Russia-Ukraine War

[wichshock65]

After tossing out the knee-jerk "obvious" answer, and then sitting back and weighing the pros and cons; it's not so clear cut which scenario is better.

Come on, the answer is obvious. Do you have any idea what WstateU would give for a lifetime of wood?

[wufan]

Not really. NATO doesn't want to annihilate Russia. NATO didn't want to do before the invasion, or during, and they still won't after this is all over.

In fact the U.S., EU and NATO actually have tried to do everything that they could to integrate Russia into the world. NATO/EU still are trying to get Russia back on track with the world.

If the Ukraine is part of NATO, and Russia is attacking the Ukraine, what is NATOs response?

[SB Shock]

If the Ukraine is part of NATO, and Russia is attacking the Ukraine, what is NATOs response?

Russia really gets it ass kicked really "quick", instead of just getting it's ass kicked over weaks in a proxy war. But NATO not going to invade Russia.

BTW, open source intelligence has documented the Russian have at least lost 18% of their tanks in Ukraine.

[WuDrWu]

I hope (and pray) that if nothing else, Putin still possesses the brain power to realize that freaking Ukraine has handed him his ass on a platter....and that trying anything else is beyond foolhardy.

[pinstripers]

Come on, the answer is obvious. Do you have any idea what WstateU would give for a lifetime of wood?

.....just a weekend of wood.....

[wufan]

I hope (and pray) that if nothing else, Putin still possesses the brain power to realize that freaking Ukraine has handed him his ass on a platter....and that trying anything else is beyond foolhardy.

There was an interesting theory postulated on this:

Russia has internal control of their credit system. Putin did this intentionally before invading. He declined allowing the two eastern territories from becoming part of Russia several years ago intentionally so that he could “liberate” them now with the intention of also taking strategic resources in Ukraine. The loss of troops allows him to impose severe civilian casualties such that Ukraine will cede these resource rich territories. Putin strengthens Russia’s place as the oil producer for Europe AND removes the dollar as the oil reserve currency in the process.

Not saying I totally buy it, but I’m curious.

[N Crestway]

There was an interesting theory postulated on this:

Russia has internal control of their credit system. Putin did this intentionally before invading. He declined allowing the two eastern territories from becoming part of Russia several years ago intentionally so that he could “liberate” them now with the intention of also taking strategic resources in Ukraine. The loss of troops allows him to impose severe civilian casualties such that Ukraine will cede these resource rich territories. Putin strengthens Russia’s place as the oil producer for Europe AND removes the dollar as the oil reserve currency in the process.

Not saying I totally buy it, but I’m curious.

Initially in this current war he seemed to be going for much more than the Donbas. I suspect he still is looking for much more in the south, but his immediate focus will now be on the Donbas...at least that is what the Russian media is telling us. He has already occupied his southern land link with the Crimea so there is that, plus some additional parts of the Donbas. I still think he finally struck now because he thought it was his maximum window of opportunity with the perceived weakness of NATO and the Biden administration.

[Kung Wu]

Trillions of dollars of resources under the Ukraine and his risk analysis saying that nobody will stop him from grabbing them.

No 4d-chess theory needed. This is simple checkers.

[C0|dB|00ded]

I hope (and pray) that if nothing else, Putin still possesses the brain power to realize that freaking Ukraine has handed him his ass on a platter....and that trying anything else is beyond foolhardy.

Ummm... Putin could turn Ukraine into a parking lot if he wanted to at any moment using zero nukes. Russia is #4 in the world in military spending. Russia's military spending is nearly half of Ukraine's entire GDP.

Putin cruised into town thinking there would be immediate surrender (by either Ukraine or NATO/US). When that didn't happen, he was left in a tough situation as he never intended to destroy Ukraine. All he's attempting to do at this point is save face. It was an incredible miscalculation on his part thinking he could take over whatever it is he wanted to take over with a half-ass effort. His "gentle" invasion cost him thousands of casualties. Had he brought a first world effort using a volley of cruise missiles and stealth technology, it would have been over by lunchtime.

