Electoral College Daily Tracking

[ABC]

Obama 217
McCain 174
Toss ups 147

Obama 273
McCain 265 (with no toss ups)

Colorado 45.3 44.3 Obama +1.0
Nevada 44.3 45.3 McCain +1.0
Michigan 45.3 42.0 Obama +3.3
Ohio 44.0 45.3 McCain +1.3
Pennsylvania 48.0 43.3 Obama +4.7
Florida 43.4 46.0 McCain +2.6

[SB Shock]

Sept

Obama 281
McCain 244

First new battleground states have came out:

Ohio McCain +7
MI Obama +1
Penn. Obama +2
Virginia McCain +2 (2 polls show same)
Florida Tie
Colorado Obama +3

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Colorado (O+3, 9 EV)
Nevada (O+3, 5 EV)
New Hampshire (O+1, 4 EV)
N. Dakota (O +3, 3 EV)
Michigan (O +1, 17)
Penn (O +2, 21)

Florida (M+1, 27 EV)
Montana (M+1, 3 EV)
NC (M+3, 15 EV)
N. Dakato (M+3, 3 EV)
S. Dakota (M+4, 3 EV)
Ohio (M + 7, 20 EV

Tied
Virginia (45-45, 13 EV)

Analysis

The Michigan poll potentially shows Obama weakness. PPP (Public Policy Polling) is democratic polling unit that has been very favorable to Obama and they are showing Michigan a dead heat. Michigan was not suppose to be in play for McCain. Also Pennsylvania might be in play which would be another danger sign for Obama (caveat there is alot of undecided democratic voters in the Penn poll so it may not be as close as the poll might indicate).

McCain weakness looks to be more in Florida than Ohio. He can not afford to lose either one of these states. McCain is winning with independents in OH and VA, Obama with independents in Colorado, Florida and Penn.

Overall, the polls are pretty much back to where it was before the conventions. The battleground states are all within the margin of error. The question most pundits are talking about is whether McCain move is sustainable and will grow due to the Palin factor or will the bounce start subsiding. The way it stands he still has to make things happen.

Meanwhile the Obama campaign is probably feeling pretty safe. He isn't really facing any challenge in blue states, he's running strong in puple states and he's challenging in red states. He is in position to deliver a knockout blow.


On this day in 2004, Kerry lead at 264 to 222 for Bush.

[Denny Crane]

Meanwhile the Obama campaign is probably feeling pretty safe.

You really think so?

[double dribble]

I think Obama probably pooped his panty when he saw the latest poll of likely voters, McCain up by 10.
In fact I would be willing to bet that his whole campaign team had a collective poop fest. You could probably find more soiled panties there than disguarded flags.

[WuDrWu]

I won't start a new thread but the media bias over msnbc is in full throttle.

The MSN homepage has not a mention of the new polling data but they do tell you front and center than Bush is going to leave the Iraq problem for the next President.

On the MSNBC page I give them credit. The new polling data can be found via a link, 1/2 way down the page, buried 5 lines below the title "US foils Iraqi terror plot in bakery".

Those folks just don't get it...........oh well, at least abysmal ratings got them to dump Keith and crazy hair man from their anchor roles on the political scene.....

What is the over under on the number of months Rachel Feminazi keeps her time slot?

[1979Shocker]

The MSN homepage has not a mention of the new polling data but they do tell you front and center than Bush is going to leave the Iraq problem for the next President.

On the MSNBC page I give them credit. The new polling data can be found via a link, 1/2 way down the page, buried 5 lines below the title "US foils Iraqi terror plot in bakery".

It really depends when you went to the msnbc.com homepage. Since their homepage is constantly being update with new stories, older stories get moved down. If you looked earlier in the day, you would have seen the link to the polling data at the top of the page. I even started another thread called McCain moves ahead of Obama in new poll just after 12pm today that was the link you're talking about when it was at the top of the page. That's how I found it. That link is no longer at the top because of newer stories.

[Tyrone Shoelace]

since picking Palin, there has been a 20% swing among female voters. I think Hussein Obama just pooped in his nest by not picking "Her Thighness" (Hillary)
:yahoo:

[SB Shock]

Sept 9

Obama 281
McCain 257

More polls starting to roll out.

