Severe Weather Season

[wsushox1]

Wichita gets sandwiched between the two episodes (as always). Next week will be interesting, but these storm systems are really staying pretty far south.

Yes dryline to the west yesterday, dryline to the east today.

[wsushox1]

Next week to week and a half will most likely be very active somewhere in the Plains.

[SB Shock]

Welcome to Tornado Season Restart.

31 tornadoes today so far on the restart. Previously there had been only 98 to this point in the year. Tomorrow is even looking like a bigger day.

98 total for the year....3 days later jumps to 215. Still well below the 25% percentile for normal year but thing may be picking up.

[wsushox1]

Day 3 Slight Risk for Thursday

Probabilistic:

[BenWSU]

And 2 days before Vortex2 which means they`ll be people wanting to chase whatever we get.

Just seems like Kansas & tornado alley as a whole has been too cold this spring to really get any storms going.

[ShockerFever]

As with about 90% of the systems this year, quality moisture return is a question. That could mean the difference between some severe storms or a tornado outbreak.

Not the best wind shear with this approaching system, at least right now. It would be nice to get a low to develop in southwest Kansas and give us a southeasterly component to the surface winds on Thursday.

[wsushox1]

Moisture is the big concern and yes more backing SEsterly winds would definitely help. I think shear should be fine, 40-50+ knt wind shear is more than enough for discrete cells.

I don't want to get to technical over the weather on this forum, thats for another forum.

Stay safe.

[Maggie]

I don't want to get to technical over the weather on this forum, thats for another forum.

You can get technical, if you don’t mind – I think it is kind of interesting.

[wsushox1]

I don't want to get to technical over the weather on this forum, thats for another forum.

You can get technical, if you don’t mind – I think it is kind of interesting.

Alright then here goes, Large Western CONUS Trough will really start to amplify (Dig south) tonight and create an elongated surface low Pressure from northern KS up through North Dakota. This coupled with a SE Ridge of high pressure will start to really crank up the southern winds which will allow fairly rapid moisutre return tonight into tomorrow afternoon. Low 60 dewpoints should be fairly common across Central and Eastern KS tomorrow.

A dryline Will Set up From Northern Iowa on South Westward through Salina and then on through West Central KS. This Dryline will allow moderate Instability to occur along and to the East of the Dryline. Good Wind shear of 40-45 kts over Central KS should allow storms, if the should form, to stay discrete before they start to line up.

One of the main problems with tomorrows set up is the CAP. Warm air at around 3000M above ground could stop all of the warm air that is rising to rise any further. If the cap is too strong no storms will fire and it will be a sunny day tomorrow. I do not think this is too big a Deal, but I could be wrong. Moisture return could be better (65 dews as opposed to 61 or 62) and it would help if winds were more South Easterly then Straight South or South Westerly.


Here is my best guess as to what will happen: Very Isolated Storms will Fire fairly late in the day somewhere from a line of Salina south to the Pratt/Kingman area. It looks, as of now, that This is by no means a widespread outbreak of severe wx nor will there be a high chance of tornados. An isolated one may happen though. Further north Past Salina up too SE NB/NE KS/ SW Iowa a Line of storms should develop.

[Maggie]

I don't want to get to technical over the weather on this forum, thats for another forum.

You can get technical, if you don’t mind – I think it is kind of interesting.

Alright then here goes, Large Western CONUS Trough will really start to amplify (Dig south) tonight and create an elongated surface low Pressure from northern KS up through North Dakota. This coupled with a SE Ridge of high pressure will start to really crank up the southern winds which will allow fairly rapid moisutre return tonight into tomorrow afternoon. Low 60 dewpoints should be fairly common across Central and Eastern KS tomorrow.

A dryline Will Set up From Northern Iowa on South Westward through Salina and then on through West Central KS. This Dryline will allow moderate Instability to occur along and to the East of the Dryline. Good Wind shear of 40-45 kts over Central KS should allow storms, if the should form, to stay discrete before they start to line up.

