Severe Weather Season

[wsushox1]

5:07PM Update:

AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND DRY LINE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH STORMS SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...THE DEGREE OF WIND SHEAR IN CONCERT WITH RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN THESE STORMS...INCLUDING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER...STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS...AND STRONG TO VIOLENT LONG TRACK TORNADOES. WHILE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ANYWHERE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...THE GREATEST RISK FOR THIS
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD RESIDE GENERALLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EXIT SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT.

Can you Link that to me? I can't find it anywhere?

NVM you were looking at the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

[wsushox1]

This could very well bust, but I don't think it will.

as SB shock said leftover Convection/Low Level clouds tomorrow morning will hamper warming. However, thinking from the NWS is that the Clouds should at least start to clear by Early to Mid Afternoon which will alow rapid destabilitization along the dryline. However....there is still alot of uncertainty of where the dryline will set up and also how big the warm Sector is. Shear is still off the charts.

All for now, just pay attention tomorrow.

That cap is also suppose to be really strong.

But your right these are the most dangerous days- I major storm goes up with nothing inhibiting it inflow and you get a long lived supercell that drops a monster wedge.

CAP will be a problem but it will weaken by Late Afternoon.

My guess for where that 1 major storm will be is Sumner/Harper County lines. Thats where the models have consistenly put out Supercell like precipitation.

Storm motions will be extremely fast, storms might be moving at 35-50 MPH.

Considering the low condensation levels a wedge might be the tornado that a supercell could produce tomorrow.

[BenWSU]

Looks like everything is going to miss Wichita with this prediction.

[ShockerFever]

Not surprising. Everything always misses us to the east.

SB was right a couple days ago. The GFS was trending east and that is where everything is transitioning to.

This is just another layer of icing on the proverbial severe weather cake for Wichita.

[wsushox1]

Not surprising. Everything always misses us to the east.

SB was right a couple days ago. The GFS was trending east and that is where everything is transitioning to.

This is just another layer of icing on the proverbial severe weather cake for Wichita.

Then go East. You have a car right? If I were Chasing I'd Be sitting in Ark City With Options to Go in any Directions Via I 35 and US 166.

Wichita has had more than enough severe weather in the past 20 years with Andover, Haysville, and Mulvane in 04. Include that Serial Derecho last year its had everything.

[ShockerFever]

Not surprising. Everything always misses us to the east.

SB was right a couple days ago. The GFS was trending east and that is where everything is transitioning to.

This is just another layer of icing on the proverbial severe weather cake for Wichita.

Then go East. You have a car right? If I were Chasing I'd Be sitting in Ark City With Options to Go in any Directions Via I 35 and US 166.

Wichita has had more than enough severe weather in the past 20 years with Andover, Haysville, and Mulvane in 04. Include that Serial Derecho last year its had everything.

The chasing terrain east of Wichita is God-awful, not to mention the less-than-stellar road network. Sorry, but no thanks.

I would hardly call the Mulvane tornado "major".

We haven't had much of anything in over 10 years.

[SB Shock]

Looks like everything is going to miss Wichita with this prediction.

Yeah. I kept thinking I was missing something because everything I was seeing said all the ingredients are not there for a Moderate Day 2 risk for Wichita and it is more likely south and east of here.

We will probably know more tomorrow morning when we find out whether the moisture gets back or not.

[ShockerFever]

I don't think moisture return will be an issue. It's the surging dryline that will prove to be where the storms first fire.

Another important conditional factor will be how much sunlight breaks through the low cloud deck and how soon that happens (as wsushox1 already alluded to). If the clouds hold, so will the significant severe weather.

[wsushox1]

Well I am looking forward to tomorrow to see if My forecast will verify or bust.

Excellent learning opportunity for everyone as well.

Anyways stay safe.

Latest model run was very aggressive with low level clouds in SC KS. So aggressive that temperatures might not get out of the 60's. However, after talking to several people who know more about this than me they say that the clouds will probably clear allowing the air to destabilize quite nicely. Just stay tuned, as of this point its anyones educated guess.

[SB Shock]

I don't think moisture return will be an issue. It's the surging dryline that will prove to be where the storms first fire.

Another important conditional factor will be how much sunlight breaks through the low cloud deck and how soon that happens (as wsushox1 already alluded to). If the clouds hold, so will the significant severe weather.