Florida - McCain +5
Michigan - Obama +1
Virginia - McCain +2 (two polls)
Wisconson - Obama +3

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Colorado (O+3, 9 EV)
Nevada (O+3, 5 EV)
New Hampshire (O+1, 4 EV)
N. Dakota (O +3, 3 EV)
Michigan (O +1, 17)
Penn (O +2, 21)
Washington (O +4, 11 EV)

Florida (M+1, 27 EV)
Montana (M+1, 3 EV)
NC (M+3, 15 EV)
N. Dakato (M+3, 3 EV)
S. Dakota (M+4, 3 EV)
Ohio (M + 7, 20 EV
Virginia (M +2, 13)


Analysis

Lots of polls came out today. The Red and Blue states basically showed no weakening for either candidate (i.e. North Carolin +20 McCain, OK +33 McCain, Maryland +14 Obama).

In the battleground states there is a weakening for Obama. In fact Obama has as many states that he has risk as McCain does. But at the same time Obama is looking at the viability of Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

Oh, Obama's Pastor has been having an affair.


On this day in 2004, Bush lead at 254 to 243 for Kerry.

[wu_shizzle]

This was the electoral map August 18, 2004.
Kerry 317, Bush 202.
Sound familiar?

[SB Shock]

This was the electoral map August 18, 2004.
Kerry 317, Bush 202.
Sound familiar?

The 2004 trends were very dependent on the day

[SB Shock]

Sept 11

Obama 268
McCain 270

Polling Galore. Two polls out in Colorado showing Obama winning by +3 and +1. Two polls out in Florida showing McCain winning easily with +7/+8.

Michigan had two polls showing split results (Obama +5, McCain +1)

Ohio had 3 polls with McCain winning 2 of 3.


States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Colorado (O+3, 9 EV)
New Hampshire (O+1, 4 EV)
Michigan (O +2, 17)
Penn (O +2, 21)
Washington (O +4, 11 EV)

Florida (M+1, 27 EV)
Montana (M+1, 3 EV)
NC (M+3, 15 EV)
N. Dakato (M+3, 3 EV)
S. Dakota (M+4, 3 EV)
Ohio (M + 2, 20 EV
Virginia (M +2, 13)
Nevada (M+1, 5 EV)

Analysis

McCain for the first time pushed past Obama in the electoral college with the help of New Mexico and Nevada. But I suspect you will see the lead be a sea-saw battle because the polls are in very tight and in the margin of error.

There are kinks being shown in the democratic armor, almost panic from some quarters. The question is can the McCain/Palin keep the momentum, or will Obama stop the surge here?

I still don't think the Obama campaign is worried yet. I expect they are biding their time weighting to launch their fall offensive.

Also, there are a lot of independents still undecided (~8%), watch the polls and look to the independents. How they break will probably decide the race.

On this day in 2004, Bush behind with 233 to 273 for Kerry.

[SB Shock]

Sept 12

Obama 268
McCain 270

Polls came out for Mizzou, NC, Ohio and Washington. McCain lead in all but Washington. Obama leads in Washington by 2%. Bush lost in Washington by 7%.

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Colorado (O+3, 9 EV)
New Hampshire (O+1, 4 EV)
Michigan (O +2, 17)
Penn (O +2, 21)
Washington (O +4, 11 EV)

Florida (M+1, 27 EV)
Montana (M+1, 3 EV)
NC (M+3, 15 EV)
N. Dakato (M+3, 3 EV)
S. Dakota (M+4, 3 EV)
Ohio (M + 2, 20 EV
Virginia (M +2, 13)
Nevada (M+1, 5 EV)

Analysis

McCain is still running strong. It was interesting to see clips of McCain on the view. From the clips I saw, It looked like he did a nice job. McCain likes meeting with people and talking with them.

The MSM seems to be panicking. I saw one news woman (she was not a commentator, but was anchoring the hourly news) on CNN drop all pretense of being neutral and was trying to shred Palin on her interview with ABC. It is personal attack after personal attack.

MSM was even breaking down Palin body language from the ABC interview. Their take was even though she sounded confident and she was forcefull, her body language and blinking eyes betrayed she was stressed and had no confidence. It's got to make you laugh.

The Obama camp continues its daily probes. They are trying out new slogans each day to try and see if anything can stick. They are looking for that Clintonesque type "It's the economy stupid". It does seem that the Obama camaign is getting a little panicky. They seem to be getting away from the issues and now are starting to go to "personal attacks".





On this day in 2004, Bush behind with 233 to 273 for Kerry.

[SB Shock]

Sept 13

Obama 268
McCain 270

Wide range of polls came out (mainly from Zogby).

Zogby (and others) has McCain winning in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Okie, Pennsylvania, South Dakato, Utah and Virginia.

Obama was winning in Michigan, North Carolina, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregan and Washington.

