Electoral College Daily Tracking

[SB Shock]

Sept 1

Obama 278
McCain 247

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Colorado (O+2, 9 EV)
Nevada (O+3, 5 EV)
New Hampshire (O+1, 4 EV)

Florida (M+1, 27 EV)
Montana (M+1, 3 EV)
NC (M+3, 15 EV)
N. Dakato (M+3, 3 EV)
Ohio (M+1, 20 EV)
S. Dakota (M+4, 3 EV)

Tied
Virginia (45-45, 13 EV)

Analysis

Republican position is very tenuous and you can see how easy this could become a Obama landslide with the Republicans who have 71 Electoral Votes within 4% and the Democrats only have 18.

But if you do expand the criteria from 4% to 5%, then the Democrats seem a little more vulnerable. This adds 14 EV's for Republican and 58 EV's for Democrats in play.

On this day in 2004, Bush lead at 280 to 242 for Kerry.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[SB Shock]

Sept 2

Obama 278
McCain 247

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Remained unchanged from yesterday.

Obama Pickup from 2004: Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico

McCain Pickups from 2004: None

Analysis

Obama bump is now occurring (2 to 8 points). Polls are now showing him on average of around +3. Some polls are showing him as much of +8 or +9 range. Closest poll for McCain is Obama +2 in the CNN poll. On average the bump for Obama has been 4.4%, this is slightly below the average of 6% bump.

McCain support is not weakening, but it looks to be a move of undecided to Obama (Clinton supporters). McCain has to brunt this move this week or this has the potential to become a landslide for Obama.


On this day in 2004, Bush lead at 270 to 250 for Kerry.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[WuDrWu]

All things considered, it could and maybe should be a lot worse for McCain.

Personally, I think he is going to have a BIG week......but I also do not think it will last.

At least they are finally raising some money to compete with Obama's printing press......


The more troubling item is the Senate and the House...both those institutions are almost certainly going to add to an already left lean....the only question is how much.

All 3 under the Dems is beyond bad.....we've got trouble my friends....trouble right here in River City......


We're in terrible terrible trouble....that game with the 15 numbered balls is the devil's tool....DEVIL'S TOOL.....Oh yes we've got trouble trouble trouble

With a capital T


And that rhymes with P


and that stands for pool...

[rayc]

Rasmussen also includes a similar report.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 183 votes (see Quick Campaign Overview). When leaners are included, it’s Obama 264, McCain 247 (see 50-State Summary).

The difference is 14 EV for Obama in States Rasmussen apparently still considers a toss up and gives to neither candidate. A very close race by either account.

[SB Shock]

Sept 3

Obama 278
McCain 247

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Very little polling going on except daily national tracking polls.

Analysis

Obama lead in the Gallup dropped from +8 to +6 (basically polling noise). Most analysis of polling data seemed to say there is 1-2 day lag before you see any results.

Obama bump in the Gallup poll was from the firming up white democratic support (increased from 74% to 82%).

McCain support among Republicans is at ~90%. McCain path to victory therefore has to come from independents.

Polls on Palin to this point is showing the following results:

Q1: Was Palin the right choice?
39% Yes, 39% No

Q2: Is she ready to be president?
29% Yes, 48% No

60% Republicans Said Yes, 74% Democrats Said No


On this day in 2004, Bush lead at 270 to 252 for Kerry.

[SB Shock]

Sept 4

Obama 298
McCain 227

Three state polls came out today - Iowa, Minn, Ohio
Obama lead increased in Iowa from 50%-43% to 55%-40%
Obama lead increased in Minnesota from 48%-38% to 53%-41%
Ohio had been even to slightly behind McCain, Ohio has now is Obama at 47% - 45%

Nearly as many people watched Palin last night than watched Obama speech.

Analysis

This is the break point where Obama is getting his maximum bump from the convention and now McCain should start seeing the opposite bump (or his is in trouble).

Mixed results on Palin. Depending on who you read you find conflicting answers of whether she's going to make a difference with Independents.

Only thing that can be said is she's energized both bases. Obama has raised 8-10 million dollars since her speech.

On this day in 2004, Bush lead at 270 to 252 for Kerry.

[SB Shock]

Sept 5

Obama 301
McCain 224

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

3 polls released today.

North Dakota moves to Obama (43% to 40%)
Indiana tightens up (McCain 45%, 43% for Obama)
Alaska is no longer at risk for McCain :D (went from 44%-39% to 54% to 35%)


Analysis

McCain continues to struggle in states he shouldn't have a problem carrying. You would have thought if McCain was going to show a bump due to the Paulin nomination, these three states would be good candidates - only in Alaska did it occur. This doesn't bode well for McCain.

The daily tracking polls are seem to be settling out around with Obama at
+2 to +4.

On other fields it looks like the Democrats will significantly expand control in all areas. The projections for the senate and house are:

Senate: Dem 56, GOP 43
House: Dem 243, GOP 192

This probably explains why Lieberman has taken so big of risk with his full support of McCain. The democrats won't need him next year and will strip him of any chairmanships.

