Presidential Election: Get out and vote!

[ShockingButTrue]

Dodging the question. How very Hidenesque of you.

And, he should be fired. If I were as wrong or flip flopped as often as he has I’d be fired too.

Cold dodges questions under the guise of incomprehension. Kinda sorta like Mueller in front of the judiciary, but at least Mueller had a sense of humor, and rambled a little less.

[wufan]

It is Trafalgar Versus the Polling World

https://redstate.com/scotthounsell/2020/11/02/it-is-trafalgar-versus-the-world-n273511

The author decided to take several polling firms that had conducted polls in several of the battleground states and to put their predictions into a map as to what they think the result is going to be. I was able to get maps together for New York Times/Siena, CBS/YouGov, Fox News, Rasmussen, and the underdog, Trafalgar.

His electoral results for each of these poll takers:

New York Times/Siena: Biden/Harris 373 - Trump/Pence 163 - Toss/Ups 2

Fox News: Biden/Harris 358 - Trump/Pence 143 - Toss/Ups 37

CBS/You Gov: Biden/Harris 333 - Trump/Pence 181 - Toss/Ups 24

Rasmussen: Biden/Harris 302 - Trump/Pence 202 - Toss/Ups 34

Trafalgar: Biden/Harris 242 - Trump/Pence 268 - Toss/Ups 28

Where’d you get your data? Rasmussen has Trump -1 overall, but couldn’t find a map.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

I love how all of the hypocrite "celebrities" are taking private jets just to go back to their home states to vote then hopping right back on said private jets to go back to Hollywood or NY. This is dripping with irony. I will take my private jet to go vote for the Liberal ticket who wants to ban fossil fuels. But then lecture everyone else on how climate change is real and is killing our planet.

Where is Greta when you need her?

[WichitaStateGuy]

296 - 242 Trump. Book it.

[1972Shocker]

Where’d you get your data? Rasmussen has Trump -1 overall, but couldn’t find a map.

The data is from the article I linked. However, I think their might be a difference between Rasmussen and Rasmussen Reports. Scott Rasmussen, who founded Rasmussen Reports, left them a number of years back. So I don't know if these numbers are from a Scott Rasmussen poll or a Rasmussen Reports poll.

[WuDrWu]

Meh. Trump takes Arizona Georgia NC and Florida and it comes down to PA and likely over for Biden. Pretty comfortable spot to be as I feel good about all of those states.

Hope you're right. I think Trump takes Florida fairly easily (compared to 2016). Georgia makes me nervous, mostly because pollsters haven't figured out the state in the last few years. I don't think the Dems are going to see a large enough black voter turnout to turn this state blue even though it continues to trend in that direction.

Pretty sure Ohio is done. Texas more so. Unfortunately I think Pennsylvania is done also, but in the wrong direction.

Minnesota and Michigan are intriguing. Both are tossups. I think Trump wins Michigan and Minnesota is razor close but barely stays blue. Trump winning both will not surprise me, but Biden winning both will.

North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona and to a lesser extent Nevada, New Hampshire, Nebraska 2, Maine 2 (and the previously mentioned Minnesota) provide lots of conflicting information and I deem total wildcards.

If I'm right, then it's 6 toss up states and 2 districts (Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and NE2 & ME2) to decide it with Trump holding a 248-232 lead. ANY departure from my prognostications and the President is all but done. And it's not hard at all to get to a tie. Trump takes Carolina & Nevada, or Minnesota & Arizona and he's at 269 and if Biden runs the table then 2020 hits a November grand salami and the **** show is ON. Could the election be anything but more 2020?

Get out and vote.

[MikeKennedyRulZ]

Hope you're right. I think Trump takes Florida fairly easily (compared to 2016). Georgia makes me nervous, mostly because pollsters haven't figured out the state in the last few years. I don't think the Dems are going to see a large enough black voter turnout to turn this state blue even though it continues to trend in that direction.

Pretty sure Ohio is done. Texas more so. Unfortunately I think Pennsylvania is done also, but in the wrong direction.

Minnesota and Michigan are intriguing. Both are tossups. I think Trump wins Michigan and Minnesota is razor close but barely stays blue. Trump winning both will not surprise me, but Biden winning both will.

North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona and to a lesser extent Nevada, New Hampshire, Nebraska 2, Maine 2 (and the previously mentioned Minnesota) provide lots of conflicting information and I deem total wildcards.

