Trump

[jocoshock]

How about we HAMMER those that hire illegals more severely? They would be less likely to come if jobs weren't being offered.

Enforce the laws on Americans first? That would be un-American.

[Kung Wu]

A great, succinct summary of why I often hate politics, and don't feel like I can get behind any of the candidates.

Great realization, but bad attitude. Once you work through the stages of denial, anger, negotiating, depression, you'll see that the best bet is acceptance: Get behind them ALL, because anyone is better than Hillary! ;)

[SHOCKvalue]

Enforce the laws on Americans first? That would be un-American.

Hillary agrees.

[shockmonster]

Because that makes just to damn much sense. And also mexicans are rapists and murderers

If Repubs lose Senate, Dems won't go for it.

[jocoshock]

That's another example of letting the government do it's job.

The vast majority of illegals are using copies of legitimate IDs, and when submitted to e-Verify they are not being told they are fake (they aren't fake, but the system also isn't reporting that Jose Jiminez just took his 50th job this month). If the government does not make a concerted effort to verify the legitimacy of an ID, and inform the business, then how is the business supposed to know who is illegal and who isn't? The e-Verify system doesn't even require a PHOTO of the person. The government isn't even trying.

But ... on the flip side, the illegals work hard and cannot fall back on "unemployment". So at the lower end of the income spectrum, because of overgenerous welfare benefits, Americans don't give a crap about their jobs and actually hope to be fired so that they can go home and sit on their ass and collect a government check. The illegal works hard because he doesn't have that welfare check to fall back on. So ... the businesses want the Mexican dude that will work hard and be reliable and they aren't incentivized to press e-Verify to figure out if they have an illegal alien hiring problem.

This is an example of how welfare + illegal immigration is a disaster for Americans and a streamlined guest worker program becomes an important component of the solution.

In other words, it's easier to hire illegals. Cheaper, work harder, and both systems (immigration and welfare) constitute a labor cost subsidy to American business. This is why the problem WILL NEVER be solved.

[shockmonster]

How about we HAMMER those that hire illegals more severely? They would be less likely to come if jobs weren't being offered.

If Repubs lose Senate, Dems won't go for it.

[jocoshock]

Hillary agrees.

Both sides agree privately...

[jocoshock]

If Repubs lose Senate, Dems won't go for it.

Republicans going after businesses? Right....

[Play Angry]

Good question. I can't say what ANY of our candidates would do. Here's a few thoughts on things that would help, off the cuff:

Start by allowing ICE to start enforcing the laws on the books.

Create a culture of cooperation between Homeland Security and border states' LEO, instead of the anti-state LEO stance that Obama has taken.

Make sure that the criteria for deportations of criminals vs release of criminals back into the US population would be substantially tightened up -- probably institute a one-strike policy.

Increase technology along the border to assist in catching crossings, and then once they are caught have a program in place to immediately return them instead of releasing them into the US population with a "notice to appear in court" that is NEVER complied with.

There's plenty more that can be done ...

These are some good thoughts and I agree with a lot of them, although I think implementation is going to be really challenging.

The one-strike policy is especially intriguing. I wonder what the threshold would be - most, if not all, felonies certainly. Probably not traffic/parking infractions and things that involve a similarly small fine? I'm guessing the eventual legislation on this would draw a line somewhere.

One small note - I believe right now if someone is caught within a certain number of miles of the border either by ICE or is turned over to ICE within that same zone, then they are automatically sent back without release. Exceptions are made for unattached minors of a certain age though.

I do think Cruz/Rubio would embrace most of the informal mechanisms that could make a difference - appointment of stricter immigration judges, jawboning policy and enforcement within the federal departments, etc. No idea to what degree their approach would differ from Trump's since his focus is almost singular on the wall and some far more extreme "solutions" like deporting American-born children of illegals, as he floated in two of the debates this Fall (particularly abhorrent considering the laws that enabled the anchor baby concept no longer do so). Rubio's willingness to consider limited amnesty certainly stands in stark contrast to Trump's proposal to deport all illegal immigrants though, so that is probably an area where you could see a real difference.

