Election Predictions

[Guest]

Why not, right? Feel free to post predictions here and then check back Wednesday morning to high five or gnash teeth together. You can tinker with various swing state results and view current polling here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...llege_map.html

These 11 states are still in toss-up category on RealClearPolitics (electoral votes in parentheses):

Nevada (6)
Colorado (9)
Iowa (6)
Wisconsin (10)
Michigan (16)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
New Hampshire (4)
Virginia (13)
North Carolina (15)
Florida (29)

Before allocating these to either candidate, Obama enjoys 201 electoral votes and Romney 191 based on states deemed "safe" for either candidate.

I'll kick it off by predicting the following:

Nevada (6)- Obama- Large demographic shift over last decade makes this a tough one to turn red going forward
Colorado (9)- Obama- Marijuana bill on the ballot kicks this one into blue territory
Iowa (6)- Romney- How has this state stayed mostly blue this long?
Wisconsin (10)- Romney- Paul Ryan gets the assist in a narrow win here
Michigan (16)- Obama- Detroit hasn't shrank quite enough yet for this to happen, check back after it physically implodes and sinks to the depths of financial hell
Ohio (18)- Obama- Court decisions granting unions more power to influence members' votes has been underdiscussed this cycle
Pennsylvania (20)- Obama- This is always a near-miss for the red team
Florida (29)- Romney- Enough Cubans to offset the Jews
North Carolina (15)- Romney- I've had to endure more campaign commercials and robocalls living here than I'd wish on my worst enemy.
Virginia (13)- Romney- Guessing this one ends with split-ticket results: Romney eeks out a W, Allen loses by an equally close number
New Hampshire (4)- Romney- Probably wrong here but playing a hunch.

Final tally: Obama 270, Romney 268...closest electoral college result since the joke of an election in 1876.

Hope I'm wrong. Attack, agree, criticize, editorialize away.

[Smooth007]

US Popular Vote %'s for each???

[GoShockers89]

US Popular Vote %'s for each???

Romney 49.4%
Obama 49.2%

So it is written.

[Kung Wu]

This is how it's going down. I can't decide on Ohio, so I will say it breaks against the incumbent and goes Romney. Either way Romney wins the way I see it:

Colorado (9) - Romney
Florida (29) - Romney
Iowa (6) - Romney
Virginia (13) - Romney
Wisconsin (10) - Romney
North Carolina (15) - Romney

New Hampshire (4) - Obama
Nevada (6) - Obama
Pennsylvania (20) - Obama
Michigan (16) - Obama

Ohio (18) - ?

Obama = 172 + 12 + 53 = 237 + 10 = 247 + 18 = 265
Romney = 167 + 24 + 15 = 206 + 67 = 273

Or

Edit: My final prediction is this one.
=======================
Obama = 172 + 12 + 53 = 237 + 10 = 247
Romney = 167 + 24 + 15 = 206 + 67 = 273 + 18 = 291

[WuDrWu]

I think Colorado, Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina for Romney.

Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Iowa for Obama.

That will mean it (I think) it will come down to New Hampshire and Virgina, and Obama wins by a narrow margin in each. Now if Romney finds a way to carry Virgina then New Hampshire gets the brightest light of all time on their tiny state, and that count is going to be tight either way.

[kcshocker11]

I think Colorado, Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina for Romney.

Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Iowa for Obama.

That will mean it (I think) it will come down to New Hampshire and Virgina, and Obama wins by a narrow margin in each. Now if Romney finds a way to carry Virgina then New Hampshire gets the brightest light of all time on their tiny state, and that count is going to be tight either way.

Agree except add Wisconsin and Colorado to Obama column, New Hamp to Romney and Virginia to Obama.

[shox1989]

I am guessing Colorado, Florida and North Carolina for Romney.

Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa, Virginia and New Hampshire for Obama.

I think that leaves Romney with (191 + 9 + 29 + 15) 243 and Obama with 294.