It is looking like we will know what the conservative Venezuelans have been going through as our goverment is about to take a big swing to the left.


On this day in 2004, Bush lead at 270 to 252 for Kerry.

[WuDrWu]

1st - This guy is left of left.

2nd - none of the polls in the battlegound states have taken place after the 2 big Republican speeches. Let's wait and see what happens with polls taken Sept 5-8 before we crown the next king.

If Ohio, Virginia, North Dakota & Colorado move 3 points then McCain would be ahead. I'm not saying it is or isn't likely, but BHO hasn't taken the oath just yet.

[SB Shock]

1st - This guy is left of left.

I'm actually using three primary sites for looking at the daily movement in electoral college.

Reference 1 http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Reference 1 has the best analysis and opinion of at least how they interpret what the daily polls actually mean (if anything) and doesn't seem slanted.

Reference 2 provides the best summary of the electoral college daily snapshot is easy to see the state trends graphically. I don't really read much of the analysis on this site - but you could be right as his most of his analysis is negative towards McCain - but it still a good summary to track the electoral college.

Reference 3 Is a good site that compiles all stories/analysis/polling that is going on from all perspectives.

2nd - none of the polls in the battlegound states have taken place after the 2 big Republican speeches.

That is a valid point. It will be interesting to see what happens.

If Ohio, Virginia, North Dakota & Colorado move 3 points then McCain would be ahead. I'm not saying it is or isn't likely, but BHO hasn't taken the oath just yet.

Things are really stacking up against McCain. You have media members instead of reporting news, asking questions and just flagrantly spouting the Obama talking points and arguing with anything anti-Obama. In the past there was at least a pretending of trying to be neutral.

But I guess on the positive side is the Palin equation has changed the dynamics and time will tell if it is a game changer. Who would have thought the democrats would be arguing whether Obama was better qualified than the Republican VP nominee.

[Shirley Schmidt]

It is all over but the shouting.


Maybe I can pick up the lease on Alec Baldwin's home in France.


American Held Hostage by Barry Hussein Obama.


It will be interesting times.

[SFL]

It is all over but the shouting.

Come on Shirley... there's always a chance.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mff6uPddUbw&feature=related

[SB Shock]

Sept 6-7

Obama 301
McCain 224

No state polls released over this period, only national polls. McCain shows his bump in national poll.

Gallup: McCain +3 (48% to 45%)
Rasmussen: Tied

States in Play (O = Obama, M = McCain)

Colorado (O+2, 9 EV)
Nevada (O+3, 5 EV)
New Hampshire (O+1, 4 EV)
N. Dakota (O +3, 3 EV)
Ohio (O +2, 20 EV)

Florida (M+1, 27 EV)
Montana (M+1, 3 EV)
NC (M+3, 15 EV)
N. Dakato (M+3, 3 EV)
S. Dakota (M+4, 3 EV)

Tied
Virginia (45-45, 13 EV)

Analysis

I think McCain has to be happy, he's came out of the conventions with nothing decided and his convention has changed the lay of the land.

It's comical that we see the democrats continue to debate that Obama is more qualified to be president than Palin. Welcome to Rock Star politics.

Best analysis of what this nation needs as the President of US come from David Frumm.

I value executive skill more than most conservatives do I think. Some NRO readers seem to imagine it's just a matter of having the right convictions and sticking by them. I think it is way more complicated than that. A good executive requires convictions yes. And backbone agreed. But a good executive needs a solid floor of background knowledge so that he / she can sift sense from nonsense in policy proposals. A good executive must be willing to listen to a wide range of views, including some that are not immediately acceptable. A good executive must have a sense of timing: avoiding the equal evils of haste and procrastination. A good executive must have the power to explain and defend his / her actions to a wide variety of audiences, from the largest to the most specialized.

On this day in 2004, Bush lead at 275 to 237 for Kerry.

[Snapshot9]

McCains 'ideas' is what will kill him, Palin or no Palin. He's says he will fight for change, the only problem are the changes he wants. His ideas are antiquated, and not in the best interests for the country as a whole.

Staying in Iraq, and I am a 3 time Vietnam vet, is an exercise in futility, and not one that we will win in the long run.

We need internal country changes to be able to maintain our country and the status quo we have always enjoyed.

[SB Shock]

We need internal country changes to be able to maintain our country and the status quo we have always enjoyed.

What kind of internal country changes exactly are you talking about?

[RoyalShock]

We need internal country changes to be able to maintain our country and the status quo we have always enjoyed.

What kind of internal country changes exactly are you talking about?

1. Pull out of Iraq.

2. Shift the war to one on illegal immigration.

3. Decrease our military presence around the world.

4. Reduce and eliminate unnecessary and unconstitutional federal beauracracies (Dept. of Ed comes to mind).

5. Develop sound monetary policy.