One of the main problems with tomorrows set up is the CAP. Warm air at around 3000M above ground could stop all of the warm air that is rising to rise any further. If the cap is too strong no storms will fire and it will be a sunny day tomorrow. I do not think this is too big a Deal, but I could be wrong. Moisture return could be better (65 dews as opposed to 61 or 62) and it would help if winds were more South Easterly then Straight South or South Westerly.


Here is my best guess as to what will happen: Very Isolated Storms will Fire fairly late in the day somewhere from a line of Salina south to the Pratt/Kingman area. It looks, as of now, that This is by no means a widespread outbreak of severe wx nor will there be a high chance of tornados. An isolated one may happen though. Further north Past Salina up too SE NB/NE KS/ SW Iowa a Line of storms should develop.

Thanks....and....Fire bad. Tree pretty. :) Now would you mind explaining - when you get a chance? At least the technical terms. I can guess but would rather not.

[SB Shock]

Longetst Tornado Drought in Kansas history - 262 days and counting. Previous record was 235 days (normal is 178).

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Global warming causes less tornados in Kansas.

We should immediately remove all green initiatives and replace with coal burning manufacturing plants.

I'm kidding. But if it were reverse you know that would be the cause.

[SB Shock]

Longetst Tornado Drought in Kansas history - 262 days and counting. Previous record was 235 days (normal is 178).

I read the story wrong. 262 days is all of kansas. It ended on April 22. The Wichita are CWA has a drought of 281 days and counting.

[BenWSU]

For some odd reason storms make it to Pratt - Die off overnight - Reform near El Dorado the next day.

Vortex2 starts Saturday and so far their isn`t much activity in tornado alley. Had some tornadoes a week ago in eastern CO & Texas panhandle.

[ShockerFever]

I don't want to get to technical over the weather on this forum, thats for another forum.

You can get technical, if you don’t mind – I think it is kind of interesting.

Alright then here goes, Large Western CONUS Trough will really start to amplify (Dig south) tonight and create an elongated surface low Pressure from northern KS up through North Dakota. This coupled with a SE Ridge of high pressure will start to really crank up the southern winds which will allow fairly rapid moisutre return tonight into tomorrow afternoon. Low 60 dewpoints should be fairly common across Central and Eastern KS tomorrow.

A dryline Will Set up From Northern Iowa on South Westward through Salina and then on through West Central KS. This Dryline will allow moderate Instability to occur along and to the East of the Dryline. Good Wind shear of 40-45 kts over Central KS should allow storms, if the should form, to stay discrete before they start to line up.

One of the main problems with tomorrows set up is the CAP. Warm air at around 3000M above ground could stop all of the warm air that is rising to rise any further. If the cap is too strong no storms will fire and it will be a sunny day tomorrow. I do not think this is too big a Deal, but I could be wrong. Moisture return could be better (65 dews as opposed to 61 or 62) and it would help if winds were more South Easterly then Straight South or South Westerly.


Here is my best guess as to what will happen: Very Isolated Storms will Fire fairly late in the day somewhere from a line of Salina south to the Pratt/Kingman area. It looks, as of now, that This is by no means a widespread outbreak of severe wx nor will there be a high chance of tornados. An isolated one may happen though. Further north Past Salina up too SE NB/NE KS/ SW Iowa a Line of storms should develop.

I think you're pretty dead on. The lack of moisture will really kill any threat with this system. I'll honestly be surprised if we hit 62 before dark tomorrow. Temperatures should warm nicely tomorrow. However, with the lack of quality moisture, LCL's will be very high and thus the tornado threat will be limited, at best.

We just aren't getting all the right ingredients at the right time. When we've been in an "outbreak drought" for so long, it really starts to settle in on you just how perfect things have to be for a big day.

Severe weather will occur tomorrow. But like you said, it'll isolated, and for Wichita, we'll probably get a linear band of storms around the overnight hours.