If I'm right, then it's 6 toss up states and 2 districts (Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and NE2 & ME2) to decide it with Trump holding a 248-232 lead. ANY departure from my prognostications and the President is all but done. And it's not hard at all to get to a tie. Trump takes Carolina & Nevada, or Minnesota & Arizona and he's at 269 and if Biden runs the table then 2020 hits a November grand salami and the **** show is ON. Could the election be anything but more 2020?

Get out and vote.

I like your model. I do think Florida is Trumps but I also feel like PA is as well. I think there will be a large in-person contingent of Trump supporters hitting the polls there tomorrow. PA is critical.

Wouldn't an electoral tie be the most 2020 thing ever. Lol! Fingers crossed my friend for a favorable (Trump) outcome.

[wufan]

The data is from the article I linked. However, I think their might be a difference between Rasmussen and Rasmussen Reports. Scott Rasmussen, who founded Rasmussen Reports, left them a number of years back. So I don't know if these numbers are from a Scott Rasmussen poll or a Rasmussen Reports poll.

The article has a firewall, so I can’t read more than the first paragraph, but Rasmussen reports has Biden up 1 nationally.

[WichitaStateGuy]

Hope you're right. I think Trump takes Florida fairly easily (compared to 2016). Georgia makes me nervous, mostly because pollsters haven't figured out the state in the last few years. I don't think the Dems are going to see a large enough black voter turnout to turn this state blue even though it continues to trend in that direction.

Pretty sure Ohio is done. Texas more so. Unfortunately I think Pennsylvania is done also, but in the wrong direction.

Minnesota and Michigan are intriguing. Both are tossups. I think Trump wins Michigan and Minnesota is razor close but barely stays blue. Trump winning both will not surprise me, but Biden winning both will.

North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona and to a lesser extent Nevada, New Hampshire, Nebraska 2, Maine 2 (and the previously mentioned Minnesota) provide lots of conflicting information and I deem total wildcards.

If I'm right, then it's 6 toss up states and 2 districts (Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and NE2 & ME2) to decide it with Trump holding a 248-232 lead. ANY departure from my prognostications and the President is all but done. And it's not hard at all to get to a tie. Trump takes Carolina & Nevada, or Minnesota & Arizona and he's at 269 and if Biden runs the table then 2020 hits a November grand salami and the **** show is ON. Could the election be anything but more 2020?

Get out and vote.

Curious why you think PA is going blue? They don't have early voting, and it's logical to think that Dem's would dominate the mail-in option. Trump is going to win PA by a bigger margin than '16.

[wufan]

Curious why you think PA is going blue? They don't have early voting, and it's logical to think that Dem's would dominate the mail-in option. Trump is going to win PA by a bigger margin than '16.

They have a dem governor, dem Supreme Court, dem Philly. They set the gerrymander for decades, and the DA says Trump can’t win Penn.

[WichitaStateGuy]

They have a dem governor, dem Supreme Court, dem Philly. They set the gerrymander for decades, and the DA says Trump can’t win Penn.

They had the same governor in ‘16. Trump is winning PA. Petroleum- and natural gas specifically- is the largest industry in PA. Election night going to look like a trump rally.

[BOBB]

Look, Trump can win, but the polls need to be wrong. Dead wrong. Wronger than last time. Possible. 538 has Trump with about the same chance as winning a "Hard 6" craps bet. Everybody knows the center table bets are sucker bets. Everybody's also been at a table with some clown getting paid big money on a succession of hard way bets. You'd have to give me 25:1 to see any action on Trump winning tomorrow. But, I wouldn't put my life on it. Go out and vote.

[ShockerFever]

Nobody's winning tomorrow.

[BOBB]

Nobody's winning tomorrow.

Any one of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina call for Biden and it's over. These are must carries for Trump. Unless razor thin these should be called tomorrow.

[pinstripers]

If you have grandchildren, for God's sake, vote for Donald Trump. If you have a business or a job, vote for Trump. If you have a 401K or a pension, vote for Trump. If you support the military or law enforcement, vote for Trump. If you are a hunter, an outdoorsman, or own firearms, vote for Trump. If you love cheap food, cheap fuel, and cheap home heating, vote for Trump. If you love freedom, well, you already know......