It appears to me that the popular vote will be a dead heat with one or the other winning by a small margin. Since it looks like Obama will win the electoral vote, I guess I will go with Obama winning the poplular vote by .1%.

I could see Colorado going to Obama, RCP has Obama up 1.5% there (the same as they show Romney ahead in FL) I just have a feeling that Gary Johnson is going to draw a lot of the pot head vote there tipping the state to Romney.

I could also easily see VA going to Romney, but the latest polls all seem to give Obama a small lead there after Romney lead earlier. So it appears that VA is probably moving away from Romney.

I don't see WI going to Romney, the latest RCP has Obama over 50% there. So even if all of the undecideds go to Romney he couldn't win there (unless the polls are wrong, or Romney exceeds turnout expectations which you never know). I actually think he would have a better chance of winning PA than WI, but I don't see either one happening.

[shoxplode]

People are putting too much stock in polls grossly over sampling democrats using 2008 models. There has been a 8 point shift since 2008 favoring the Republicans. I guess we will all find out soon enough.

[GoShockers89]

I could be wrong, but isn't Rasmussen literally almost the only one who actively filters his likely voter samples through a party lens?

What I mean by that is, doesn't almost every single poll sample according to demographics (male/female, age, race) and then go back afterwards and construct what the sample's Democrat/Republican split was? Whereas Rasmussen uses it in his initial filtering, along with age, race and gender.

I am sure SB would know.

[shoxplode]

Has anybody heard of the Redskin Rule? If the Redskins win at home before the election, the incumbent party wins the presidential race, 17 out of 18 times going back to 1940. If the Redskins lose at home, the challenger prevails. In the 18 presidential elections that have taken place since the Redskins moved to Washington in 1937, 17 have been predicted by the team's performance at its final home game prior to the election. Since the Redskins lost to the Carolina Panthers Romney wins. It's really that simple.

[shoxplode]

Here is where the polling is confusing. They tell you whoever wins independents wins elections. Independents are how you define a swing state, right? A swing state is where the independents determine the outcome, correct? That's why so many states are now swing states, because the independents are up for grabs. So Romney's winning the independents in every poll, double digits for the most part. Why are so many of these swing states expected to go Obama? Don't forget the enthusiasm carrying over from the 2010 midterms and you have a case for a Romney landslide victory.

[SB Shock]

Here is where the polling is confusing. They tell you whoever wins independents wins elections. Independents are how you define a swing state, right? A swing state is where the independents determine the outcome, correct? That's why so many states are now swing states, because the independents are up for grabs. So Romney's winning the independents in every poll, double digits for the most part. Why are so many of these swing states expected to go Obama? Don't forget the enthusiasm carrying over from the 2010 midterms and you have a case for a Romney landslide victory.

That is the quandry.

http://www.redstate.com/2012/11/05/did-cnnorc-just-bid-barack-obama-bon-voyage/

Red State has a good analysis of where they took a CNN poll for Ohio and broke it down based on how they thought the turnout would be and show that there is virtually no way that Obama could win unless they have +11 turnout. But if this really works out - how could so many pollster be wrong - unless they have just become shrills (for the democrats). I still think that most pollster are trying to get it right, in fact want to get it right. If Romney does wins big - nobody will/should give any of these pollsters any credibility.

[DoubleJayAlum]

Romney takes Florida and North Carolina, but loses the rest.

Hell, Obama may well get the electoral vote for Nebraska's second district like he did in the last election.

My two big predictions: the election will decided relatively early and I will hate the results.

[ShockerGorilla]

Obama will lead until the Romney voters get off work.

[WuDrWu]

The latest data from the Florida Secretary of State's office shows that Democrats have cast 1,915,630 votes – giving them a lead against Republicans, who have cast 1,747,977 votes.

Taking a reasonable number from the CNN poll, those votes will translate as follows: Obama 1,837,328 Romney 1,826,279 for the President by a razor thin margin of 11,000+. Almost nobody thinks same day voting will break for the President. These numbers are bad for the President although in fairness, not many think Obama will keep Florida anyway.