Virginia Governor's Race

[WuDrWu]

I read that mail in votes were starting to be counted at 3pm this afternoon in Va. Early returns, starting after 6pm our time when the polls close there, are expected to reflect many of these mail in ballots and early voting.

Now, one would surmise that IF this information is accurate, then Terry McAuliffe likely will show an early lead. And if he doesn’t it could be a long night for the Dems, but again, that assumes facts not in evidence.

[pinstripers]

, that assumes facts not in evidence.

nowadays, all elections are like that

[Kung Wu]

I find it weird that I am actually interested in what happens in Virginia's gubernatorial election.

I have never went to the polls for the specific purpose of voting for school board members either.

Weird times.

[SB Shock]

Youngkin seems to be running slightly ahead. The problem is hard to tell for sure because early votes and election day votes are very mixed.

[ShockerFever]

For nothing else, I just want to see Youngkin win so I can see how hard the media melts and cries out for voter fraud. The tears would be the most delicious thing ever.

[SB Shock]

A couple looks at Blue counties:

Brunswick (95% in ) - was +4.8% Biden in 2020, +4.7% for Democrats for 2021 [Good for McCaufe]
Loudon (77% in) - was +15.2% Biden in 2020, +6.3% for Democrats for 2021 [Good for Youngkin]
Mannasas (95% in) - was +14.4% Biden in 2020 , +10% for democrats in 2021 [Good for Youngkin]

[SB Shock]

Nate Silver of 538 says

I’d keep in mind that if results reported so far look slightly better for Youngkin, the pre-election polls also looked slightly better for him, as did the exit poll. So while it’s anybody’s race and all of these indicators are tenuous, they do tend to point in the same direction.

[SB Shock]

Nate Silver of 538 says

Nate Cohn says +1.8 for Youngkin projected win at moment.

[SB Shock]

Another sign of Democratic implosion in Virginia

It’s still early in Virginia House of Delegates races, but Democrats’ majority appears to be in danger. Republicans currently lead in 14 Democratic-held districts; they only need to flip six in order to take control.

[1972Shocker]

Live Results can be tracked here. However, no analysis of where the votes are coming from and what that might portend.

https://redstate.com/redstatestaff/2...vernor-n468606

[SB Shock]

Live Results can be tracked here. However, not analysis of where the votes are coming from and what that might portend.

https://redstate.com/redstatestaff/2...vernor-n468606

I am using these to follow:

https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/20211102/office-governor/mapshift/?#feature

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2021-elections/virginia-governor-results

538 if you go down the page has reference benchmarks for county (to put each county vote in perspective.

[SB Shock]

Election analysts are not finding any bright spots for Mccaufe.

[1972Shocker]

Hopefully, Winsome Sears can win the Lt. Governor race and Jason Miyares can capture the Attorney General race. Miyares running against an incumbent.

[WuDrWu]

Total conspiracy theory post: Mail in ballots are delayed, for unknown reasons. Because they don’t know how many they need to count yet.

[1972Shocker]

Total conspiracy theory post: Mail in ballots are delayed, for unknown reasons. Because they don’t know how many they need to count yet.

That may be conspiratorial but not sure it is theoretical.