Electoral College Daily Tracking

[RoyalShock]

martymoose,

Her "accent" and folksy ways are nowhere to be heard when she debates in her own state. This appears to be her way of talking down to her new best friends, the Joe sx-packs of America. As anyone can see, a lot of Americans are eating it up.
I challenge anyone to compare her debates in Alaska when she ran for mayor or governor as opposed to a VP candidate, to still think differently.
I find it insulting that she thinks we're ALL that stupid.
Sigh...she's right in so many ways, bless her heart. You betcha.

You think Palin is the mastermind behind her accent?

There are handlers behind the scenes telling every candidate what to say and how to say it. So don't be insulted by the candidates, be insulted by your fellow Americans who eat up "fakery" so that people behind the scenes get paid very well to know what kind(s) of fakery work.

[Ixiah]

Something that would be nice would be a list of how the Senate races are coming. If the democrats get 60 then Obama can pass pretty much anything he wants. If the republicans can hold on to enough of their seats then it will force legislation to be more moderate in nature.

[SubGod22]

I fear he'll have the freedom to do whatever he wants.



Not good for us

[SB Shock]

Right now the democrats are likely to pick up 8 seats (which would give them 59). 2 Out of the 8 seats the Republicans are projected to lose is in Minnesota (Franken winning) and Alaska (Republican Stevens).

Republican weakness is in Georgia where the Republican is 1-2 points ahead and in Mississippi where Wicker is 2-5 points ahead. All other republican seats seem safe at this point.

The best case scenario for the Republicans would be if they only lose 4 seats (win Alaska, Minnesota, NC (Dole) and Oregan.

[WuDrWu]

I'm probably wrong, but I think Carolina holds firm. I also am holding out the even Democrats won't elect that total moron Franken. Jesse the body Ventura was about 4000% more prepared for office than this knucklehead.

Not even 11 or some of his leftist buddies can defend him, can they?


Oregon is a lost cause imho. So is New Mexico and probably Alaska (Stevens should be gone but even a last minute replacement would have a chance against any democrat).

Where does everyone stand on Rep. Foley out of Florida?

[shocrates]

Maybe Jim "I never show up for anything" Slattery needs to move to Minnesota where they will consider electing anybody, even an unfunny comedian.

[rrshock]

Maybe Jim "I never show up for anything" Slattery needs to move to Minnesota where they will consider electing anybody, even an unfunny comedian.

I really wish he wasn't running. Now I'm gonna be forced to not vote for Senator because I think Roberts has been there long enough.

Minnesota might have actually done a good thing by electing that governor. He wasn't in either party, IIRC. He seems to have done a good job up there too.

How many votes does it take to override the presidential veto? Is that only in the Senate, or can the house override too?

[1979Shocker]

How many votes does it take to override the presidential veto? Is that only in the Senate, or can the house override too?

2/3 majority, isn't it?

[rrshock]

So 67 in the Senate and does the house have override power?

[kcshocker11]

I'm probably wrong, but I think Carolina holds firm. I also am holding out the even Democrats won't elect that total moron Franken. Jesse the body Ventura was about 4000% more prepared for office than this knucklehead.

Not even 11 or some of his leftist buddies can defend him, can they?


Oregon is a lost cause imho. So is New Mexico and probably Alaska (Stevens should be gone but even a last minute replacement would have a chance against any democrat).

Where does everyone stand on Rep. Foley out of Florida?

Dont have defend him that will be up to the people of Minnesota. Oh by the way never met the man! 8)

[ABC]

The magic number is 60 in the Senate.

The rules require 60, not 2/3, to debate and thus vote on an issue. It is possible a measure might pass with 55 votes, for example, but that would only because five of those 45 opposing decided not to fillibuster the bill.

For conservatives, there may be a hit for a few years. But, an Obama presidency, coupled with a fillibuster-proof Senate, will probably pass things that will come back to haunt them. That kind of thing is really what brought on the GOP tidal wave in 1994.

If Obama and the D's are not disciplined then there will be another shift in 2010.

Of course some of those things passed will probably harm the country. But a shift can correct those things.

[1979Shocker]

So 67 in the Senate and does the house have override power?

Here it is from Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veto_override

In the United States, Congress can override a presidential veto by having a two-thirds majority vote in both the House of Representatives and Senate, thus enacting the bill into law despite the president's veto. However, a veto may not be overridden if it is a pocket veto, a veto in which the president simply ignores a bill between congressional sessions. The veto override is an example of checks and balances, the process in which various branches of the U.S. government can limit each others' power.

