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Originally posted by 1972Shocker
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"You call my mom out?"Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille! -
The thread title was supposed to be Boogaloo, not Boogoloo. :(
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I believe the logo on this piece of trash's hoody was AK Press.Originally posted by ShockTalk View Post
AK Press is a worker-managed, independent publisher and book distributor that specializes in radical left and anarchist literature. Operated out of Chico, California, the company is collectively owned.
That doesn't necessarily mean he is part of that organization although he clearly sympathizes with that organization. My guess is he is just an anarchist wanna be considering he didn't seem to have much courage behind his convictions. Maybe he was just afraid of second-hand smoke. Yeah, that's what it was.
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I did a little research on the House last night and it's honestly looking worse than I thought. It's as much "bad math" as anything. There are just a lot of districts that had weak GOP seats. My fear years ago of the welfare class hitting the tipping point is going to be realized I'm afraid, and there's very little that we can do about it.
That the Democrats are likely to celebrate putting that idiot clown back in charge of the House just proves how completely mindless these people are.Comment
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I'm hoping for a miracle...
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It's not a leap...Comment
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I've posted this different places but probably best fits here. Just a little update on the Senate. Indiana has absolutely moved into toss up area. One poll (likely an outlier) has Braun +4 on Donnelly. I doubt that's accurate, but my thinking in the Hoosier state has always been that it's one of the few states to trend a bit to the GOP of late. A strong Trump push is likely to close the gap (clearly Donnelly is a better candidate than Braun, I'm not arguing that) and it appears that's exactly what's happening there. Could be a long night in Indiana for these 2 candidates.
Ted Cruz has closed strong and has consistently been polling at or above 50%. This will be closer than it should be but Cruz looks good.
Heidi Heitkamp as expected is done in North Dakota. She's down 12-20 points. Her gaffe with the sexual assaults list ended any hope she had to keep that seat blue. This will be a GOP pickup.
Both Mississippi seat appear safe. Wicker was never in trouble but Espy can't get any traction against Hyde-Smith.
Hawley seems to be consistently ahead of McCaskill in Missouri and at 50%. Claire will need an election day surprise to keep her seat. This would be a GOP pickup.
Tammy Baldwin appears safe in Wisconsin. She's a moderate and that is popular in WI. And the GOP candidate is weak imho. She'll keep her seat there. The GOP should have been able to challenge her but again, moderate Dems are the flavor in WI.
Florida is all over the place. Both are excellent candidates. Bill Nelson is the DEM incumbent. Rick Scott is the governor. Nelson has been ahead almost the entire time, but it's always been close. Recent polling has Nelson at or above 50%, a good sign, but several polls in the last 2 weeks have Scott ahead. Like most elections of late, this is likely to go deep into the night or the next morning. Early voting also suggests an oddity with stronger than expected GOP turnout, but imo those reports are unreliable.
I don't trust the polling in Nevada. Dean Heller is the GOP incumbent and has consistently polled ahead of Jacky Rosen in all but the most left leaning polls of late. However, Rosen got 10000+ more votes in her primary and she's got millions more to spend than Heller, almost unheard of against a sitting Senator. Heller will be lucky to hold on here. The DEMs, for me, will likely gain this seat based on my assumptions and that Nevada has been trending left, somewhat substantially.
Amy Klobuchar is safe in MN (a fair DEM) but Al Franken's seat is interesting. I actually think Tina Smith is sharp as heck and not a bad DEM EXCEPT that she's worked for and continually supports Planned Parenthood. The rest of her background isn't that radical (although her education is). Tina was appointed to Al's seat. The GOP opponent is strong. Karin Housely has been in MN politics and is married to hockey player/coach. Her record is strong for MN politics but she just hasn't gotten the traction I thought she'd get. That being said, while Smith had much more primary support, money and traction, I expect this race to be closer than the polling which has been around a +5 edge for Smith. She is certainly bolstered by the fact that Amy Klobuchar is also on the ticket. Not a toss up, and would be a huge pickup for the GOP, but this could be interesting. If they don't call this one early, it could be a long night for the DEMs although MN has danced to their own tune for years.
Incumbent John Tester remains ahead of GOP challenger Matt Rosendale in Montana. Although a red state, Tester is a strong, moderate and popular DEM. He has consistently maintained a lead as Rosendale isn't the strongest candidate. Tester will likely hold his seat, but if turnout is strong, this red state may flip the seat. Not a toss up, but keep your eye on it late.
