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Blue Wave Boogaloo

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  • Blue Wave Boogaloo

    Polls are coming out indicating that any momentum advantage Dems have in the upcoming Midterms may be safely confined via overvoting in already heavily deranged districts. One article showed the Trumpers actually leading most of the battleground seats by a very slim margin. Considering the Dems need to win two-thirds or so of the available open seats to ensure a flip, more crying, screaming, vomiting, and door scratching may just be around the corner.

    Bear spray anyone?

    https://caffeinatedthoughts.com/2018...use-districts/


    T


    ...

  • #2
    The House is too hard to follow with all the contested seats, but if you're fair, the math is really hard for the GOP to maintain the House. I think there's a slightly better than 50/50 chance we lose the house, just my opinion.

    That being said, any talk of the GOP losing the Senate was Fake News for the most part, again, part of what's so annoying in the media. You have to stretch the bounds of probability to believe that the Republicans couldn't manage to hold 5 seats between the 11 "toss up" seats, almost ALL of which are in pink if not deep red states. Thinking MS, TX, NE, ND, MT, NV, AZ, TN, MO, IN & FL were going to break 7-4 in favor of the DEMS (the minimum needed to take the Senate, with UT WY and MS safe, and limiting the GOP to 49 or fewer seats) is a lot more hope than change. (12, I left out WV).

    TX appears to be safer in Cruz' pocket now, DESPITE CNN's HOUR FREE COMMERCIAL ran twice last night for fake Hispanic Robert. Hawley has consistently polled ahead of Clair in MO. I think Manchin holds on in WV and may even declare he's GOP to get a chair somewhere. Turncoat. Heller is polling strong in NV which surprises me. I haven't thought he'd win that seat. AZ is total tossup but McSally seemingly has the momentum for the GOP. Of the 11 seats I mentioned, I think the GOP wins TX, MS, ND, MO, NE & TN despite Taylor Swift's efforts.

    That's 42 uncontested, WY, MS1, UT will go to the Republicans. That's 45. TX, MS2, ND, MO, NE and TN make 51. And I think they'll pick up 2 more between FL, NV, AZ, MT (all toss ups), IN (actually surprised how not close this is, terrible GOP candidate) and I'm adding WV, NJ where Menendez is taking on water fast in a deep blue state that should be safe, and watch MN2 (Klobuchar is safe in her re-election) weird Al's seat where Hously has closed the gap and might just make a race of it.
    Last edited by WuDrWu; 3 weeks ago.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by WuDrWu View Post
      The House is too hard to follow with all the contested seats, but if you're fair, the math is really hard for the GOP to maintain the House. I think there's a slightly better than 50/50 chance we lose the house, just my opinion.

      That being said, any talk of the GOP losing the Senate was Fake News for the most part, again, part of what's so annoying in the media. You have to stretch the bounds of probability to believe that the Republicans couldn't manage to hold 5 seats between the 11 "toss up" seats, almost ALL of which are in pink if not deep red states. Thinking MS, TX, NE, ND, MT, NV, AZ, TN, MO, IN & FL were going to break 7-4 in favor of the DEMS (the minimum needed to take the Senate, with UT WY and MS safe, and limiting the GOP to 49 or fewer seats) is a lot more hope than change. (12, I left out WV).

      TX appears to be safer in Cruz' pocket now, DESPITE CNN's HOUR FREE COMMERCIAL ran twice last night for fake Hispanic Robert. Hawley has consistently polled ahead of Clair in MO. I think Manchin holds on in WV and may even declare he's GOP to get a chair somewhere. Turncoat. Heller is polling strong in NV which surprises me. I haven't thought he'd win that seat. AZ is total tossup but McSally seemingly has the momentum for the GOP. Of the 11 seats I mentioned, I think the GOP wins TX, MS, ND, MO, NE & TN despite Taylor Swift's efforts.

      That's 42 uncontested, WY, MS1, UT will go to the Republicans. That's 45. TX, MS2, ND, MO, NE and TN make 51. And I think they'll pick up 2 more between FL, NV, AZ, MT (all toss ups), IN (actually surprised how not close this is, terrible GOP candidate) and I'm adding WV, NJ where Menendez is taking on water fast in a deep blue state that should be safe, and watch MN2 (Klobuchar is safe in her re-election) weird Al's seat where Hously has closed the gap and might just make a race of it.
      As a general proposition, I agree that it's incredibly unlikely dems win the Senate. Dems are actually lucky that this map occurred this year, though. If it'd occurred in a year where the republicans were in a better position, dems could've been locked out of the majority for a long time.

      As to your specific guesses, I wouldn't count MO in the givens yet. It's definitely a toss-up. Hawley is polling well, but McCaskill is still a dem incumbent in a year that should prove to be mostly positive for dems. I also don't think MT and IN are "toss-ups." If they're toss-ups, TN and TX are toss-ups. I don't think NJ is really in trouble, and I don't think Manchin is either. But on many issues he will definitely side with the GOP, so tough to really have him in the calculation one way or the other.

      I think dems should count it as a massive victory to get to 50 or better. Republicans are starting off with 19 extra seats, so evening it up this year should be considered a win. I certainly think anywhere between 48 dem seats and 50 dem seats is the most likely. Any more is a major win. Any fewer would be a pretty big disappointment.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by jdshock View Post

        As a general proposition, I agree that it's incredibly unlikely dems win the Senate. Dems are actually lucky that this map occurred this year, though. If it'd occurred in a year where the republicans were in a better position, dems could've been locked out of the majority for a long time.