[SB Shock]

Oct 15

Obama 364
McCain 174

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Missouri (O +2, 11 EV)
Nevada (O+3, 5 EV)
NC (O+1, 15 EV)
Ohio (O+3, 20 EV)
Floriday (O+5, 27 EV)
Colorado (O+5, 9 EV)

Indiana (M+4, 11 EV)
West Virginia (M +1, 5 EV)

National Polls

Obama leads in every national tracking poll between 4 to 10 points with an average of +6.8 (-0.8 increase since the last update)

Analysis

This is mainly to capture the national picture before the final debate. The outlook has not changed much since the previous one - Obama is winning and winning rather easily. The bouncing around is mainly noise as McCain Campaign has no cohrent message as far as I can tell. The only thing is, there are still alot of undecideds that McCain can hang on.

There is only 2 things that might turn this election:

1. McCain dominates tonight - I personally don't see this happening. Obama is to good to no be ready to counter the obvious axes of attack that McCain will try and he's not going to be able to outspend Obama.

McCain needs something dramatic. Obama just needs to not make a stupid mistake and be prepared to counter attack any main McCain thrust.

2. October Suprise. If there is one I would look for it somewhere between Oct 24-Oct 28. Enough time to have an effect, but not enough time for it to be countered effectively.

[SB Shock]

Oct 21

Obama 317
McCain 221

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Missouri (O +5, 11 EV)
NC (O+3, 15 EV)
Nevada (O+5, 5 EV)
Colorado (O+5, 9 EV)
Virginia (O+10, 13 EV)

Florida (M+1, 27 EV)
Ohio (M+2, 20 EV)
West Virginia (M +1, 5 EV)

National Polls

Obama leads in every national tracking poll between 4 to 10 points with an average of +6.9 (+0.1 increase since the last update). The Rasmussen poll has shown a steady Obama lead of 50-46/45 for about the last 8 days. This is slightly down for Obama as 10 days ago when he lead 52-45.

Analysis
I guess the [limited] good news for McCain is Ohio and Florida have tilted back in his favor. The good news for Obama is Virginia has surged to +10 for Obama (I left this on the list of states in play to illustrate McCain problem). McCain needs to shift 49 of the 53 EV over to his side - if Virginia is +10 for Obama there is no way this is going to happen unless something dramatic happens.

Another worrisome sign is the republican rats have started deserting the ship. I guess the real hope for the Republicans is that Biden, Pelosi, Franks continue to feel embolden to yap.

Franks - budget deficit, this is not a time to worry about the deficit. We must spend.....

Pelosi - guarantees a Obama win

Biden - Electing Obama will result in a international crisis in 6 months. Way to go Joe!!!!! Remember what Biden said about Obama in the primary and what he said about McCain? I'm sure the McCain campaign will but cutting footage as we speak (unless they incompetent like some of republican rats say).

Senate

There are 11 incumbent republican senator seats that are in play. Out of the 11, 0 are safe for the republicans, 2 look safely democrat and they lead in 7. Democrats need 10 to own a super majority.

New Mexico - Udalll (D) +20
Virginia - Warner (D) +27
Alaska - Begich (D) +2
NC - Hagen (D) +1
Colorado - Udall (D) +7
Minnesota - Franken (D) +2.2
New Hampshire - Shaheen (D) +2

Kentucky - Tied
Oregon - Tied

Georgia -Chambliss (R) +2
Miss - Wicker (R) +1

[SB Shock]

When you start seeing meltdown stories - you know the end is near:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14891.html

Top Republican officials have let it be known they are distressed about McCain’s organization. Coordination between the McCain campaign and Republican National Committee, always uneven, is now nearly dysfunctional, with little high-level contact and intelligence-sharing between the two.

Morale, even among some of the heartiest and most loyal staffers, has plummeted. And many past and current McCain advisors are warring with each other over who led the candidate astray.

One well-connected Republican in the private sector was shocked to get calls and resumes in the past few days from what he said were senior McCain aides – a breach of custom for even the worst-off campaigns.

“It’s not an extraordinarily happy place to be right now,” said one senior McCain aide. “I’m not gonna lie. It’s just unfortunate.”

A circular firing squad is among the most familiar political rituals of a campaign when things aren’t going well. But it is rare for campaign aides to be so openly participating in it well before Election Day.

A McCain official gave this appraisal:

“We have a real chance in Pennsylvania. We are in trouble in Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. We have lost Iowa and New Mexico. We are OK in Missouri, Ohio and Florida. Our voter intensity is good and we can match their buy dollar for dollar starting today till the election. It’s a long shot but it’s worth fighting for.”

If this is true that NV (5), CO (9), VA (13) and PA (21) are the only states in play for either candidate, that would leave McCain at 247, Obama at 291 then McCain would need to move 23 out of the 48. That would be either:

PA, VA
VA, NV, CO
PA, CO
PA, NV
PA, VA NV, CO