2011 Winter Storms

[wsushox1]

How in the hell do you accurately measure snow on the ground with the damn wind blowing it everywhere?

Find several places out of the wind and take the average of those amounts. At least thats what I have always been told to do

[ShockBand]

How in the hell do you accurately measure snow on the ground with the damn wind blowing it everywhere?

Hold a yardstick sideways?

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Possibility of a Tuesday revisit...

I'll let the more weather knowledgeable people fill in details, but showing 4-6 with bullseye not very far from us again.

[wsushox1]

4-6 inches is a good guess.

I do not think we will see much more.

This is associated with a system, but its weaker in the upper atmosphere than the last system and is more Lifted Precipitation over a Warm Front than forced precipitation.

Snow Ratios will be 16-20+:1 per ICT NWS.

[wsushox1]

Well we have a plot twist.

North American Model (NAM) Precipitation Forecast from now to Wednesday Night. If this were to verify then Winter Storm Warnings would be issued for most of Central and SC KS.



The Global Forecast System (GFS) Precpitation forecast for the same time period



If the NAM were to verify we're looking at 7-12 inches of snow, if the GFS were to verify then we are only looking at 4-6 inches.

I would imagine the NAM run would get thrown out as an outlier as it is exactly that right now, an outlier.

I have not time to look into reasons as to why the NAM is showing more snowfall (slowing the system down, strengthening the system, model error, etc). 3 games in 4 days is the reason.

[SB Shock]

GFS is taking things further south than the NAM. NAM is showing two distinct events for Wichita.

The NAM events are shown below


NAM EVENT 1



NAM EVENT 2



Here is the GFS model (older run) that showed things a little further south

GFS OLD RUN



The latest GFS run seems to moving closer to the NAM

GFS NEW RUN

[wsushox1]

Great Look SB Shock!

WSWarnings up as they should be

Edit 10:05: Just issued Winter Storm Warnings for almost all of Kansas.

[wsushox1]

ICT Finally giong Bullish with snow fall totals which is what I think they should have done earlier

[wsushox1]

000
SXUS73 KICT 101313 CCA
RERICT

RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
703 AM CST THU FEB 10 2011

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FALL ACROSS THE AREA FOR FEBRUARY 10TH...


WICHITA KANSAS MID CONTINENT AIRPORT: THE TEMPERATURE PLUNGED TO A
RECORD LOW OF -17 DEGREES DURING THE MORNING OF FEBRUARY 10TH. THIS
SHATTERS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF -5 DEGREES SET IN 1980.

SALINA KANSAS: THE TEMPERATURE PLUNGED TO A RECORD LOW OF -15
DEGREES DURING THE MORNING OF FEBRUARY 10TH. THIS BREAKS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF -11 DEGREES SET IN 1905.

RUSSELL KANSAS: THE TEMPERATURE FELL TO A RECORD LOW OF -10 DEGREES
DURING THE MORNING OF FEBRUARY 10TH. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD
OF -7 DEGREES SET IN 1981.

CHANUTE KANSAS: THE TEMPERATURE PLUNGED TO A RECORD LOW OF -15
DEGREES DURING THE MORNING OF FEBRUARY 10TH.. THIS SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF -7 DEGREES SET IN 1980.


NOTE: THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE PRELIMINARY AND WILL NOT BE
OFFICIAL UNTIL MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD GO A LITTLE LOWER AROUND
SUNRISE TODAY...OR POSSIBLY THIS EVENING.

$$

KETCHAM

[SubGod22]

That doesn't surprise me. Our bank was reading -6 at 7am. And I was an idiot and spent 30 minutes trying to clear a path for the plumber who may or may not show up today.

[wsushox1]

That doesn't surprise me. Our bank was reading -6 at 7am. And I was an idiot and spent 30 minutes trying to clear a path for the plumber who may or may not show up today.

With forecast lows of -5.........and one day out snow fall forecasts of 4-5 inches.

Can't fault them though cause that is what every model was showing one day out.

Just shows, how fickle a science it is.

[1979Shocker]

That was a pretty big temperature swing over the last week. Last Thursday we had a record low of -17 and today, one week later, we set a record high of 78 degrees, a swing of 95 degrees.

http://blogs.kansas.com/weather/2011/02/17/a-record-low-and-record-high-just-a-week-apart-in-wichita/

[wsushox1]

Winter Storm Warnings up for all central KS counties north of the Turnpike, here in Butler and Sedgwick just Winter Weather Advisories.

Hard to believe that now as there is some serious thunder, rain, and pea sized hail at my house right now, which I will take any day over winter weather.

Big Severe outbreak forecasted with this system as well, in parts of OK/ all of ARK/ and Eastern Tenn

[NCAABound]

So what the heck is going to happen this afternoon? Just some light freezing drizzle or sleet? Will it be enough to make the pm drive a nightmare?

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

Is precipitation in Wichita of course driving in the PM will be a nightmare.