What negative consequences do you foresee?

give me substantive reasoning beyond he has a flamboyant delivery as to why he's bad, or at least worse than Hillary as a President.

I see that the last several days the discussion here has focused on whether conservative critics dislike Trump's style or his substance. Here's my take as a "Trump-hater".

I would like to avoid WW3
ISIS, Al Qaeda, the Taliban, etc. are all dangerous, but they are limited in their ability to impact the larger world by their relatively small size. There may have been millions of Muslims across the Middle East who, to varying degrees, cheered on 9/11, but a very small percentage of those cheering ever actually did anything substantive to assist terrorism. They are like bandwagon KU fans who bought a T-Shirt at Wal-Mart and watch games on ESPN from their parent’s basement. They tweet about KU’s win over OU last night, but in reality they went to bed mid-way through the 2nd half and didn’t even know it went to 3 overtimes until they got to work at Burger King this morning and heard about it from their head burger flipper. They aren’t Bill Self, Mario Chalmers, Brady Morningstar, or even the towel boy. They say they love KU, but they aren’t committed to the cause in any substantial way. The went to one game at Allen Fieldhouse in 2011 with free tickets… left with 7:58 to go in a tie game because they needed to get home in time to catch the new episode of the Bachelor.

OK… where was I?

Under Hillary, we probably see a lot of the status quo regarding terrorism. We probably don’t make any significant strides toward defeating them, but we probably don’t do anything to make things substantially worse.

Under Trump, the middle school bully would be given a worldwide pulpit. No longer just a loudmouth jerk of an American, he would be THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES! If the last decade has taught us anything, it is that the Middle East is a tricky balancing act. Evil, yet stable, regimes are often preferable to the results that riots and uprisings have brought. Also, the continual infighting between various Muslim groups across the region is a benefitial distraction for America, as it keeps them from uniting under a common theme of hatred for the west. Any number of scenarios would be possible, but it frightens me to think of how Trump could, whether by mere speech, or in combination with policy proposals, becoming a galvanizing figure, bringing together different groups of extremist Muslims in support of a common enemy. I am not using hyperbole when I say that it is Trump, not Hillary, who is most likely to contribute towards WW3.

Let me clarify and say that I do not think this worst case scenario is anything close to a guarantee with Trump as president, but I think it is within the realm of possibility. The last thing the world needs right now is to push the extreme, but not quite yet terrorist, Muslims off the edge of whatever little bit of sanity they currently are clinging to. Neither do we need to assist in helping conflicting factions unite against a common enemy. As terrible as Hillary is, she has enough sense to see this. I am not convinced that Trump, and his huge ego, can see past his own self interests whatsoever.

I think crony capitalism is a huge problem
Trump is built on crony deals. His entire fortune has been invested in projects that take advantage of government power to give him the upper hand over those less powerful and less connected. He is the ultimate scumbag rich guy that gives the majority of honest and hardworking rich folks a bad name. I do not believe for one second that Trump suddenly wants to work “for the people”. Trump cares for no one but himself, is running for the presidency for himself, and I believe would be solely focused on using the Presidency for his own gain. His PR campaign now, and the PR he would do as president, would claim he is working for the good of the country, but then, just as it is now, it would be a filthy lie.

I believe Trump is a liberal at heart, but willing to say anything that helps promote his interests. Trump thinks being President is good for Trump, so he’s willing to say “conservative” things as an end to those means. He’s merely saying whatever he thinks his audience wants to hear. Interestingly, much of what he says appeals to racists, nativists, and extreme bigots more than it does more traditional conservatives like me.
For many years Trump promoted a single payer system and said we need to make our system “a lot like Canada”. I believe Trump’s ego would relish the opportunity to make powerful decisions. Lack of constitutional authority to wield such power would not stop him any more than it has stopped Obama.
For many years Trump proposed a “one-time net-worth tax”. This is a dangerous liberal idea. To even suggest such a thing shows, in my opinion, a worldview completely antithetical to the conservative beliefs I hold.
Trump voted for Obama for President a mere 7 years ago. Somehow I’m supposed to believe he’s totally gone all conservative since then?