Something I wonder about from an economic standpoint is the jobs, as you mentioned. How many full-time jobs would be created for citizens in the absence of the immigrants? I honestly have no idea. A huge number of illegals have government-issued tax ID numbers and actually pay FICA/fed/state/local taxes, but obviously many of the ones who work exclusively for daily/weekly cash under the table do not. Since most do not have benefits, they are obviously far cheaper to employ from both a wages and ancillary costs standpoint. Does that mean they are 20% as expensive as a non-union American citizen full-time employee with benefits? 40%? 60%? I dunno. Then you have to factor in the smaller margins from lower output that many of those businesses would see due to the higher costs of employment (hiring 3 American citizens vs. hiring 5 illegal immigrants, for example) - this probably reduces the job pool by a good chunk as well since it has a similar effect on the owner as a giant hike on the minimum wage would. At the end of the day, I am pretty sure the talking point in a lot of Trump speeches that 10 million less illegal immigrants = 10 million more American jobs doesn't add up...I would guess maybe 2-3 million, nearly all in the low-skill, low wage category and almost none in manufacturing.

Mostly just thinking out loud. I am all for stricter border enforcement, but I do wonder if the economic impact of those already here on the working class is exponentially overstated as a support for mass deportation.

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

I'm more worried about companies outsourcing jobs (both service and manufacturing) than I am with an illegal citizen taking the position. I dont understand the logic of "get rid of them so we can their jobs"

[Kung Wu]

I'm more worried about companies outsourcing jobs (both service and manufacturing) than I am with an illegal citizen taking the position. I dont understand the logic of "get rid of them so we can their jobs"

This was discussed elsewhere. We have LEGALLY outsourced about 2.4 million jobs to date. We are ILLEGALLY outsourcing about 8.5 million jobs at the moment. Illegally outsourced jobs are 3.5x the problem of legally outsourced jobs. And that does not take into consideration that we are enabling the illegal population to export $50 billion ANNUALLY out of the country, that our jails are burdened with violent illegal aliens disproportionate to the population, and the fact that the birth rate of the illegal alien population exceeds the rest of the country's birth rates (meaning the problem is compounding EVEN IF you shut down the border completely).

[SHOCKvalue]

I don't know who pisses me off more: Trump or the TFL's who show up to protest his speeches. Man, that's a toughie. I'm going to go with the leftist protestors who main desire in life is to muzzle people with which they disagree. It is okay to have a difference of opinion, even if that opinion is bad. It is called "tolerance" which is a word I could swear the average liberal is familiar with.

[Play Angry]

the fact that the birth rate of the illegal alien population exceeds the rest of the country's birth rates (meaning the problem is compounding EVEN IF you shut down the border completely).

This part doesn't make sense since their children are actually U.S. citizens though.

Tangentially related, we desperately need a higher birth rate than what Gen X and millenials are producing to keep our economic engine from sputtering out. Wall Street Journal put out a great series of articles late last year, some of which are available for reading here, here, here, and here. The best way to import those with the higher replacement rates is the question - the current system is too inefficient.

[Kung Wu]

This part doesn't make sense since their children are actually U.S. citizens though.

In the context of lost jobs to _current_ citizens, it makes a tremendous difference. In the future, they will become the Americans without jobs, getting a paycheck.

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

This part doesn't make sense since their children are actually U.S. citizens though.

Tangentially related, we desperately need a higher birth rate than what Gen X and millenials are producing to keep our economic engine from sputtering out. Wall Street Journal put out a great series of articles late last year, some of which are available for reading here, here, here, and here. The best way to import those with the higher replacement rates is the question - the current system is too inefficient.

But what are millenials and gen-x'rs kids going to work? Manufacturing in America and Wichita specifically has gone down the shitter. the big thing now is "teach kids its okay to build things, you dont have to be a doctor or a lawyer" I agree 100% but when companies are sending jobs overseas because its cheaper they're forced to go the service route which obviously pays alot less but doesnt do much as production does. Theres multiple reasons for that and I'm sure everyone has an opinion on it but regardless - if my generation (I'm 35) and the generation after me experienced a baby boom I'm not sure how exactly that will help until the other factors are fixed (as a caveat I havent read the articles you linked which I will do so in some fashion of spare time)