Wichita WFO is saying that best chance for T-Storm activity is between 12z-18z - that doesn't say significant severe outbreak to me.

Models are really showing that 60 degree depoints will barely nose into Wichita before being shoved east early in the afternoon. Capes don't look that impressive. Look more like a Northern/Central OK type event.

[SB Shock]

Well I am looking forward to tomorrow to see if My forecast will verify or bust.

Excellent learning opportunity for everyone as well.

Anyways stay safe.

Latest model run was very aggressive with low level clouds in SC KS. So aggressive that temperatures might not get out of the 60's. However, after talking to several people who know more about this than me they say that the clouds will probably clear allowing the air to destabilize quite nicely. Just stay tuned, as of this point its anyones educated guess.

What is your forecast?

[wsushox1]

I don't think moisture return will be an issue. It's the surging dryline that will prove to be where the storms first fire.

Another important conditional factor will be how much sunlight breaks through the low cloud deck and how soon that happens (as wsushox1 already alluded to). If the clouds hold, so will the significant severe weather.

Wichita WFO is saying that best chance for T-Storm activity is between 12z-18z - that doesn't say significant severe outbreak to me.

Models are really showing that 60 degree depoints will barely nose into Wichita before being shoved east early in the afternoon. Capes don't look that impressive. Look more like a Northern/Central OK type event.

Where are you getting that 12z-18z thing? Source me?

[wsushox1]

Well I am looking forward to tomorrow to see if My forecast will verify or bust.

Excellent learning opportunity for everyone as well.

Anyways stay safe.

Latest model run was very aggressive with low level clouds in SC KS. So aggressive that temperatures might not get out of the 60's. However, after talking to several people who know more about this than me they say that the clouds will probably clear allowing the air to destabilize quite nicely. Just stay tuned, as of this point its anyones educated guess.

What is your forecast?

I think 1 or 2 storms will fire in SC KS especially over Sumner/Cowley Counties(possibly further east) and quickly race north at around 35-45 MPH (could even see storms move faster that that).

Further south into OK around the Stillwater to Cushing to OKC area discrete strong Thunderstorms will pop up around 6 PM as the CAP in that area finally wears away. These storms are in an environment with insane shear and high instability. These storms are more than capable of Long tracked tornadoes.

All in all your classic Nowcasting day.

Edit: Add Tulsa in there. Just looked over some sounding data from there and WOW! Hodograph looks great for there as well.

Here is the Link http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/par...STATIONID=KTUL

[SB Shock]

I don't think moisture return will be an issue. It's the surging dryline that will prove to be where the storms first fire.

Another important conditional factor will be how much sunlight breaks through the low cloud deck and how soon that happens (as wsushox1 already alluded to). If the clouds hold, so will the significant severe weather.

Wichita WFO is saying that best chance for T-Storm activity is between 12z-18z - that doesn't say significant severe outbreak to me.

Models are really showing that 60 degree depoints will barely nose into Wichita before being shoved east early in the afternoon. Capes don't look that impressive. Look more like a Northern/Central OK type event.

Where are you getting that 12z-18z thing? Source me?

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ICT&issuedby=ICT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TAKING PLACE BETWEEN 09Z-15Z AT HUT/RSL...AND AT THE SLN/ICT BETWEEN 12Z-18Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM OR TWO DUE TO GOOD ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET (50KTS) HELPING ENHANCE THE LIFT.

[SB Shock]

Well I am looking forward to tomorrow to see if My forecast will verify or bust.

Excellent learning opportunity for everyone as well.

Anyways stay safe.

Latest model run was very aggressive with low level clouds in SC KS. So aggressive that temperatures might not get out of the 60's. However, after talking to several people who know more about this than me they say that the clouds will probably clear allowing the air to destabilize quite nicely. Just stay tuned, as of this point its anyones educated guess.

What is your forecast?

I think 1 or 2 storms will fire in SC KS especially over Sumner/Cowley Counties(possibly further east) and quickly race north at around 35-45 MPH (could even see storms move faster that that).

Further south into OK around the Stillwater to Cushing to OKC area discrete strong Thunderstorms will pop up around 6 PM as the CAP in that area finally wears away. These storms are in an environment with insane shear and high instability. These storms are more than capable of Long tracked tornadoes.

All in all your classic Nowcasting day.

Sounds like a slight risk day for Kansas.