Romney VP

[SB Shock]

Yes, he's a political analyst now. Some of his opinions are hit and miss -- who's aren't -- but his poll interpretations and knowledge are outstanding.

Well he must have some super secret polling data that Romney is keeping very quiet, afraid that if it gets out will doom him because the public data looks bleak:

poll1.JPGpolls2.JPGpolls3.JPG

[shoxplode]

Any media organization can commission a poll. The quality of the results depends upon the professionalism of the pollster conducting the survey. Check out Rasmussen and they will have a different outlook on the race. The Reagan/Carter polls also had it close at this point in the season. Of course Romney is no Reagan.

[Kung Wu]

Well he must have some super secret polling data that Romney is keeping very quiet, afraid that if it gets out will doom him because the public data looks bleak:

Yes, I am sure he has tools available to him beyond RealClearPolitics.

But take your graph and expand it out to, say March, and look at the momentum.

And this guy hasn't chosen a Veep yet. That's a whole new level of campaign regen if he chooses wisely and could certainly change the electoral outlook.

[SB Shock]

Yes, I am sure he has tools available to him beyond RealClearPolitics.

RCP just documents all the polls out there. Unless he is working for somebody officially and doing his own polling he has the same information that we do. Five-ThirtyEight (even though it is liberal) has more academic analysis and does not show Romney gaining ground either.

But take your graph and expand it out to, say March, and look at the momentum.

poll4.JPG

Here is to March - if you notice Obama is pulling away. Romney has narrowed a couple of times, but can never sustain any momentum.

And this guy hasn't chosen a Veep yet. That's a whole new level of campaign regen if he chooses wisely and could certainly change the electoral outlook.

Yeah, his VP is going to be important because Romney is not being embraced. If he make the right VP choice I could see it shaking things up. Now it is still Olympics, pre-convention, dog days of summer so maybe people are just not paying attention.

NBC/The Weekly Standard Believe the finalist are:

Portman
Ryan
Pawlenty
Christie

Ryan or Christie would be interesting. Pawlenty or Portman .....gag me. Who do you like out of that 4?

[SB Shock]

Any media organization can commission a poll. The quality of the results depends upon the professionalism of the pollster conducting the survey. Check out Rasmussen and they will have a different outlook on the race.

Each pollster organization has it biases. Some republican, some democrat (and in at least one case FAKE, i.e. Strategic Vision). Rasmussen does not have that strong of track record and has been shown to be biases Republican and has had larger error in their performance - so you have to keep that in mind. Quinnipac has had a good record with low bias and less error.

[wu_shizzle]

I find it hard to believe that Obama is separating himself from Romney after the gaffes he's made lately.

I'll put a little more stock in the polls after Labor Day.

[Aargh]

But please no boring white guy...

In politics, that's beginning to be an oxymoron. I'd be surprised if Romney can deliver a VP less boring than Al "Tree Stump" Gore.

The economy sucks, but it sucked before Obama was elected, so he may get a bit of a pass on that. The wars are winding down, and that's likely to give Obama a lot of votes. America is tired of war, and I think America is growing tired of the price we pay to attempt to be the world's police force. The appearance now is that Republicans start wars and Democrats end them. Doesn't matter if you agree or disagree, or even if that's right, that's a pretty easy conclusion to draw right now and Americans are famous for accepting easily drawn conclusions.

My 92-year-old mother is the most right-wing life-long conservative Republican you can imagine (she backed Michelle Bachmann because her husband could "pray away the gay") and she hates Romney. She'll vote for him, but she hates him.

Romney could be the worst thing the Republican party could do to further their agenda. The appearance that's been created to this point is that he's an extremely wealthy person who pays no taxes and only creates jobs overseas. The Republican agenda seems to be to cut taxes on the wealthy so that they will create jobs. It's obvious that the wealthy create jobs and the poor do not, but when those jobs are created overseas, it doesn't really attract voters looking for jobs. The only thing that Romney has going for him is that wealthy people all vote - and poor people don't.

It's going to be really easy to paint Romney as a "let them eat cake" candidate.

I'm all for small government and states' rights. The Republicans told me that's what they were going to give me. They lied.

I'm leaning toward a very unpopular political position. We have to reduce the national debt. Due to an illness, I've watched myself move from upper-middle-class to poverty level. I'm trying to get by on $900 a month of Social Security, and Obama wants to force me to pay $800 a month for insurance for myself and my wife. The property taxes on my house are a little over $100 a month. I'm not in much of a position to help reduce the national debt.

Brownback wanting to reduce taxes on businesses and increase sales taxes means I have even less buying ability with the reserves I've set aside for retirement. I'd be delighted to reduce taxes on businesses if that actually created jobs in America. If you want to see where the wealthy create jobs, watch Shark Tank. The multi-milloionaire investors ridicule any inventor who is not going to do the manufacturing in China.

