Electoral College Daily Tracking

[SB Shock]

Oct 1

Obama 286
McCain 205

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Minnesota (O+4, 10 EV)
Virginia (O+1, 13 EV)
New Hampshire (O +1, 4 EV)
Colorado (O +3, 9 EV)

Ohio (Even, 20 EV)
Florida (Even, 27 EV)

Nevada (M+2, 5 EV)
Missouri (M+2, 11 EV)
Indiana (M+3, 11 EV)
NC (M+1, 15 EV)

National Polls

Obama leads in every national tracking poll between 2 to 9 pionts with an average of +5.3.




Analysis

If your McCain supporter - there really is nothing positive for McCain he's losing in national polls and in the battleground states. Unless McCain is somehow able to do something quick it will be all over but the counting of the votes.

If your Obama supporter, Obama pretty much can go into a "prevent defense" mode and ride the wave to victory.

Tomorrow night will probably wrap it up for Obama. I expect the debate between Palin/Biden will turns into the Tina Fey/Biden debate- it will be all but over then unless McCain fires Palin and chooses Hillary as his running mate.

[ABC]

Who is doing the analysis?

[1979Shocker]

since picking Palin, there has been a 20% swing among female voters. I think Hussein Obama just pooped in his nest by not picking "Her Thighness" (Hillary)
:yahoo:

That swing of female voters has gone back to Obama and then some.

Polls show Barack Obama boost from economic crisis

The economic crisis in America appears to be giving Barack Obama a significant boost in his presidential race against John McCain, with a series of polls yesterday showing growing support for the Democrat.

One survey released last night showed women flocking to the Illinois senator, with Mr McCain losing female voters at a faster rate than Sarah Palin, his running-mate, attracted them after her extraordinary entry into the race nearly five weeks ago.

[ABC]

The gender gap b/t Rs and Ds is a myth.

It is a single women gap.

Married women vote reliably for Republicans and it isn't any different now.

[SB Shock]

Oct 4

Obama 353
McCain 185

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Virginia (O+3, 13 EV)
Nevada (O+1, 5 EV)
Colorado (O +3, 9 EV)
Florida (O +2, 27 EV)
Ohio (O+2, 20 EV)
NC (O+2, 15 EV)

Missouri (M+1, 11 EV)
Indiana (M+2, 11 EV)

National Polls

Obama leads in every national tracking poll between 3 to 9 points with an average of +5.9 (+0.6 increase since the last update)

Analysis

If your a McCain supporter, you have three hopes. Somehow there is going to be a Palin bump (only 1 of 3 days are in the polls after the debate). The 2nd hope is that the pollsters are under representing Republicans in their polls. There are some pundits that believe pollsters are under representing conservative in their polls to help Obama. They think they are trying to create despair in McCain supporters such that they basically quit. Problem with this theory the polls are all running consistently bad for McCain (you wouldn't think they are all in this conspiracy).

3rd hope is that banking/Wall Street fiasco some how turns around. Every day this drags on people are reminded of this McCain quote

the economy is not my strong point

If your Obama supporter. It's all good. Obama has McCain pinned at the 1 yard line with 1:30 left and McCain only has 2 timeouts left and McCain needs a TD and 2 point conversion to win. The odds are stacked against McCain. Not only does Obama have no weakness, but McCain is losing states he should have carried. Send Biden somewhere were there is no TV coverage and muzzle him now. Obama biggest decision is how to mix up his "blitzs" with his "prevent" defense to keep the McCain campaign off balance.

[kcshocker11]

Oct 4

Obama 353
McCain 185

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Virginia (O+3, 13 EV)
Nevada (O+1, 5 EV)
Colorado (O +3, 9 EV)
Florida (O +2, 27 EV)
Ohio (O+2, 20 EV)
NC (O+2, 15 EV)

Missouri (M+1, 11 EV)
Indiana (M+2, 11 EV)

National Polls

Obama leads in every national tracking poll between 3 to 9 points with an average of +5.9 (+0.6 increase since the last update)

Analysis

If your a McCain supporter, you have three hopes. Somehow there is going to be a Palin bump (only 1 of 3 days are in the polls after the debate). The 2nd hope is that the pollsters are under representing Republicans in their polls. There are some pundits that believe pollsters are under representing conservative in their polls to help Obama. They think they are trying to create despair in McCain supporters such that they basically quit. Problem with this theory the polls are all running consistently bad for McCain (you wouldn't think they are all in this conspiracy).