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Colorado (O+3, 9 EV)
New Hampshire (O+1, 4 EV)
Michigan (O +2, 17)
Penn (O +2, 21)
Washington (O +4, 11 EV)

Florida (M+1, 27 EV)
Montana (M+1, 3 EV)
NC (M+3, 15 EV)
N. Dakato (M+3, 3 EV)
S. Dakota (M+4, 3 EV)
Ohio (M + 2, 20 EV
Virginia (M +2, 13)
Nevada (M+1, 5 EV)

Analysis

McCain has to like his showing New Hampshire, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile Obama had to feel good that Michigan and Washington doesn't look so close and if he could win North Carolina that would be a huge feather. Though some are railing at these results from Zogby that they are inferior because they are internet polling.

The McCain bump has also had also bumped the congressional races.

NPR contrast Obama and McCain health care solutions.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94299324

On this day in 2004, Bush behind with 233 to 269 for Kerry.[/url]

[SB Shock]

Sept 18

Obama 236
McCain 233

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Michigan (O +3, 17 EV)
Washington (O +4, 11 EV)
Oregon (O +4, 7 EV)
Wisconson (O+2, 10 EV)
Minnesota (O+1, 10 EV)

Penn (EVEN, 21 EV)
Florida (EVEN, 27 EV)
Ohio (EVEN, 20 EV)
Iowa (EVEN, 7 EV)

Indiana (M+2, 11 EV)
Colorado (M+1, 9 EV)
Nevada (M+2, 5 EV)
Virginia (M +2, 13 EV)


Analysis

Obama has overcome the McCain bounce in the national polls. Gallup he is +4, CBS +5. Rasumussen has him tied. Battleground poll has McCain as +2. But all the constant negativity and attacks by the media has taken the bounce out of McCain/Palin, plus then add in the fiasco on Wallstreet. Not unexpected as most thought this would happen.

In the Gallup Poll, Obama is winning with the <29 and >65. McCain is winning with 30-64 year old. Christians support McCain, non-Christians support Obama.

McCain is winning with HS to College graduates. Obama is winning with the uneducated and highly educated (Masters +).

McCain is winning with Men, Obama is winning with women. Though Obama support is weaking with women.

79% of those polled believe the media is reporting on negative campaigning instead of reporting on the issues.

Only 24-25% believe McCain/Obama are confident that either candidate can bring the kind of change needed.

49% of people are worried that federal government will do to much. 36% are worried that the government will do to little.


Meanwhile in the battleground states have tightened up with 4 states in a tie, with another 9 states withing the margin of error. This is good news and bad news for both candidates. Obama in Penn and Iowa, two states he wasn't expecting to have to battle over. McCain is showing weakness Florida and Ohio the two states he CAN NOT lose. I think things will bounce up and down until the first debate.

Democrats are now starting to worry about the "Bradley Effect". In fact our own Governor was talking about it this week. The Obama campaign doesn't believe in it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

Some believe the "Bradley Effect" may have been true, but our society has moved forward. Some believe that Obama lost to Hillary in New Hampshire due to the "Bradley Effect". Obama was leading by 13 points but lost by 3 points. If there is a "Bradley Effect", then Obama would need approximately 6-8% lead to overcome it.

On this day in 2004, Bush behind with 327 to 211 for Kerry.

[SB Shock]

Sept 26

Obama 286
McCain 252

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)


Minnesota (O+1, 10 EV)
Virginai (O+1, 13 EV)
New Hampshire (O +1, 4 EV)

Nevada (M+2, 5 EV)
Missouri (M+2, 11 EV)
Indiana (M+3, 11 EV)
Ohio (M+2, 20 EV)
NC (M+2, 15 EV)
Florida (M+2, 27 EV)


Analysis

McCain bounce is gone and with the Wall Street fiasco McCain is taking a beating. In a Washington Post-ABC news poll this week:

Q. He knows enough about world affairs to serve effectively as president

Obama 56% Yes
McCain 72% Yes

Q. He would be good Commander in Chief

Obama - 48% Yes
McCain - 72% Yes

Q. Who would bring more change to Washington DC

Obama - 58%
McCain - 33%

Q. Who do you trust to handle the economy

Obama - 53%
McCain - 39%

Q. Fixing the ecoonmy

Obama - 51%
McCain - 39%

BTW, the above poll is an example of how the media is trying to shape perception. When you look at the details underlying the poll, this poll had had significantly more women than men and more liberals.Being that said this poll did underline McCain strength and weaknesses

Bottomline this poll showed, McCain has the respect of the people to lead the country (foriegn affairs, CINC) except they don't really believe he's the "Maverick" and can get the economy on track. The economy will triumph.

Frankly McCain has to win this debate tonight and win convincingly, otherwise, Obama momentum may become unstoppable.