In a crisis, assuming a Republican led Congress, I prefer a moronic power-hungry Democrat in the White House to a moronic power-hungry Republican, all else being equal.
Say the world economy tanks. Unemployment skyrockets. People start to get desperate. It is times like these that the world is at the biggest risk to the rise of powerful, evil leaders rising on a platform of utopian promises. Both Hillary and Trump would be extremely dangerous leaders in such a scenario. I could see both looking to grab significant power (insert Star Wars reference here) similar to the Emperor's "temporary" powers in those nasty disgraces to the movie franchise that are Episodes 1 thru 3. If faced with such a situation, I would hope that the republican led Congress would block such a power grab, regardless of who was in the White House. Due to the political nature of R's vs D's never wanting to give each other anything, I feel like the R's would do everything in their power to stop Hillary from gaining "crisis powers". With Trump in the white house, I would be a little more nervous that the R's in congress might be more willing to go along with a crazy power grab.

I think Trump as a Republican President would have significant negative consequences for the party.
I am convinced that Trump, should he win the Republican nomination, will get stomped I the general election by Hillary. However, if he were to somehow win the general, I think his presidency would do huge damage to the republican brand. In statewide elections, republicans have done very well in the last decade. I think President Hilary would help to continue that trend, while President Trump would start to reverse it.

Conclusion
If I had to place a bet, I would bet Trump would be a better president than Hillary. “Less terrible” might be a more accurate way to put it. Neither would be good. However:

• I cannot stomach to vote for such a morally bankrupt scumbag of an individual as Trump. I utterly despise the man.
• I am not convinced that “better than expectations Trump” would be a significant upgrade over Hillary.
• I am convinced that “worse than expectations Trump” could be much worse than Hillary.
• Over the past decade, conservatives have continually seized more and more control of state offices. I believe President Trump would reverse this trend. I believe President Hillary would help ensure it continues for years to come.

From a big pictures perspective, I see nothing to convince me to hold my nose and put Trump on my ballot. If we are given Trump vs Hillary, I will vote 3rd party.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

What?!?!

Did I understand you correctly that you "like and applaud 16 trillion debt and little to show for it?"

He was being sarcastic and saying you misunderstood him.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

Not electable?



That's a screen shot of his rally, filled to max capacity, in Lowell, Massachusetts. Hillary will get an occasional big crowd, but this is stunning and it's in an area that is a Democrat stronghold.

Entertainment value. Hillary is boring to listen to, even if you like her politics. Trump is entertaining, even if you hate him. Also, there is no denying that Trump has a base of die-hard supporters. The problem is, Hillary has a much larger base of less enthusiastic, but still going to show up and vote for her, supporters.

Trump will not be President unless Hillary gets snared in a truly impactful scandal in the next 10 months.

[Ta Town Shocker]

I saw on the news Trump is making a big deal about Bill Clinton's infidelity. Seems I was watching a documentary on Trump a few weeks back and an affair he had with a pageant queen ended his first marriage. Also, he's been married 3 times. He's exactly the one I want to look up to...

[Kung Wu]

From a big pictures perspective, I see nothing to convince me to hold my nose and put Trump on my ballot. If we are given Trump vs Hillary, I will vote 3rd party.

I haven't read this completely (yet), but most of it. Thanks for the first anti-Trump post that I have seen with substance. I disagree with some of it and agree with some of it. For the most part where we disagree is that you are taking an extreme view of Trump, so our differences are mainly a matter of degree more than opinion. I'll finish reading tomorrow if I can find time and elaborate. I'll also explain why he can whip Hillary and why right wingers like him -- and it has nothing to do with race.

[Kung Wu]

Entertainment value. Hillary is boring to listen to, even if you like her politics. Trump is entertaining, even if you hate him. Also, there is no denying that Trump has a base of die-hard supporters. The problem is, Hillary has a much larger base of less enthusiastic, but still going to show up and vote for her, supporters.

Trump will not be President unless Hillary gets snared in a truly impactful scandal in the next 10 months.

I think you might be mistaken ...