Last edited by WuDrWu; October 25, 2018, 06:00 PM.Comment
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A couple more races to watch. In Michigan, Debbie Stabenow should retire but is running again and leading comfortably, however the GOP have a wonderful challenger in John James who has been gaining. He likely won't win, but he should. Iraqi vet, young African American, he'd represent Michigan with class and vigor. This could be closer than expected.
Manchin appears safe in West Virginia. The GOP did not put up a strong candidate imo.
I still think Bob Menedez in NJ could be sweating things out. He is polling at or above 50% mostly so probably nothing to see here. BUT if it's not called early, watch this race.
Arizona is also razor thin with 2 females vying to take Jeff Flake's spot. The consensus is that the DEM Sinema is leading McSally but this race will be very close. McSally is a strong candidate and I think she's just over 50/50 to win.
Tennessee is the last interesting race I think. Popular former DEM Gov. Phil Bredesen vs GOP Marsha Blackburn. Surprised this is so close, but Phil has always been popular in the state. Trump stopped by and Marsha's numbers have seemed to stay just ahead, but again, this race will be close. If the Dems can turn Bob Corker's seat blue that will be a huge win for them. If they don't call this race fairly early for Marsha, it could signal a long night for the GOP.Last edited by WuDrWu; October 25, 2018, 05:39 PM.Comment
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Fox News tops CNN and MSNBC combined in October cable news ratings
LOL! We'll see whose wave is the biggest...
#silentmajority
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I was surprised to see a poll that had Yoder down by 9 points to Sharice Davids. I will say if that is, in fact, the case. Then there will completely be a blue wave in the house. If Yoder wins, than I would say that the Dems were blowing smoke up their own ass."When life hands you lemons, make lemonade." Better have some sugar and water too, or else your lemonade will suck!Comment
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Bunch of frauds. Damn.Comment
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Results of recent Presidential first mid-term elections ...
President House seats Senate seats Obama -63 -6 Bush Jr +8 +1 Clinton -54 -9 Bush Sr -8 -1 Reagan -54 0 Carter -15 -2
Projection by 538
Trump -39 (-59 to -21 is one std dev) +0.7
If Trump retains the Senate, it is a huge win for the GOP and Trump, because losing a ton of house seats in a President's first mid-term is expected, but going 0 or even gaining a seat in the Senate is quite the feat.
Keep in mind that 9/11 happened one year before Bush Jr's first mid-term and his ratings were through the roof as the Americans rallied behind him due to the attack -- so I discount that data point from a historical perspective.Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
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It's not logical to say "If Trump retains the Senate, it is a huge win for the GOP." Since Senators are in place for six years, it doesn't make sense to calculate relative gains and losses the same way you do with the House. The Senate map is really, really, really bad for Democrats. If Republicans gain zero seats this time, that is absolutely not a win for the GOP. The GOP will be in a really rough situation for the 2020 and 2022 maps.Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
Edit to clarify: this particular grouping of senators (Class 1) were up in 2012, 2006, 2000, 1994, 1988, 1982. Obama's first midterm occurred in 2010, Bush's occurred in 2002, Clinton's occurred in 1994, Bush Sr's was 1990, and Reagan was 1982. The only ones that line up at all are Clinton and Reagan, and those are long enough ago that Class 1 is not close to the same breakdown. All of it depends on if that particular breakdown is a good map for the presidential party or not.Last edited by jdshock; November 5, 2018, 12:05 PM.Comment
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Also jdshock the Senate is just one part of government, and you're using population as the only factor. Certainly there are other factors to be considered. New Yorkers for instance would have a hard time feeding themselves with the wheat and corn from KS NE and IA. There are other considerations, outside of the ones that support your cause. Just sayin'. -
WuDrWu - Honestly, I've said it over and over again. I'm not saying the Senate breakdown is bad. It's just disproportionate to population.
This conversation would be like if you said Affirmative Action disproportionately benefits minorities. Yeah, I mean... that's true. And an Affirmative Action supporter should be fine with that. I don't understand the debate that is going on in this comment thread. At all. I'll probably just let it go since it's totally, totally meaningless. And this will be my last post on the subject, but I am really struggling to understand here. I mean, it's just true that the Senate is good for the small states. That is, in fact, its intended function.
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