Severe Weather Season

[wsushox1]

I think you're pretty dead on. The lack of moisture will really kill any threat with this system. I'll honestly be surprised if we hit 62 before dark tomorrow. Temperatures should warm nicely tomorrow. However, with the lack of quality moisture, LCL's will be very high and thus the tornado threat will be limited, at best.

We just aren't getting all the right ingredients at the right time. When we've been in an "outbreak drought" for so long, it really starts to settle in on you just how perfect things have to be for a big day.

Severe weather will occur tomorrow. But like you said, it'll isolated, and for Wichita, we'll probably get a linear band of storms around the overnight hours.

Pretty Much, if this system had another day of moisture return it might have been better but it is what is I guess.

EDIT: After looking at some of the shorter, more accurate models (under 12 hours) it is alot more bullish with instability around the Great Bend Area. 3000+ CAPE is being forecasted, that is pretty high. However CAP is still pretty darn strong at that time though. Lifted Index's are being forecasted at -11 or -12 at that time as well, that s stronger than I have seen all season in the US. Doesn't mean anything if it can't break the Cap though.

[SB Shock]

Looking at the upper air soundings, it looks like everything is capped tight around Wichita, then add that gulf moisture is severly lacking.Don't really hold out much hope of anything happening.

[wsushox1]

Looking at the upper air soundings, it looks like everything is capped tight around Wichita, then add that gulf moisture is severly lacking.Don't really hold out much hope of anything happening.

Agreed, especially around here, further north Around I-70, something might pop later in the afternoon but yes, not anything around here.

[RoyalShock]

Around 5pm I was able to see the storms north of Salina. The cap looked pretty strong. About an hour later it looked like the rear flank might be trying to break it.

Here is a great link to watch live storm chase video.

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

[SB Shock]

After looking at some of the shorter, more accurate models (under 12 hours) it is alot more bullish with instability around the Great Bend Area.

Pretty good call.

[wsushox1]

Alright guys, looks as if maybe another big trough will come ashore around the 9-10th. We might FINALLY get decent moisture return with this system but it is still a long ways out. Where all the mesoscale/synoptic features will form, who knows right now. Just nice to see another trough come ashore.

More to come as we get closer.

This is from the NWS in Wichita

THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTED BY THE
LONG RANGE MODELS WOULD FINALLY ALLOW TRUE RICH GULF MOISTURE A FREE
RIDE NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS...STAY TUNED.

JAKUB

[wsushox1]

Next Monday is looking as if it could be a Significant severe wx day.

SPC Convective outlook:

ON DAY 5 /MON MAY 10TH/...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE
NEWD PROGRESSION OF AN INTENSE...NEGATIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED...RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL DRAW A MOIST AIR MASS
NWD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL OUTBREAK OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

That is very, very strong wording 5 days out.

[ShockerFever]

Still a LONG ways out before sorting out all the details, but I agree, things seem to be coming together at the present time. Plenty of things can change though.

I do agree that the SPC's wording is pretty serious this far out.

[SB Shock]

I get this feeling this is more wishcasting. The trend so far is it seems it gets push a little further east each day.

[wsushox1]

I get this feeling this is more wishcasting. The trend so far is it seems it gets push a little further east each day.

Actually one of newer model runs has slowed the system down by quite a bit moving the dryline from Central Kansas more towards the Texas Panhandle area. If that situation were to verify SC Kansas would get little if no sever weather. Quite the curve ball thrown by the models.

One model slows it down two other models still have it somewhat progressive.

Stan Finger Blog Jinx for the win!!! 8) :lol: ;-)

[SB Shock]

Moderate threat for Monday. But I don't think it's a slam dunk yet, especially if storms emerge overnight. Maybe it because the gulf moisture is still well south of the Red-River and it is relatively cool outside, but it just doesn't feel like we are about to have a major outbreak tomorrow.

video briefing by the Wichita WFO

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ict/?n=webbriefing

[BenWSU]

[wsushox1]

This could very well bust, but I don't think it will.

as SB shock said leftover Convection/Low Level clouds tomorrow morning will hamper warming. However, thinking from the NWS is that the Clouds should at least start to clear by Early to Mid Afternoon which will alow rapid destabilitization along the dryline. However....there is still alot of uncertainty of where the dryline will set up and also how big the warm Sector is. Shear is still off the charts.

All for now, just pay attention tomorrow.

[BenWSU]

5:07PM Update:

AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND DRY LINE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH STORMS SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...THE DEGREE OF WIND SHEAR IN CONCERT WITH RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITHIN THESE STORMS...INCLUDING BASEBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER...STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS...AND STRONG TO VIOLENT LONG TRACK TORNADOES. WHILE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ANYWHERE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...THE GREATEST RISK FOR THIS
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD RESIDE GENERALLY EAST OF THE TURNPIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EXIT SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT.

[SB Shock]

This could very well bust, but I don't think it will.

as SB shock said leftover Convection/Low Level clouds tomorrow morning will hamper warming. However, thinking from the NWS is that the Clouds should at least start to clear by Early to Mid Afternoon which will alow rapid destabilitization along the dryline. However....there is still alot of uncertainty of where the dryline will set up and also how big the warm Sector is. Shear is still off the charts.

All for now, just pay attention tomorrow.

That cap is also suppose to be really strong.

But your right these are the most dangerous days- I major storm goes up with nothing inhibiting it inflow and you get a long lived supercell that drops a monster wedge.