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/06/supporters-seek-to-persuade-democrats-to-ditch-and-switch-for-donald-trump/?_r=0

Ditch and switch!

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

If he's the nominee, Trump will definitely pull in some registered Democrats to vote for him in the general election. He's got a lot of liberal in him, so this should be no surprise.

However, I can 100% guarantee you that for every Obama voter that turns to Trump, multiple Romney voters will vote Hillary or 3rd party.

Looking at the popular vote, measured in millions...
2008 - Obama beat McCain 69 to 60
2012 - Obama beat Romney 66 to 61

Trump will not get 60 million votes in the general and Hillary will. I guarantee it. Honestly, I doubt Trump would get 50 million. Trump vs Hillary would be a landslide.

[jdshock]

I think you might be mistaken ...

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/01/06/supporters-seek-to-persuade-democrats-to-ditch-and-switch-for-donald-trump/?_r=0

Ditch and switch!

Despite that article, I just don't think Trump has a chance in the general election. I feel like democrats would switch for the primaries to vote for Trump so Hillary has an easier time in the general election than she would against someone else.

[SB Shock]

If he's the nominee, Trump will definitely pull in some registered Democrats to vote for him in the general election. He's got a lot of liberal in him, so this should be no surprise.

However, I can 100% guarantee you that for every Obama voter that turns to Trump, multiple Romney voters will vote Hillary or 3rd party.

Looking at the popular vote, measured in millions...
2008 - Obama beat McCain 69 to 60
2012 - Obama beat Romney 66 to 61

Trump will not get 60 million votes in the general and Hillary will. I guarantee it. Honestly, I doubt Trump would get 50 million. Trump vs Hillary would be a landslide.

What is your basis for making "100% guarantee" and such definitive statements? There is no such thing as 100% or a "sure thing". Not saying your prediction wouldn't come true, but the data available at this moment (that I have seen) doesn't support it and anybody who makes a "sure thing" argument either doesn't understand mathematics or is posturing.

[Play Angry]

I'm excited for the forthcoming full-throated advocacy of a candidate who:

-Previously described himself in the run-up to Bush vs. Gore as "very pro choice" only to conveniently change his mind in 2011 at CPAC as he kicked off the political phase of his career

-Has been a long-time advocate for single-payer healthcare (see also).

-Categorically opposes free trade while advocating for tariffs and similar barriers.

-Slammed John McCain's status as a war hero "because he was captured."

-Proposes ending birthright citizenship (nevermind the, ahem, constitutional difficulties inherent here).

-Insists he will not only build a wall along the Mexican border, but that Mexico will pay for it.

-Loves a good period joke aimed at anchorwomen.

-Really, really loves a good joke aimed at reporters with physical disabilities.

-Advocates a total ban on entry to the U.S. for all Muslims, Constitution be damned.

-Is the only candidate for whom Vladimir Putin has high praise.


The list goes on and on and on and on. Trump is excellent at tapping into the anger and frustration of middle and lower class whites who are losing their "status" in society due to irreversible demographic trends. Anyone on team red who is buying his line of B.S. while passing over other viable candidates who are (at least more) sincerely conservative and far less damaging to the brand is giving in to simple, base emotions IMO.

Republicans used to be very good at framing arguments around core principles and intellectual ideology in national elections. We are trending strongly in the opposite direction if we nominate Trump IMO.

[Jamar Howard 4 President]

What is your basis for making "100% guarantee" and such definitive statements? There is no such thing as 100% or a "sure thing". Not saying your prediction wouldn't come true, but the data available at this moment (that I have seen) doesn't support it and anybody who makes a "sure thing" argument either doesn't understand mathematics or is posturing.

My 100% guarantee was meant as nothing more than a "I'm absolutely convinced in my mind". I think I've given plenty of reasoning to explain how I reached my conclusion.

You are correct that I have not proved this 100% figure to be accurate the way scientist can 100% promise that an apple will fall down, not up, from a tree. Consider my guarantee the same as if I said "I 100% guarantee WSU will not be playing in the play-in round in St. Louis this year". It is a statement that is far from mathematically verifiable, but my point is, I absolutely believe it to be true.