Tweet
For context, in 2020 Dems had 78% of the mail-in votes in PA.
-
Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille! -
The early vote #s for the GOP all over the country have been surprising. Including Kansas.
A question is if the early votes are "cannibalizing" day-of voting. I would guess some, but not all.Comment
-
Yeah cannibalization is my concern as well. It's tough to extrapolate anything though because of Covid's effect on the prior election.Originally posted by ABC View Post
Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
-
They are wheeling in their full boxes of Dem votes early this cycleComment
-
Just waiting for the 3:00 AM vote dump of hundreds of thousands of democrat votes.An “Old West” Texas analysis and summary of Mueller report and Congress’ efforts in one sentence:
"While we recognize that the subject did not actually steal any horses, he is obviously guilty of trying to resist being hanged for it."Comment
-
It's a border problem that Harris has a hand in creating, then passing the results of the border problem on to local governments and tax payers.Originally posted by C0|dB|00ded View PostComment
-
U-haul trailers have been filled with completed ballots in DC, and awaiting appropriate time to transport them to the battleground states for counting.Originally posted by JJClamdip View PostComment
-
Here is what feels true to me:
The R walk in vote will exceed the D walk in vote in all battleground states.
Based on that assumption then:
1) If Trump is already winning the early vote in a battleground state, he has likely already won it.
2) Just because Trump is losing the early vote in a battleground state, doesn't mean he is going to lose it.
That's a helluva good position to be in, if you're Trump.
If that's right then:
PA: Harris (61% to 30%)
NC: Tied - Declared winner by KW
GA: Trump (49% to 45%) - Declared winner by KW
AZ: Trump (42% to 36%) - Declared winner by KW
WI: Harris (36% to 22%) [way too early to make sense of]
MI: Harris (52% to 38%)
NV: Trump (40% to 36%) - Declared winner by KW
If any of this admitted poppy-cock were true, then Trump could lose PA and would only need one of MI or WI to win ... here's that map:
image.pngKung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
-
There's absolutely no question that a big portion of the GOP early voting is cannibalizing the vote on election day itself. My guess is 95% or more.
That being said, a greater early vote does allow the "ground game" to narrow their focus on those that haven't voted or need to be encouraged at the last minute. Resources are limited, so the more names they can check off the list (as already voted) makes getting one more "maybe" that much more likely.Comment
-
The above is poppy-cock because the early vote could still go against Trump in states he is currently winning. But it becomes less poppy-cock each day that he is still winning in each particular state.Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
-
Justification for premise above ...
In 2020 ... Pennsylvania (PA)- Democratic Walk-in Votes: ~24%
- Republican Walk-in Votes: ~76%
- Democratic Walk-in Votes: ~30%
- Republican Walk-in Votes: ~70%
- Democratic Walk-in Votes: ~36%
- Republican Walk-in Votes: ~64%
- Democratic Walk-in Votes: ~42%
- Republican Walk-in Votes: ~58%
- Democratic Walk-in Votes: ~28%
- Republican Walk-in Votes: ~72%
- Democratic Walk-in Votes: ~26%
- Republican Walk-in Votes: ~74%
- Democratic Walk-in Votes: ~38%
- Republican Walk-in Votes: ~62%
Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
-
Interesting. 95% is a lot higher than I would have thought, but we might think of a cannibalized vote differently.Originally posted by WuDrWu View PostKung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
-
The disparity with walk-in voting is likely another symptom of the paranoia festering in Trumpers' heads thx to a Stalin-esque quality disinformation campaign from DJ-Cheeto himself.Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
"I'm goin' drop muh vote off personally so those damned liberuls don't switch me to Kamabala BloJoB QuEEn!!!111
Or... it could just be that the average age of early voters skew VERY old for the Trumpers. Lost a lot of 'em in the pandemic from medical retardation/misinformation tho.
Comment
-
This part is true. The folks at the CDC that were telling people they were safe by social distancing 6 ft and wearing any old mask, probably killed a ton of people.Originally posted by C0|dB|00ded View PostLost a lot of 'em in the pandemic from medical retardation/misinformation tho.Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
-
Indeed. The 6 ft rule (in retrospect) was incorrect. Yet it was age-old guidance founded in science. Nobody at the beginning thought this insidious alien seed could/would approach the infectiousness of smallpox. I was spouting its airborne nature wayyy before anybody in the media was hinting at it due to some early, obscure reports I had read out of China. People were infecting others from opposite ends of the room and bus w/ limited exposure time.Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
As far as masks are concerned.......
Mask limits infection.. period. Better masks do it better, but some face covering will limit the "viral dose" received lowering the probability of severe outcomes... PERIOD. PERIOD. PERIOD. FFS... >>> !PERIOD! <<<.
As the science around the novel virus improved, so did the guidance. This is not DISinformation, it's merely wrong, in an honest fashion. What the Trumpers were spreading was DISinformation. And they are truly responsible for 100's of thousands of deaths IMO. I will believe that until the day I die. I saw the confusion and subsequent bad outcomes with my very own eyes. Terribly sad... evil.
And now we find ourselves in a country where half the population distrust their own doctor. THAT is going to lead to more unnecessary deaths.
Most people truly have NO idea the impact Trump has had on the life expectancy of his own followers. And they will gladly walk off the side of a cliff for him yet today. Mind-blowingly sad.
Comment
Comment