Electoral College Daily Tracking

[DUShock]

SB good analysis. When ya gonna get one those fancy movin' maps for us?

[SB Shock]

Oct 29

Obama 338
McCain 163

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Nevada (O+7, 5 EV)
Colorado (O+7, 9 EV)
Virginia (O+7, 13 EV)
Florida (O+3, 27 EV)
Ohio (O +7, 20 EV)

Missouri (Even, 11 EV)
NC (Even, 15 EV)
Indiana (Even, 11 EV)

West Virginia (M +8, 5 EV)

National Polls

Obama leads in every national tracking poll between 3 to 8 points with an average of +6.0 (-1.0 increase since the last update). The Rasmussen poll has shown a Obama steady lead of 50-45 being cut into with it down to 50-47.

Analysis

The good news for McCain is that the reputable national polls show McCain starting to close the gap some. This is worth watching to see if it just noise or whether there is a real trend.

The state polls are mixed lot some good and some bad for either candidate that you support, but Obama has such a pad that it doesn't really matter. But if there is really a tightening of national polls, this won't be reflected in the state polls now as there seems to be a lag effect. At this point there are no real signs that this election is going to be close.

Senate

There are 11 incumbent republican senator seats that are in play. Out of the 11, 0 are safe for the republicans, 2 look safely democrat and they lead in 7. Democrats need 10 to own a super majority.

New Mexico - Udalll (D) +18
Virginia - Warner (D) +30
Alaska - Begich (D) +2
NC - Hagen (D) +3
Colorado - Udall (D) +7
New Hampshire - Shaheen (D) +6
Oregon - Merkley (D) +7

Minnestoa (Franken) - Tied
Kentucky - Tied

Georgia -Chambliss (R) +2
Miss - Wicker (R) +1/+13

Alaska should go Democrat with the Stevens conviction (and frankly anybody, even a democrat has to be better than Stevens).

The Minnesota race with Franken has a third party candidate (Dean Barkley) that is taking ~18% of the vote. The 3rd party candidate support contains 29% conservative, 27% liberal, 45% independent. So if the 3rd party votes turn to one candidate or the other - it will likely depend on how the independents break.

[SB Shock]

This is the final installment. Tomorrow the real thing will be posted on TV.

Nov 3

Obama 291
McCain 163
Toss Up 84

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Penn (O + 6, 21 EV)
Nevada (O+4, 5 EV)
Colorado (O+4, 9 EV)
Virginia (O+5, 13 EV)

Florida (Even, 27 EV)
Ohio (Even, 20 EV)
Missouri (Even, 11 EV)
NC (Even, 15 EV)
Indiana (Even, 11 EV)

Montana (M +1, 3 EV)
North Dakato (M +1, 3 EV)

My Prediction: Obama 341, McCain 197

National Polls

Obama continues to lead in every national tracking poll between 5 to 11 points with an average of +7.3 (+1.3 increase since the last update).

The Rasmussen poll has Obama at 52-46.

Analysis

The race has tightened up, but not enough (at least per the polls). McCain will likely make the race respectable, but it could easily be an Obama electoral landslide. But the tightening has not been from people switching their minds, but of the undecideds breaking for McCain. Obama strength has remain about the same.

For McCain to win he has win every tossup and then Pull 21 EV from either Penn, or some combination from CO, NV, VA.

What to Watch For

Watch Indiana, they are the first state to close the polls. Watch how McCain does - he's projected to win by a thing margin (1-2%). This will give you a quick idea of how accurate the polling is. If McCain is doing better than projected that is good new for McCain. If Obama is winning then this would indicate that Obama may very likely win overwhelmingly in the electoral college.

2nd state is to watch for is Virginia. Virginia is being projected as save for Obama. If he's doing weaker or McCain would happen to be winning this would be indication that conservative vote turnout has been underestimated in the polls.



Senate

There are 11 incumbent republican senator seats that are in play. Out of the 11, Democrats lead in 7. Democrats need 10 to own a super majority.

New Mexico - Udalll (D) +14
Virginia - Warner (D) +31
Alaska - Begich (D) +22
NC - Hagen (D) +7
Colorado - Udall (D) +15
New Hampshire - Shaheen (D) +6
Oregon - Merkley (D) +3

Minnestoa (Coleman (R) +5
Kentucky - (McConnel (R) +8
Georgia -Chambliss (R) +4
Miss - Wicker (R) +7

Democrats have strengthened their leads in the 6 of 7 states they lead in. Republicans have pulled ahead in the 4 remaining states. So it looks unless there are some unknow upsets, the Republicans will deny the democrats a super majority.

Final Thoughts

Proverbs 21:1 "The king's heart is in the hand of the Lord, like the river of water; He turns it wherever he wishes."

[kcshocker11]

Great job SB! One thing the polls dont factor in is the 14% of people not polled because they are not on landlines anymore. Cell phone only people are an unknown.

[jocoshock]

I will go with these guys.

https://www.fivethirtyeight.com

Obama 346 McCain 192
Obama 52% McCain 46%

Democratic Senate Seats 57

[ShockerFever]

The media is trying to say it's gonna be a close finish, but in reality, it's already over.

[RoyalShock]

Here are a couple of analytic opinions that predict McCain winning:

http://voxday.blogspot.com/2008/11/presidential-prediction-mccain-wins.html

http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2067

[1979Shocker]

Great job SB! One thing the polls dont factor in is the 14% of people not polled because they are not on landlines anymore. Cell phone only people are an unknown.

And most "cell phone only people" are young voters who tend to favor Obama over McCain.

Obama Shows Bigger Lead in Polls That Include Cell Phones

Political polls that include cell phone users show Obama leading McCain by an average of 10 points, versus just over five points in land-line-only surveys, notes a Sunday survey put together by Nate Silver, founder of the electoral projections site FiveThirtyEight.

[jocoshock]

Great job SB! One thing the polls dont factor in is the 14% of people not polled because they are not on landlines anymore. Cell phone only people are an unknown.

And most "cell phone only people" are young voters who tend to favor Obama over McCain.

Obama Shows Bigger Lead in Polls That Include Cell Phones

Political polls that include cell phone users show Obama leading McCain by an average of 10 points, versus just over five points in land-line-only surveys, notes a Sunday survey put together by Nate Silver, founder of the electoral projections site FiveThirtyEight.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/cellphone-effect-continued.html

The polls in the Cingular-y orange color include cellphones in their samples; the polls in gray do not. The cellphone polls have Obama ahead by an average of 9.4 points; the landline-only polls, 5.1 points.