3rd hope is that banking/Wall Street fiasco some how turns around. Every day this drags on people are reminded of this McCain quote

the economy is not my strong point

If your Obama supporter. It's all good. Obama has McCain pinned at the 1 yard line with 1:30 left and McCain only has 2 timeouts left and McCain needs a TD and 2 point conversion to win. The odds are stacked against McCain. Not only does Obama have no weakness, but McCain is losing states he should have carried. Send Biden somewhere were there is no TV coverage and muzzle him now. Obama biggest decision is how to mix up his "blitzs" with his "prevent" defense to keep the McCain campaign off balance.

Interesting analysis I sorta agree 8)

[Ixiah]

McCain's support of the bail out = last straw. He really needed to be on the other side of that bill and I think that will show on election day.

[SubGod22]

I weep for this country

[BostonWu]

Rearview mirror is 20/20 but I believe if McCain would have gone with the CW and selected Romney he’d be in the driver’s seat…And I say rearview mirror due to the banking/wall street crisis. The fact is Romney is the only financial/economic expert out there who would have been in his element telling the American people what went wrong and how he’s the right candidate to get things back on track. Believe me, in that element he would have sounded ever-so assuring. Instead we have Palin trying her best to regurgitate the talking points…Maverick…energy independence…hockey mom…blah blah blah. In this case McCain blew it by not playing it safe.

[SubGod22]

McCain went with the best choice to get conservatives to give him a shot. You're probably right that Romney would look good now with the economy issue, but I believe McCain would have lost a lot of support from the conservative base of the party and and the conservative independents. I was almost certain he'd choose Romney and piss off a lot of people.

I still say that either one of these two being president scares me. One just scares me a hell of a lot more than the other. The next four years aren't going to be good no matter who's in the WH.

[engrshock]

McCain went with the best choice to get conservatives to give him a shot. You're probably right that Romney would look good now with the economy issue, but I believe McCain would have lost a lot of support from the conservative base of the party and and the conservative independents. I was almost certain he'd choose Romney and piss off a lot of people.

I still say that either one of these two being president scares me. One just scares me a hell of a lot more than the other. The next four years aren't going to be good no matter who's in the WH.

That would make 12 years in a row.

[ABC]

Rearview mirror is 20/20 but I believe if McCain would have gone with the CW and selected Romney he’d be in the driver’s seat…And I say rearview mirror due to the banking/wall street crisis. The fact is Romney is the only financial/economic expert out there who would have been in his element telling the American people what went wrong and how he’s the right candidate to get things back on track. Believe me, in that element he would have sounded ever-so assuring. Instead we have Palin trying her best to regurgitate the talking points…Maverick…energy independence…hockey mom…blah blah blah. In this case McCain blew it by not playing it safe.

I am not sure I agree. (I am not sure of much right now)

Romney was a part of the Wall Street industry that might have been hung around McCain like an albatross.

Palin continues to be a net-positive. Did you see the crowd this morning in Florida for her? Romney might've had a few bankers at the country club show up. McCain is not drawing those crowds either.

Palin is on the offensive re: Obama's character problems. As an amateur political scientist, it is fascninating to see if the sweet hockey mom throwing bombs at Obama will work or not. I think it will be far more effective than if Romeny were doing it.

[engrshock]

Does McCain talk or is it just Palin. Kind of sad that the VP candicake overshadows the Presidential nominee.

[SubGod22]

Does McCain talk or is it just Palin. Kind of sad that the VP candicake overshadows the Presidential nominee.

Now if only the McCain campaign would let her be herself...

[ABC]

Does McCain talk or is it just Palin. Kind of sad that the VP candicake overshadows the Presidential nominee.

Have you not been wathcing the TV coverage of the election?

McCain has been talking plenty.

The campaign is smart to have Palin out talking about what she is talking about. Meanwhile Biden tells people that Hillary would have been a better choice.