I believe his strategy has been evolving since the beginning. At first he only wanted leverage with threats. Then he bluffed harder by sending small attacks. Then when he started to look like an asshat, he inflicted more damage and suffering. It has been very incremental. One thing I have to say for old Pootin', he's keeping his cool. This kind of a cluster**** would have a lesser man bringing the heat by now. I also think it's the unified free world helping him to remain "calm".

[N Crestway]

Trillions of dollars of resources under the Ukraine and his risk analysis saying that nobody will stop him from grabbing them.

No 4d-chess theory needed. This is simple checkers.

We and NATO practically invited Putin in with our behavior since 2014 and then suddenly changed our minds in 2022. Unfortunately Putin is in the process of grabbing those resources but it may be at the cost of an endless insurgency in the eastern and southern Ukraine.

So far his "buddy" Lukashenko has not committed Belarus military units to the war. This could be a big sleeper issue if Belarus does not commit units and somehow drifts towards neutrality and away from Putin. At this point, Lukashenko surely realizes that if Russia is victorious in the Ukraine, Belarus is done as an independent state.

[wufan]

We and NATO practically invited Putin in with our behavior since 2014 and then suddenly changed our minds in 2022. Unfortunately Putin is in the process of grabbing those resources but it may be at the cost of an endless insurgency in the eastern and southern Ukraine.

So far his "buddy" Lukashenko has not committed Belarus military units to the war. This could be a big sleeper issue if Belarus does not commit units and somehow drifts towards neutrality and away from Putin. At this point, Lukashenko surely realizes that if Russia is victorious in the Ukraine, Belarus is done as an independent state.

I in no way think we “practically invited” Putin in, but NATO certainly didn’t help the situation.

[SB Shock]

The retreating Russians around Kyiv are leaving a string of war crime atrocities. Images are coming out showing men, women, and children were tortured before they were executed. Horrific images.

[SB Shock]

The retreating Russians around Kyiv are leaving a string of war crime atrocities. Images are coming out showing men, women, and children were tortured before they were executed. Horrific images.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-claims-control-over-kyiv-region-russia-looks-east-2022-04-03/

Ukraine on Sunday accused Russian forces of carrying out a "massacre" in the town of Bucha, while Western nations reacted to images of dead bodies there with calls for new sanctions against Moscow.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the images as "a punch in the gut". German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Russia must pay for "war crimes" and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said his government would step up sanctions.

[SB Shock]

Germany said on Sunday that the West would agree to impose more sanctions on Russia in the coming days after Ukraine accused Russian forces of war crimes near Kyiv, ratchetting up the already vast economic pressure on Russia over its invasion.

Reuters saw corpses strewn across the town. One appeared to have his hands bound by the white cloth, and to have been shot in the mouth.

German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said the European Union should talk about ending Russian gas imports.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...re-2022-04-03/

[C0|dB|00ded]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-boris-johnson-travel-lifestyle-8266fc649415566554d6e3bc8e42fcc9

Secret intelligence has unusually public role in Ukraine war

LONDON (AP) — The war in Ukraine is the conflict where spies came in from the cold and took center stage.

Since Russia invaded its neighbor in late February, intelligence agencies in the U.S. and Britain have been remarkably willing to go public with their secret intelligence assessments of what is happening on the battlefield — and inside the Kremlin.

The U.S. this week declassified intelligence findings claiming Russian President Vladimir Putin is being misinformed about his military’s poor performance in Ukraine by advisers scared to tell him the truth. On Thursday a British spy chief said demoralized Russian troops were refusing to carry out orders and sabotaging their own equipment.

Biden administration officials say they decided to aggressively share intelligence and coordinate messaging with key allies, including Britain, as U.S. concerns about Russian troop movements in autumn 2021 put the intelligence community on high alert.

In early November, President Joe Biden dispatched CIA director William Burns to Moscow to warn that the U.S. was fully aware of Russian troop movements. The White House has typically been tight-lipped about the director’s travels, but the Biden administration calculated that in this situation they needed to advertise the visit far and wide. The U.S. Embassy in Moscow announced that Burns had met with top Kremlin officials shortly after his trip was over.

Soon after Burns’ Moscow mission, U.S. officials decided they needed to accelerate intelligence sharing.

Smart!