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Originally posted by Kung Wu
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It's like the 2016 comment from the Ragin Cajun, James Carville, late on election night. "When you're a Democrat and you're struggling to carry Virginia, there's no way you're carrying North Carolina". Clinton couldn't put Virginia in her column until very, very late in the night and by then PA and NC were out of reach for DEMs and her pathway to victory was all but closed.
The one possible fly in the ointment is NE-2. I'm sure most people realize NE and ME are the only 2 states that split their electoral votes. NE-2 or the Omaha area of NE has leaned very hard left of late. Biden carried NE-2 in 2020 roughly 52-46%. That is a sizable margin, and honestly no polling in this cycle suggests much of a change from those numbers. Harris is likely to keep that one very important electoral vote in the DEM column. That being said, if there's to be an "upset" somewhere, it would likely come from NE-2. Overall, Nebraska is an extremely conservative state (Trump +19 in 2020) but Biden's vote total was up almost 100K from 2016 (and still up almost 70K from 2012) while Trump's 2020 total was up (statewide) only about 60K. Yes, the Omaha area is more populous but not in those numbers. The 2020 get the vote out campaign/ballot harvesting paid huge dividends for the DEMs. Perhaps those numbers will continue, I don't know. But if they do not, they are most likely not to continue in a place like NE-2.
In 2020, roughly 330K votes were cast in NE-2. Here's where the numbers get a little tricky. There were (2020) about 495K registered voters in Douglas & Sarpy counties which make up NE-2. However, while all of Douglas County (Omaha) is in NE-2, only 31 of 52 precincts are in NE-2 and the breakdown of the numbers isn't readily available. Trump did not even cover registered GOP voters while Biden captured a huge chunk of the non partisan voters.
Douglas County Registered Voters 2020
Reg. GOP 132K
Reg DEM 144K
Reg NonPartisan 91K
2020 Results
Trump 119K
Biden 150K
FWIW, Trump carried the 31 precincts in Sarpy by about 10K votes.
The Dems got their vote out bigly in NE-2 in 2020. About 237K votes were cast early in those 2 counties (and I'm very much guessing at Sarpy totals, but I'm probably close). Now, early voting is up across the country. But in NE-2, Trump left a lot of meat on the bone in 2020. IF they get out their vote, and the ballot harvesting results are diminished by the DEMs a bit, AND some common sense DEMs in NE are saying enough is enough, then this could possibly flip. I'm not saying it will, but watch the early vote in Nebraska, specifically Douglas and Sarpy counties. That could give some interesting insight over the next week or so. Roughly half of the votes cast in 2020 in NE were by mail.
One last point that I cannot verify, one way or the other. Anyone in NE can vote by mail. But you must request a ballot. HOWEVER, in 2020, they sent ballot APPLICATIONS (not ballots themselves) to EVERY REGISTERED VOTER. There is no doubt this benefitted the DEMs, especially in Douglas and Sarpy counties. I cannot find where they did this in 2024. I THINK (don't know) that they reverted back to anyone can get a mail in ballot, but they have to ask for one first. They aren't being prompted.
30K is a big number for Trump to cover, especially since he doesn't change a lot of minds.
That being said, JD and Walz didn't go to the Cornhusker state for their health. Something, somebody, some polls are telling them it's closer than it might be. We'll see.
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