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This time frame has some serious potential for a nice winter storm. Right now it is tricky forecast the exact track of the storm. There is a northern stream of the jet stream and a southern stream of the jet stream. The northern stream brings the cold air, and the southern stream brings the storm and the moisture. Ideally you would want these two streams of air to merge or "phase" together. When you get a complete phase of both jet streams powerful winter storms can happen. Right now weather models have shown multiple solutions happen. A complete phase, which right now the track appears to be through Southern OK, which is perfect for a great KS snow storm. To the southern stream of the jet stream hanging back in the SW and the Northern stream ejecting Eastward faster meaning the storm gets pushed all the way down into the gulf. To a solution where they partially phase and Ice becomes a concern for SC KS.
The latest model runs have started to show almost a complete phase. I will update this thread tomorrow after some of tonights foreign models get a chance to run their course (pun intended).
I leave with a precip map from one of tonights model runs.
1 inch-1.25 inches of precipitation all in the Snow Form. 10-1 snow to water ratios mean that could be around 9-12 inches. Will that verify to that exact extent? Unlikely, but this is a timeframe to keep watching.
The latest model runs have started to show almost a complete phase. I will update this thread tomorrow after some of tonights foreign models get a chance to run their course (pun intended).
I leave with a precip map from one of tonights model runs.
1 inch-1.25 inches of precipitation all in the Snow Form. 10-1 snow to water ratios mean that could be around 9-12 inches. Will that verify to that exact extent? Unlikely, but this is a timeframe to keep watching.
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