Severe Weather 2015

[SB Shock]

SPC finally upgrades tomorrow to an enhanced risk. Still believe we will see a moderate risk for tomorrow.

How high do you see the tornado threat tomorrow?

[wsushox1]

How high do you see the tornado threat tomorrow?

Any storm that stays discrete and forms tomorrow will have all the capabilities to produce a long track, damaging tornado. The only issue is this, the area where storms can form is so small. I see 1-3 supercells at MOST tomorrow evening. If 2 storms form, stay isolated, the atmosphere is PRIME for violent supercells. Hail will be incredibly large tomorrow with ANY storm that forms.

To get technical....you have surface CAPE well over 3000 j/kg with very looped hodographs with Helicity values over 400, not to mention cloud bases around 500meters....that's a very juicy tornadic set-up. Storms will barely have to rotate to produce a tornado, with shear this good they will be rotating much stronger than "barely".

For example...the Wichita National Weather Forecast Discussion....

BUT
CERTAINLY THINK THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL OF
2 INCHES OR GREATER AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT WINDS........0-8KM SHEAR SUGGESTS ANY TORNADO THAT DEVELOPS...MAY END UP
STAYING ON THE GROUND FOR AWHILE...WITH A POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADO.

As far as SPC tornado probs....15% hatched (sig severe) is what I see.

[Kung Wu]

How high do you see the tornado threat tomorrow?

Approximately 6 ft unless I am sitting when it broadcasts.

[DUShock]

@wsushox1: does it look to be most active east of ICT?

[wsushox1]

@wsushox1: does it look to be most active east of ICT?

Possibly, depends on how far west the dryline advances and when and where storm initiation occurs. I'm thinking the dryline will set-up around an ellsworth-sterling-anthony line....just slightly west of Hutchinson. We will see.

[DUShock]

Look who's in town.

[Cdizzle]

With last year's quiet season I didn't even pay attention to the convective outlooks. To piggyback off of @Shoxtastic's question, is "enhanced" a new level they wedged between slight and moderate?

So, we need to get Marshall a 'Moderate' package? Not sure I can afford those SASO dues.

[Shoxtastic]

To get technical....you have surface CAPE well over 3000 j/kg with very looped hodographs with Helicity values over 400, not to mention cloud bases around 500meters....that's a very juicy tornadic set-up. Storms will barely have to rotate to produce a tornado, with shear this good they will be rotating much stronger than "barely".

For example...the Wichita National Weather Forecast Discussion....



As far as SPC tornado probs....15% hatched (sig severe) is what I see.

[SB Shock]

Look who's in town.

Well.....its been good knowing ya

[SB Shock]

They have not pulled the string on the MODERATE yet, but hint that it may happen. Next update comes out at 8am

[The Coach]

Looks like the SPC is pushing the most significant tornado chances south and east of the turnpike.

[Shoxtastic]

Gotta think all the cloud cover will help keep things under wraps a little more today, no?

[wsushox1]

Gotta think all the cloud cover will help keep things under wraps a little more today, no?

The clouds will eventually move out of the area.

[SB Shock]

Looks like the SPC is pushing the most significant tornado chances south and east of the turnpike.

Depends on timing - for the most part yes, but I have seen in the data where after dark the parameters become more favorable for tornadoes with wichita in the bullseye. But i think still a lot of uncertainty - if they really had a good feel they would have a moderate risk up for those location they think are going to be in bullseye.

[SB Shock]

Gotta think all the cloud cover will help keep things under wraps a little more today, no?

if u recall the Andover tornado, that day started kind of like today. Then around peak heating, clouds broke up and things exploded. Now if they don't move out or break up then it would limit the potential or create a bust on the severe weather prediction.