        As to your specific guesses, I wouldn't count MO in the givens yet. It's definitely a toss-up. Hawley is polling well, but McCaskill is still a dem incumbent in a year that should prove to be mostly positive for dems. I also don't think MT and IN are "toss-ups." If they're toss-ups, TN and TX are toss-ups. I don't think NJ is really in trouble, and I don't think Manchin is either. But on many issues he will definitely side with the GOP, so tough to really have him in the calculation one way or the other.

        I think dems should count it as a massive victory to get to 50 or better. Republicans are starting off with 19 extra seats, so evening it up this year should be considered a win. I certainly think anywhere between 48 dem seats and 50 dem seats is the most likely. Any more is a major win. Any fewer would be a pretty big disappointment.
        Agreed. I think it's also being understated how big of a disaster it would be for the GOP if the Dems somehow were to take the Senate. It would be catastrophic and effectively lock out the GOP from the Senate for the next 6 years. A Dem majority means they have 28 seats etched in stone for 6 years including quite a few of the vulnerable Dem seats and toss-up seats. To take back the Senate in the next two elections the GOP would have to make gains in addition to defending 42 seats. And realistically there aren't a ton of vulnerable Dem seats in the next two elections. About the only obvious one is Doug Jones. Meanwhile GOP are going to be in dogfights in AZ and ME, and I really don't see Gardner defending his seat in CO either.

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        • #5
          Historically speaking, shouldn't the Dems be in a position to run away with this election?
          Kung Wu say: "If Chuck Norris had a coach, his name would be Gregg Marshall."

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          • #6
            Paraphrasing Kamala Harris' thoughts: "I got an idea! Let's literally try to BUY votes!"

            https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/19/kama...-tax-cuts.html
            Kung Wu say: "If Chuck Norris had a coach, his name would be Gregg Marshall."

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
              Paraphrasing Kamala Harris' thoughts: "I got an idea! Let's literally try to BUY votes!"

              https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/19/kama...-tax-cuts.html
              They have always done that. Nothing new. The problem with that approach is that it is buying votes they dems probably already own.

              Now Hillary's approach of extortion is a bit different. The only way the violoence will stop it is to elect Democrats.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
                Paraphrasing Kamala Harris' thoughts: "I got an idea! Let's literally try to BUY votes!"

                https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/19/kama...-tax-cuts.html
                We already have cash payouts for the poor and working class, do they need more? EIC is literally cash in their checking account every April. The various other support programs operate much like cash.

                Today, the lower 50% of this country pay no income taxes, so it is mathematically impossible for them to pay less than they do today in that context. So yes, the Trump tax cuts benefit the “rich” upper 50%, because you can’t give a tax cut to someone who already doesn’t pay taxes.

                This all is an intellectual shell game the left LOVES to trot out, and rarely get called out for it.
                There are only three sports: bullfighting, motor racing, and mountaineering; all the rest are merely games.
                - Ernest Hemingway

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
                  Historically speaking, shouldn't the Dems be in a position to run away with this election?
                  Yeah, but I think we might be disagreeing about what it means to "run away" with a mid term election. 538 has dems gaining, on average, about 40 seats in the House, which I definitely would classify as "running away with" the election. In the Senate, if dems win 75% of the seats up for election, they still only get to 49 seats. It's just a comically bad map for dems this cycle.

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                  • #10
                    Texas Dem Party Mailing Pre-Marked Ballots to Non-Citizens, Report Says

                    The Texas Democratic Party is coming under scrutiny after they apparently sent out voter registration documents to residents — including non-citizens — with the citizenship box pre-marked with a “yes.”

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                    • #11
                      Texas Voter Fraud Ring Busted, Slapped with Nearly 30 Felony Charges

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                      • #12
                        The McSally-Sinema race really sums up the differences between dems and repubs, at a near-hilarious level.

                        Fifteen years ago McSally was an officer in the USAF flying fighter jets.

                        Fifteen years ago Sinema was twirling and becoming one with the Earth at witchcraft get-togethers.

                        If that doesn’t sum up the cultures of the left versus right then I don’t know what does. It’s not 100% fair today, especially with Sinema who has seemingly pulled her stuff together and more or less developed into the Joe Manchin mold, but it is still funny.
                        There are only three sports: bullfighting, motor racing, and mountaineering; all the rest are merely games.
                        - Ernest Hemingway

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                        • #13
                          Big Leftist Thug Attacks 9/11 Widow, Then Bigger Guy Shows Up & Sends Him Running

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                        • #14
                          The first part of that video was so very sad and deplorable. Could not believe what was coming out of that idiot's mouth, especially after finding out that this woman lost her husband during 9/11. On the other hand, the last part of the video spoke even more volumes of his character and was funny as hell.

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                          • #15
                            Uuugh.
                            Kung Wu say: "If Chuck Norris had a coach, his name would be Gregg Marshall."

                            Comment


                            • 1972Shocker
                              1972Shocker commented
                              Editing a comment
                              The question I have is who were paying these ladies. I find it very difficult to believe they did this on their own. Perhaps some plea bargains are coming that will reveal the who was really behind this.
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