Poor people can't help much in reducing the national debt. I know I'm unable to help out. Guess who that leaves? It's only the wealthy who are able to do anything significant to reduce the debt. The Socialism card gets played whenever anyone suggests they pay more, so that doesn't happen.

If the wealthy are trying to protect their money so their descendants can have it, if the U.S. economy collapses due to the debt, your heirs go down along with the rest of the country.

[shox1989]

It is not possible for Romney to be a worse President.

The problem is that a bad Romney presidency will hurt the Republicans. I am not saying he would be any worse than Obama, but at least a bad Obama presidency helps the Rs gain seats in Congress. The Dems would probably gain seats in Congress under a Romney presidency. After 4 more years of Obama the country should be ready for a better Republican.

[Kung Wu]

Here is to March - if you notice Obama is pulling away. Romney has narrowed a couple of times, but can never sustain any momentum.

Yeah, his VP is going to be important because Romney is not being embraced.

How do you look at that graph and say "Obama is pulling away"? I'm looking right at it, and the gap is clearly closing ever since March. Obama is trending down, and Romney -- without a Veep -- is trending upward. Romney is clearly being embraced and Obama is clearly losing ground.

In fact, go back a year (July '11 through Aug '11), and you'll see the exact same trend.

Edit: Are you just looking at the daily stats and ignoring the overall trend? That's the only explanation I can fathom for your comment.

[Capitol Shock II]

I left the polls Tuesday filling largely unsatisfied. I was very surprised at the turnout, the line was out the door in the middle of the afternoon. The election workers told me that they were already at 25% turnout for the election and were surprised that it was so high. I voted to show my disgust with the incumbents and moderates that have made a career out of putting us in the terrible hole we are in. I really wasn't able to show my displeasure in my vote. However, I felt like the turnout illustrated that many other people are feeling the same way and are eager to be heard. I hope the turnout is double in three months.

Finally, if Obama is re-elected it just shows that we've crossed the threshold and that the majority of our population has decided that public handouts, welfare, food stamps and selective success depending on your political affiliation are more desired than hard work, determination and individual self responsibility which has made our country exceptional. There's a chance we can turn this around but it gets slimmer by the day. Most families struggle mightily to pay back credit card debt of $5,000 to $10,000. Does anyone really think we as a country can pay back 16 trillion? Really? And who holds that note by the way, China for the most part. Not exactly an ally. So we pay them billions in interest each month and they turn around and spend it on their military while our politicians continue to borrow from them. Really?

Adding more quantitative easing and more borrowing is not the road to prosperity. And giving out benefits to people like a crack dealer to an addict is not the answer either. God help us.

[SB Shock]

How do you look at that graph and say "Obama is pulling away"? I'm looking right at it, and the gap is clearly closing ever since March. Obama is trending down, and Romney -- without a Veep -- is trending upward. Romney is clearly being embraced and Obama is clearly losing ground.

Look at the last month of polling. The gap is widening for Obama. Overall if u look at the big picture is Romney support is flat. Only thing that is changing is obama supporters our moving back and forth into the "undecided". 43-46% support is not being "embraced". I won't vote for obama - but I'm not sure I will vote for Romney either - I think there are plenty of conservatives with similiar feelings.

In fact, go back a year (July '11 through Aug '11), and you'll see the exact same trend.

Edit: Are you just looking at the daily stats and ignoring the overall trend? That's the only explanation I can fathom for your comment.

If you look at bush at similiar periods of time I think u will find he was trailing then when it came to make a choice the independents went back to bush. That is what I really can't fathom - why is obama even have lead? I thin the answere is it shows where our society is - the generation that came from the greatest generation is the most selfish generation and is not willing to make a sacrifice for their country.

[pinstripers]

Once upon a time, it was illegal to buy votes.

[shoxplode]

The Department of Political Science at Fordham University has Rasmussen along with Pew most accurately polling the result of the 2008 Presidential Election. Of 23 polling organizations, 17 overestimated Obama strength while 4 overestimated McCain. Pre-election projections for two organizations' final polls-Rasmussen and Pew- were perfectly in agreement with the actual election result.
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academ...20election.pdf

[SB Shock]

The Department of Political Science at Fordham University has Rasmussen along with Pew most accurately polling the result of the 2008 Presidential Election. Of 23 polling organizations, 17 overestimated Obama strength while 4 overestimated McCain. Pre-election projections for two organizations' final polls-Rasmussen and Pew- were perfectly in agreement with the actual election result.
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academ...20election.pdf

How did Rasmussen do in 2000, 2004, 2010?

Also what catches my attention is Pew and Rasmussen final polls were perfect. Wonder how much of change was there between their previous polls in the runup.

[SB Shock]

Edit: Are you just looking at the daily stats and ignoring the overall trend? That's the only explanation I can fathom for your comment.

Maybe this clears up what trends I'm looking at.

poll4.JPG